by Nathaniel R
While the Best Supporting Actress race, discussed yesterday (and chart updated), is a little fuzzy and possibly volatile with major performances still left to screen, Best Actor is feeling more or less concrete in terms of available possibilities. Mind you, the cement is still wet.
THE FRONTRUNNERS
Two time nominee Will Smith (King Richard) and one-time nominee Benedict Cumberbatch (Power of the Dog) have the early lead. Both films are widely screened and well liked and both roles are actorly showcases. Major stardom does a lot of footwork in building Oscar traction; they both have that advantage, too. But who will join them?
PROBABLY?
The Academy isn't overly fond of men leading musicals. The last winner in this regard was Rex Harrison for My Fair Lady fifty-seven years ago and, despite the surge of musical fare in the last two decades, only three leading men have received nominations: Johnny Depp for Sweeney Todd, Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables, and Ryan Gosling for La La Land. None of them had any real "winning" heat. Despite Oscar's indifference to men in this genre we think Andrew Garfield has a great shot for his impassioned turn in tick, tick... BOOM!
It will probably help that he's playing a real life person since Oscar loves biopics literally more than they love anything else. They're pretty kind to men (and women) in music films that aren't exactly musicals, too, even if the actor doesn't sing at all (see Rami Malek over Bradley Cooper - argh!) so maybe they'll confuse this musical with one of those, since it's both a biopic and a musical and he's playing a composer?
We also think Denzel Washington is likely for The Tragedy of Macbeth even if it's hard to get a bead on whether or not that will perform in a major way come Oscar time. The Academy loves Denzel (to the tune of 8 acting nominations and 2 wins) so basically as long as he's actually trying on screen, and not coasting through a mainstream thriller/actioner with gun in hand, they nominate him.
A BLOODBATH FOR THAT FINAL SPOT
That's four already so there's one spot up for grabs. We think there are five men looking lustfully at that final slot. The earliest one out of the gate will be Joaquin Phoenix for C'mon C'mon but that's a "soft" effortless role and they've only nominated him for harder full-tics performances. The other four are all opening in mid to late December so they'll be battling for in-the-moment attention with Denzel Washington as well as with each other for media coverage. Bradley Cooper could factor in for Nightmare Alley since he's an Oscar favourite who hasn't yet won but it's probably worth noting that Tyrone Power wasn't nominated for this (great) role back in the day even though he was a major star doing his all time best screenwork; not that Oscar ever liked Ty so it's not an exactly accurate comparison. Oscar voters also enjoy/know Javier Bardem who is doing Desi Arnaz Jr in Being the Ricardos. That film, which just started screening a few days ago (we're seeing it tonight!) has received some early gushing but early gushing is not the same thing as sustained gushing. Will it be his & hers nominations for that film or will it end up as an episode of This Had Oscar Buzz?
All three of those men are possibilities but at this writing we think the fifth slot will come down to either Peter Dinklage for Cyrano or Clifton Collins Jr for Jockey. We're still betting that Dinklage has the edge given that it's a classic awards-magnet role but they both have pros and cons. Dinklage has stardom and other industry hardware in his favor as well as an easy-to-love movie. But the studio MGM/UA has an unusually full slate so will they really push this one as hard as it can be pushed? It feels like the movie should have more traction already in other categories but few are discussing it. Sony Pictures Classics is better at Oscar campaigning (in general) and Collins Jr has a great narrative as a character actor finally getting a showcase and people like the film too (it just won AFI). He's been on the festival and awards circuit promoting it. We know that shaking hands and kissing babies (to use gross political cliches) helps so we'll see.
LONGSHOTS
If he weren't a little child, or if he were as good as say, Woody Norman in C'mon C'mon, (best child performance of the year, hands down) we'd think that Jude Hill might have a shot for Belfast. But Oscar rarely goes for child performances outside of the actress categories.
If the Globes were actually happening this year, we'd suggest that Simon Rex wouldn't be such an extreme longshot for his perfect casting and motormouthed comic turn in Red Rocket. But without that very high profile competition... well, unfortunately any comedy or musical-leaning films will likely have more trouble building traction in this first year without the Golden Globes since the only major awards body that ever took that kind of film seriously. (This may also hamper Andrew Garfield a bit since he could have easily won attention as a probable Globe winner)
Cooper Hoffman (Licorice Pizza), Nicolas Cage (Pig) and Oscar Isaac (Card Counter) could all really benefit from top ten lists, random precursor shout-outs, and critics prizes. But Mahershala Ali and Udo Kier (both in different films named Swan Song, for extra confusion!) will surely have to make do with strong reviews for their leading performances.
UPDATED CHARTS
best actor
best supporting actress
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