by Nathaniel R
Zendaya smiling because the camera is absolutely besotted with her.
As strange as it is to note, it's still worth reiterating that Academy voters don't begin to fill out their nomination ballots for another five and a half weeks (!!!) A lot of things can change in that long of a stretch of time. Films and performances can move in or out of favor in two weeks time, let alone five! But here is where our crystal ball is right now...
BEST ACTRESS
McDormand and Davis all locked up. Mulligan getting there but we still worry that Promising Young Woman will be way outside Oscar's comfort zone. The other two spots could be more volatile than previously thought. I've boosted Zendaya up for Malcolm & Marie. She is giving you full movie star in this two-character Cassavates inspired picture and the camera just loves her. That said Malcolm & Marie will surely be divisive as some will find the characters insufferably narcissistic (and the running time of 106 minutes is a lot when you're only in one set with only two actors). But what is going on with Vanessa Kirby? She hasn't been boosted by critics so perhaps that Venice win that everyone was so convinced meant a potential Oscar player is not going to translate after all?
Steven Yeun facing considerable odds while farming in Minari and when Oscar campaigning in a stacked category
BEST ACTOR
Hopkins & Boseman all locked up but, honestly, it's still volatile otherwise. Lindo and Ahmed have critical support but do they have enough of it given the stiff competition and the fact that Boseman has received the lion's share of whatever critical boost actors can get from precursor season? Oldman and Ben-Adir have far more typically Oscar-friendly roles in Best Picture hopefuls but both feel vulnerable for very different reasons (lack of true love for the film and low profile, respectively). Meanwhile Yeun and Mikkelsen and Hanks have strong films and surely some degree of industry goodwill though we haven't seen them show up much yet in precursor season. But the televised mainstream awards could well change that -- SAG & Globe noms arrive in just two weeks time. Ben Affleck is still campaigning, too, and it's pretty easy to picture him as a surprise Globe nominee, isn't it?
Fishback in awe of Daniel Kaluuya (as Oscar voters were when they first noticed him in Get Out)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
The least competitive race in that only about 7 women feel like they're being discussed at all. But nobody yet feels like a winner which makes this exciting, don't you think? The obvious possible disruptor is fast-rising actress Dominique Fishback who is gifted with a role in Judas and the Black Messiah that is the kind of 'longsuffering girlfriend' stock part that Oscar voters often need a fix of. If they love the film, she could totally land in the nominee list.
See that? That's a textbook case of Category Fraud!
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The most confusing race, at least for this pundit. Something just doesn't feel right about any combo of five I toy with. Eager to hear your thoughts on this one. For the first time I've moved critical leader Paul Raci into the top five but honestly still very doubtful he can pull it off with so many more famous men with much larger roles vying for a spot. Do not get me started on Stanley Tucci's campaign. It's the most shameless category fraud we've seen in quite some time. It's as ridiculous as Rooney Mara in Carol or Jamie Foxx in Collateral or that time they tried to pretend that Keisha Castle Hughes from Whale Rider was a "supporting" actress (Oscar thankfully corrected the latter category fraud attempt though they usually don't mind).