by Nathaniel R
Our favourite category! Not that Oscar chooses well but it's always the best acting category IN THEORY. So let's discuss Best Actress. You know you want to.
THE SURE THINGS
While Kristen Stewart has maintained the early frontrunner lead handily for her work as Princess Diana in Spencer, response to this past week's screenings of Being the Ricardos have suggested that Nicole Kidman could overthrow her for Oscar #2 for her work as Lucille Ball. She's sensational in the film, doing really interesting work (vocally and physically) differentiating between Lucille Ball and Lucy Ricardo, and also marrying some elusive internal issues like creativity, inspiration, ambition, with external stuff like a chain-smokers voice and the drama of the plot and multiple interpersonal conflicts. Ball's tetchy relationships and hot/cold rapports with each I Love Lucy cast and crew member is brilliantly differentiated and articulated. Besides, if any current one-time acting winner deserves a second statue, it's Kidman. This theoretical competition between Stewart and Kidman is interesting because both films originally raised eyebrows with their casting...
It doesn't get much more American Millenial casual vibe specific than KStew tasked with playing a legendary member of the stuffy British aristocracy. Kidman was met with all kinds of resistance when it was announced that she would be replacing Cate Blanchett as the famous midcentury comic icon. That public disapproval lasted from the casting announcement until the first day of screenings, flaring up with each new paparazzi set shot or trailer. But she aces the assignment, proving that it's a) really unwise to base your take on a performance on a trailer and b) even more unwise to doubt Nicole Kidman after all these years of giving major performances, often in unexpected roles and projects.
WHO ELSE?
The question of who will join Kristen and Nicole feels a lot more volatile with new arguments daily as to what the combo of five will look like. Two more movies with female leads are about to start screening (Jennifer Lawrence in Don't Look Up and Rachel Zegler in West Side Story) which could confuse things even further.
HOW MANY BIOGRAPHIES ARE TOO MANY BIOGRAPHIES?
The Academy's probable answer, given all the evidence, is "there are never too many!!!" Though the internet (at large) thinks Jessica Chastain is in danger for her dazzling performance in The Eyes of Tammy Faye we don't know that that's true. She finally has a project that could bring her nomination number three given that Oscar's all time favourite subgenre (statistically) is dramas about real life famous people whether they happen to be pure biopics like Jessica's or Jennifer Hudson's Aretha Franklin picture Respect, or if they lean more into true infamous story than 'story of a life!' as with Lady Gaga's star turn in House of Gucci. All three of those performance are big and showy which helps even if it shouldn't be an automatic plus. But if all three are nominated alongside Nicole & Kristen we would have a category that's 100% non-fictional characters which is improbable. Even knowing Oscar's preference for that kind of movie the most we've ever had in Best Actress is three at a time (unless we're forgetting an odd year with four?).
THREE PREVIOUS WINNERS ARE ALSO IN PLAY
Given that Olivia Colman is an actor's actor and has already won raves for The Lost Daughter she has to be considered a major threat for the lineup. While it's true that the character is thorny and unlikeable in some ways, Oscar has less trouble with that then they used to. Two more previous winners, Penelope Cruz in Parallel Mothers and Frances McDormand in The Tragedy of Macbeth have some buzz but how much? We're betting that Cruz has a lot more of it since its a much larger role and she's greatly missed while AMPAS might need a short breather from McDormand after her third win. On the other hand Sony Pictures Classics is risking a Christmas launch for the new Almodóvar which feels optimistic. Foreign titles generally need time to build with Oscar, even if they come from recognizable names. And her campaign won't have the natural boost of Parallel Mothers competing for Best International Feature, since it's not eligible there.
RISKIER BETS
Critics have gone wild for Alana Haim's charismatic acting debut in Licorice Pizza but the stuffier members of the Academy probably won't love Paul Thomas Anderson's nutty meandering 70s romp or its central romance (between a 25 year old woman and an, uh, 15 year old boy!). Tessa Thompson is just amazing in Passing, but Oscar voters have often struggled with subtle internal performances (even when they're this good). Jodie Comer has developed a passionate fanbase these past few years and received sterling reviews for The Last Duel but the film was labelled a "flop" by the media and that never helps with Oscar campaigns.
EXTREME LONGSHOTS
Had NEON actually given the romantic dramedy Worst Person in the World a big push and normal release we might have seen Reinate Reinsve capitalize on her Best Actress Cannes win but they're clearly just banking on a Best International Feature nomination in order to properly release one of the year's very best films (sigh). If Oscar voters were more adventurous by nature maybe we'd all be talking about Taylour Paige, another dazzling fresh star, in the hilarious and risqué Zola.
Other actresses that will have their fans but we dont think enough of them in this particular contest are Halle Berry in Bruised, Virginie Efira in Benedetta, Seidi Harla in Compartment No 6, Emilia Jones in CODA and more. The list goes on. Another fantastic year for leading ladies. Really every year is fantastic for worthy leading ladies but the media and the Academy dont always notice that fact.
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