by Nathaniel R
I'm just back from the Middleburg Film Festival, which we'll tell you more about soon, so I've mostly caught up with the Oscar hopefuls that have screened to date. The only true mysteries for us Oscar pundits now, other than how precursors will react, is the films that haven't screened very much or at all: West Side Story, Nightmare Alley, Licorice Pizza, Being The Ricardos, House of Gucci, and Don't Look Up. So let the revised punditry commence. The links go to the charts...
Is Lady Gaga still a big Best Actress deal -- people are impatient to see the actual HOUSE OF GUCCI now
BEST ACTRESS
Kristen Stewart has the lead but Spencer will be more polarizing than its first festival showings suggested (we think - it's all guesswork). The rest of the lineup is a mystery though Olivia Colman (The Lost Daughter) and Jessica Chastain (Eyes of Tammy Faye) looks strong for nominations. Can Jodie Comer place for The Last Duel or will people make a big deal about the rocky box office? A half dozen potential contenders still haven't screened much though -- will people love the performances by Rachel Zegler, Nicole Kidman, Lady Gaga, Jennifer Lawrence, Sandra Bullock, and Halle Berry in their forthcoming films?
Musicals have had rocky receptions this year but will TICK TICK BOOM starring Andrew Garfield turn the tide?
BEST ACTOR
Of all the acting races this one is the most clear as of October 18th with what feel like three sure things: Denzel Washington, Peter Dinklage, and Will Smith will probably be battling it out for the win but who will join them as nominees? We met with Clifton Collins Jr at Middleburg (interview soon) who is on the ongoing festival trail to promote Jockey and if Sony Pictures Classics really pushes we could see him in the lineup. It's the old Oscar story of "character actor finally gets a chance to carry a film and does so beautifully" that we've seen lead to first nominations for David Strathairn (Good Night and Good Luck) and Richard Jenkins (The Visitor) in recent years. But to get nominated for a small indie that's not hitting theaters until December 9th he'll have to get past much more famous men, like Andrew Garfield, Javier Bardem, and Benedict Cumberbatch among others in more-hyped productions. Who do you think the five nominees will be?
the most glamorous characters named "Ma". and "Pa" that you'll ever see - Caitronia Balfe and Jamie Dornan in BELFAST
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Can both Caitriona Balfe and Judi Dench land in the lineup for Kenneth Branagh's memoir Belfast? They could, yeah, as the whole ensemble is a delight and Balfe is glamorous and emotional as "Ma" and Dench funny and moving as "Granny". But currently we don't think they both will since this category is looking super-stacked. We still have high hopes for Toni Collette in the unseen Nightmare Alley (and that film also has Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara). Aunjanue Ellis has the "Oscar clips" we all talk about in the popular King Richard. Many are still rooting for that elusive first nomination for Kirsten Dunst in Power of the Dog. Ann Dowd is campaigning hard for the ensemble picture Mass (Martha Plimpton is also incredible in that film). Ruth Negga just dazzles in Passing. Sally Hawkins livens up Spencer. All the actresses are strong in The Lost Daughter. And we dont yet know what people will make of the acting in West Side Story, Don't Look Up, or Nightmare Alley which all could present viable contenders for this category, some of them quite famous!
In short, it's going to be a bloodbath and everyone will have a different take on who the five "Best" are.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
Of the five categories here's the one that feels the fuzziest. There are no "sure things" yet for various reasons though Ciarin Hinds and Jamie Dornan are both very viable contenders for Belfast. We think of the two Hinds is more likely since, though they're both fine in the film, Oscar voters like older men in this category and have a weird tendency (in both male categories) to pretend that extremely hunky leading men can't act until they've aged past extreme hunkiness which could be a hindrance for Dornan. Woody Norman might be a strong possibility for C'mon C'mon. Oscar voters dont often nominate male children (the last one was Haley Joel Osment for The Sixth Sense) but if voters fall for the movie itself, he'll be hard to ignore since he's 50% of the reason why. Kodi Smit-McPhee could also place for Power of the Dog but we'll see since he has internal competition for attention. There are also several big question marks. Among them: Can West Side Story make a star of David Alvarez in a previously Oscar-winning role? Will the small size of Bradley Cooper's role matter since Oscar voters now prefer total leads in supporting categories? Can Reed Birney or Jason Isaacs get any attention for heart-rending work in Mass? Are any of the men in Nightmare Alley viable in this category?
The long point is -- you'll see on the chart -- there are a lot of options but none many have really made a mark that screams WILL BE NOMINATED or WILL WIN yet.
So check out the charts and report back. What are you feeling about the acting races?