Who's got the lead in Best Supporting Actress?
Monday, November 15, 2021 at 3:50PM by Nathaniel R
Kiki in Los Angeles and Aunjanue in Savannah recently
“The internet,” by which I mean that diffuse vibe one gets by scrolling through twitter, and clicking on award and film sites, always likes to jump the gun. People have figuratively been handing out Oscars for months, well before the campaigns revved up. But the long season of direct FYCs has now truly begun with Q&As and screenings suddenly abundant on both coasts. So where are we at with Best Supporting Actress? Don’t believe anyone who thinks this race is already settled. The supporting categories are often the last to clear up as they’re quite dependent on the film that houses them, the strength of the campaign, and once nominations are announced, the narratives for the win. But we do have some nomination probabilities.
ALMOST SURE THINGS?
I’ve moved Kristen Dunst and Aunjanue Ellis to the top of the charts in this category partially because they have no internal competition from their own films for that golden ticket to the Dolby. More importantly their films, Power of the Dog and King Richard respectively, have major Best Picture buzz and that always helps...
They also have clear “Oscar clip” scenes. That’s a reductive way to look at performances, yes, but nobody who knows the awards game, thinks that that doesn’t matter in the grand scheme of the semi-arbitrary 'what and who has buzz' games. They were both soaking up the love in Los Angeles this week at AFI premieres.
Kirsten as Rose, and the Power of the Dog team at the LA premiere
For her part, Dunst is feeling the love. I had the pleasure of chatting for a few minutes with one of our long-time favs here at TFE at a Power of the Dog after party. She was in great spirits and resplendent in a full glam look after the AFI premiere. She shared that this all felt new to her which puzzled me so she elaborated; though she'd had well received performances before she’s never been in a film with this particular kind of across-the-board Oscar buzz before. She added that she’d love to finally be nominated, as much for her friends and family as for herself. In related news, in that the world really shouldn’t be discussing Dunst’s first nomination but her second or third, I’m happy to report that she still really loves Melancholia... as well she should!
ON THE CUSP
Bleecker Street’s Mass put some early effort into promoting Ann Dowd as the face of the superbly acted four-character drama but will the campaign keep up the push? And will the fact that Mass attracts a lot of different opinions on who is “best in show” matter? The trick for Bleecker Street will be getting voters to watch the tough-sell movie because once they do they'll be in love with the performances.
It would also be foolish to discount Ruth Negga who is magnificently bewitching in Passing in a very tricky role -- you’re meant to fall hard for her but also find her problematic and resent her for that same charismatic pull. It’s her best performance to date (onscreen that is -- we hear she is a powerhouse on stage, too).
And then there’s Belfast’s Caitronia Balfe and Judi Dench, competing with each other and with all the other supporting actresses for a spot in the line up. Balfe has an obsessive Outlander-born fanbase, but does that fanbase include Academy members? Dench is a legend and Oscar-beloved, too, but she has the smallest role of Belfast’s central quintet and of the five actresses we’ve already mentioned in this article. That might not matter given the love-letter Kenneth Branagh gives us via her indelible final close-up in the film.
WIGGLE ROOM AND "COATTAILS"
Sally Hawkins could be a coattail possibility with Kristen Stewart so strong in Lead Actress for Spencer. If Apple can rejuvenate the talk around CODA, Marlee Matlin is a possibility. And finally if The Lost Daughter pitch doesn’t get lost in Netflix’s overabundance of contenders, perhaps Jessie Buckley or Dakota Johnson could rise with the help of Olivia Colman's typical brilliance and the excitement around Maggie Gyllenhaal's heretofore unseen offscreen gifts.
STILL TO COME
Voting on nominations is still some time away so there’s plenty of time for other actors to rise up. Films that haven’t widely screened or are just beginning to screen this week and next include potential contenders like Rita Moreno or Ariana de Bose in West Side Story, Meryl Streep in Don’t Look Up, Toni Collette or Rooney Mara or Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley, Nina Arianda in Being the Ricardos
UNLIKELY BUT FUN TO “CONSIDER…”
Gaby Hoffman is just great great casting as Joaquin Phoenix sister in C'Mon C'Mon but will the film have any heat outside screenplay?
I’m personally obsessed with Kathryn Hunter as The Witches in Tragedy of MacBeth but the Academy’s acting branch is often quite conservative about what type of performances they enjoy and that would be one of the most unusual nominations ever (but a good kind of miracle)
Jayne Houdyshell reprises her Tony-winning role in The Humans
As touching as Alexandra Shipp is in the very traditional “longsuffering girlfriend” role in tick, tick… BOOM! that film really belongs to its men.
Charlotte Rampling gives us a double feature of wildly intimidating politically-savvy nuns in Benedetta and Dune.
Martha Plimpton is sensational in Mass but she hasn’t been out there pushing the movie as hard as Dowd has.
The internet has gone wild for Rebecca Ferguson in Dune but I’d eat my hat if that happened. I can’t see it at all even though I also think she’s wonderful as usual (what screen presence she has!) It’s just that the Academy’s acting branch doesn’t really respect acting within the sci-fi genre and there's no true "scene" to make the case for her (and it's only half a performance too as we'll see the rest of her take on the character in a couple of years).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - UPDATED OSCAR CHART
UP NEXT: BEST ACTOR
Reader Comments (24)
I'm pulling for a Ruth Negga nomination now that I've seen Passing. What a fascinating character and performance!
I do really hope Dunst is nominated too. I can't wait to see her film.
Can't wait to see PASSING. The trailers kind of made it look like a 2-lead film but it seems Negga is supporting and Thompson lead? No category fraud happening? (or maybe a borderline case you're OK with :)
I think 3 are done deals your top 2 and at least one of the Belfast ladies Dench is more likely.
I'll be happy when Kirsten gets the nomination but cannot say I was bowled over by her in it,
If Being the ricardo's hits I could see Arianda making the line up,i'm most passionate about Ruth Negga,she has surprised before.
Shame Plimpton's not going to happen though I don't think Dowd does either..
I thought Negga was definitely supporting. I can't imagine any argument for her being lead.
I'm seeing Power of the Dog this week, and have seen no other contenders;
that said, I'm all for a list that includes Dunst in the lead, a long-working character actress like Ellis having a moment, and a double-double from a movie as charming (looking) as Belfast.
And there are no blatant fraud cases, as far as I know.
This category is working for me - it's number one fan!
I have a feeling that neither Dunst nor Ellis is in, but Dench is.
Clayton Davis RAVED about Arianda in BTR.
Ana de Armas in No Time to Die is one of the supporting actress performances of the year. Everyone seems to agree shs's best in show. She lights up that movie, exits as quickly as she arrived, and leaves us wanting more.
Two more thoughts:
1. With Dakota in the running here, it means KStew AND the two stars of 50 Shades could all be nominated this year, which would make the Razzies SO MAD!
2. If Kirsten remains a front-runner, how long do we have to wait for a top 10 Kiki performances article?
Ruth Negga is remarkable as Clare and hits all the right notes. She's also so impressibley different here than she was in Loving, that it reminds me a lot of Daniel Kaluuya's two oscar nominations. While I don't think she'll miss, even if she does, she's made a strong case for herself here as a future winner. I also think Ruth is clearly supporting - she never really gets a scene without Reenie.
Not sure what's happening with Swan Song, but I wonder if Naomie Harris might be a contender. From the AFI fest she's recieved good reviews. While I was pulling Glenn, it looks like the role might be too small (even though her reviews are solid for what seems like more of a workman like performance).
I think Dunst will finally get her first nomination, but she doesn't strike me as a winner just yet. Her buzz seems equivalent to Seyfriend, who barely scored her nomination once all the Netflix auteur buzz died down.
Nightmare Alley and West Side story feel like huge questions marks.
Viola Davis in The Unforgivable seems extra ripe in that trailer.
Kiki Dunst
Ruth Negga
Dakota Johnson
Martha Plimpton
Caitrona Balfe
@Edward L.-Beacuase she's the only thing that isn't s**t in that movie doesn't mean she's deserving
Nathaniel, so glad to hear that Kirsten Dunst is a sweetheart in real life. I'm so happy for her success.
If Belfast is indeed a BP frontrunner, it's tough to see someone as respected as Dench getting overlooked for it.
Rampling in Dune would make my top 5 and perhaps would be my winner at this point. What an impactful use of her screen time (great casting). It's a pity she doesn't really have a chance.
I think both Balfe and Dench are in pretty comfortably. Dunst and Ellis at the moment too.
It'll depend on how hard the late contenders (Streep, Blanchett) hit.
I'm liking this list a lot. After watching Passing, I can't understand how all the buzz is with Negga and none with Tessa Thompson?? She was best in show for me, but maybe Best Actress is more crowded.
So happy for Dunst.
I’ve only seen a handful of these contenders (CODA, Passing, Dune) this far, but thought Negga was extraordinary and it definitely feels like the kind of role/performance to get awards attention (and possibly even the gold)!
I am very nervously optimistic about KiKi… and can’t wait to see Power of the Dog in a couple of weeks!
Any word on whether Netflix is giving the unforgiveable a big push? It's easy to see Viola scoring a nomination at SAG, and maybe even whatever the Globes are this year, and riding that wave to an Oscar nomination, even if it's for a scene or two of her yelling at Sandra Bullock. I'll admit, the trailer doesn't look amazing, but it does contain a lot of ACTING which worked for folks like Kathy Bates in the past.
Mass disappeared from screens very early. Even though Dowd is respected and is having a moment thanks to Handmaid's Tale, if no one sees the movie, her traction will stop. She needs Independent Spirit nomination and then for the praise to continue- maybe regional awards as well.
I do think that the academy wants to honor movies in cinemas this year- especially movies that made lots of money and brought back butts in seats. If Dune gets swept up in Oscar love, perhaps Ferguson has a chance. She is respected in the industry so maybe she has a chance. How adventurous will voters feel this year?
PP92: I'm trying to think outside the box. When someone gets glowing reviews for, what, ten minutes of screen time, they should always be considered a contender. I doubt that she'll get anywhere near the Oscar race for this performance but I want to acknowledge her all the same. Plus I rather like No Time to Die. It's not perfect, but there was much I enjoyed throughout.
Respect from the Academy and an excellent performance are 2 different things.
All the actors in Belfast are marvelous, but I think Dench has had her 8
minutes and the Mother should be the nominee.
Dunst REALLY should have been nominated for Melancholia. She'd won two major precursors, and she was fearless and brilliant
Kirsten Dunst's strengths as an actor are rare such that she internalizes a character so much that she imbues it. Perhaps her lack of nominations have to do with her not having Oscar clips.
The first time I won't be appalled by an all around sweep.