by Nathaniel R
Looking at the calendar this morning on this blessed Inauguration Day, we realized with great alarm that the SAG, Globe, and Critics Choice nominations are just two weeks away so it's time to update all the Oscar charts again...
BEST PICTURE
What if we only get 7 nominees this year? This is the last year of our 'sliding scale' sort of Oscar competition after which we'll be returning to the 2009 and 2010 system of a clean top ten for Best Picture. Since 2011 when the system was introduced we've always had either 8 or 9 nominees but if you stop to think about it only six films have been dominant in the Best Picture conversation, such as it is: the state of America drama Nomadland, the race drama One Night in Miami, the prestige play adaptation Ma Rainey's Black Bottom, the heartland immigrant family drama Minari, the Old Hollywood ambitions of Mank, and the courtroom dramedy Trial of the Chicago 7. Lately provocative genre flick Promising Young Woman has been rising (though it still feels far outside Oscar's usual comfort zone) while First Cow (also outside Oscar's comfort zone albeit in far less obvious ways) and war veterans drama Da 5 Bloods have been holding steady if not looking like sure things. The fates of the other contenders are a little less clear. The western drama News of the World (which we had earlier predicted would be a strong contender) hasn't generated much conversation. There's still time to turn the latter around but it's looking worrisome. The Black Panthers drama Judas and the Black Messiah and the very well executed stage-to-screen adaptation The Father are obviously both going to try the last minute blitz approach to Oscar nominations which in this case means a big February push. But will that work? It feels risky in this chaotic awards season. Are there any other contenders? Soul, Tenet, and Never Rarely Sometimes Always hope so.
BEST DIRECTOR
If the Best Picture field feels narrowly as if it's only about six movies, Best Director appears even narrower still. Chloe Zhao is all locked up (with an unusual complete sweep of critics prizes) and David Fincher too given more traditional directorial ambitions and scale of not just his film but his whole career. Regina King has a strong foothold in this competition though we've hesitated to consider her locked because films that might best be described as acting showcases are sometimes the first to be dropped by the Director's branch. But beyond those three, doesn't it feel like anything might happen? With Zhao so far out front, that's going to give extra power to any ballots that don't place her first. Which directors will have a large enough pool of votes to place? We're currently predicting that Kelly Reichardt will be the surprise nominee because we've tried to imagine which director has enough devout fans that that could make a wee bit of a difference. We realize we've predicted a shortlist that's majority female and majority directors of color both of which are atypical for Oscar but 2020 was all about disruption of the norm.
CELEBRITY DIRECTOR BONUS POINTS? Fame might be important this year since there's such a distance between Chloe Zhao's critical triumph and every other contender. The Golden Globes in particular could well stock up on a "celebrity directors" field (which they've done before). David Fincher, Spike Lee, Regina King, Paul Greengrass, George C Wolfe, Aaron Sorkin, and even Chris Nolan all might benefit from being "known commodities" in a race that's bursting with so many fresh and lesser known artists like Lee Isaac Chung, Emerald Fennell, Florian Zeller, Shaka King, Eliza Hittman, and even Kelly Reichardt (who is on her 8th film but who has arguably never broken out in the public imagination) who all might eat into each other's "fresh voice" appeal.
BEST SCREENPLAYS
Promising Young Woman and Soul are rising in Original though we wouldn't call them locked. Adapted Screenplay feels much more settled with six very likely possibilities... but who gets left out? We're guessing i'm thinking of ending things which is probably a dumb guess since the Academy loves Kaufman screenplays!