BAFTA predictions? Why not!
Saturday, April 10, 2021 at 10:48AM
NATHANIEL R in Another Round, BAFTA, Bukky Bakray, Kingsley Ben-Adir, Nomadland, Promising Young Woman, Punditry, Rocks, The Father

by Nathaniel R

Rather famously the BAFTAs did a gigantic overhaul of their nomination process to insure gender parity and diversity in their nominations. Many of the individual category nominations were decided by tiny juries. But for the winners the whole voting body will vote. Given that the nominations themselves were impossible to foresee perhaps the winners will be too? So lets just try our hand at divining what might come to pass.

FILM

WILL WIN: This is actually a tough call. BAFTA has disagreed with Oscar more than we commonly think for the top category...

Usually when they do they choose a lesser film than Oscar chooses (though not always). Nomadland is probably only a soft frontrunner. But we're still going to predict it.
COULD WIN: The Father is more British and also excellent but being British doesn't always help you at the British Academy Awards. But really IF Nomadland loses any of the other four, aside from The Mauritanian, feel possible...especially The Father.  Though the Father could win the next category so maybe Chicago 7 is the correct answer here.

BRITISH FILM

WILL WIN: We think it's between Promising Young Woman and The Father due to their high profile. And we're going to be on The Father just because it feels like Promising is losing awards steam (curious) while The Father is still growing in estimation.
COULD WIN: On the other hand, there is Rocks. We can't speak to its quality as its only recently arrived for streaming in the US so didnt factor into awards in the US but it has a lot of nominations, too.

LEAD ACTRESS


  • Bukky Bakray - Rocks
  • Radha Blank - The Forty-Year-Old Version
  • Vanessa Kirby - Pieces of a Woman
  • Frances McDormand - Nomadland
  • Wunmi Mosaku - His House
  • Alfre Woodard - Clemency

    •  

    WILL WIN: Tough call since the one we would have banked on (Carey Mulligan) didn't make the cut. Will voters just embrace Frances McDormand for Nomadland even though she won so recently? She doesn't have 2 BAFTAs in the way she has 2 Oscars but voters are likely not keeping track of such differences. So we actually think they'll just go rogue here and honor Bukky Bakray in Rocks.
    COULD WIN: Some people are predicting Vanessa Kirby for Pieces of a Woman but we can't quite see it for some reason; she's been "just happy to be nominated" since Venice. So for an alternate let's say Frances McDormand.

     

    LEADING ACTOR

    WILL WIN: If any of the majors are not going to feel the need to honor Chadwick Boseman posthumously it will be BAFTA. On the other hand BAFTA isn't exactly known for rocking the boat awards-wise. So we think he'll win though we don't think he's locked the way he's been everywhere else.
    COULD WIN: Sir Anthony Hopkins has three competitive BAFTAs plus a Fellowship which is why we're not banking on him to upset. If there's a potential spoiler couldn't it be Riz Ahmed who is magnificent in Sound of Metal and also had Mogul Mowgli in contention. 

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS


    WILL WIN: Though Minari weirdly didn't show up in Best Film it did so well in the nominations overall that we think Youn Yuh-Jung triumphs here with all the Brits eating into each other's support.
    COULD WIN: Maria Bakalova might pull this off if they admire her bravery and the lampooning of American insanity.

    SUPPORTING ACTOR

    WILL WIN: Daniel Kaluuya has been sweeping supporting categories for his leading role as the Black Messiah so we've no reason to believe he won't continue that televised award sweep here.
    COULD WIN: If there's a shocking upset... no, there won't be. 

    DIRECTOR

    WILL WIN: Chloe Zhao will continue her sweep of Director prizes, even if Nomadland loses.
    COULD WIN: ..unless BAFTA voters are feeling really frisky and decide to honor a homegrown talent and go wth Sarah Gavron

    EE RISING STAR AWARD


    WILL WIN: Let's just guess and say Bukky Bakray because Rocks won't go empty-handed surely?
    COULD WIN: Kingsley Ben-Adir has the highest profile in the US of these actors but this is an audience vote in the UK and we confess we don't know how popular any of these actors are across the ocean. Some winners of this prize in the past have been very surprising. But he's easy to picture as a winner even though One Night in Miami didn't fare well in their nominations.

    DEBUT FROM BRITISH WRITER, DIRECTOR, OR PRODUCER

    WILL WIN: This will be the chance for Rocks to shine even if it loses elsewhere.
    COULD WIN: Unless Moffie has momentum? 

    FILM NOT IN THE ENGLISH LANGUAGE

    WILL WIN: We think this is a tight contest between Another Round and Minari but let's guess the former since it made the finals for Best Film and also showed up in Best Director
    COULD WIN: Minari

    DOCUMENTARY

    WILL WIN: I'm seeing a lot of My Octopus Teacher predictions online and though I'd like to be contrary for punditry sport reading through BAFTA's list of past winners in this category, when it differs from Oscar it's often for very digestable audience-favourite docs and this one qualifies. 
    COULD WIN: Collective.

    ANIMATED FILM


    WILL WIN: Throwing caution to the wind and predicting Wolfwalkers just for the helluva it. Maybe some BAFTA voters will be tired of the Pixar dominance and want to throw some love to Ireland's great animation studio.
    COULD WIN: ... we realize this is foolish and it will probably be Soul

    ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

    WILL WIN: Fennell didn't show up in Director so we think this is her chance for a BAFTA win and this goes to Promising Young Woman
    COULD WIN: Trial of the Chicago 7 could pull this off. But doesn't it feel like Another Round could as well? 

    ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


    WILL WIN: Nomadland has been dominant but if The Father is going to win anywhere for its great and formerly celebrated words, wouldn't it be at BAFTA? We can dream (partially because we don't quite understand why Nomadland has been winning screenplay awards -- a brilliant film but the script isn't primarily why) 
    COULD WIN: Obviously Nomadland has a great shot but as alternate we want to say The White Tiger because we can actually picture a shock win in our deep fried awards brain. 

    ORIGINAL SCORE

  • Mank - Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross
  • Minari - Emile Mosseri
  • News of the World - James Newton Howard
  • Promising Young Woman - Anthony Willis
  • Soul - Jon Batiste, Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

    •  

    WILL WIN: Throwing caution to the wind again here and going with Minari's gorgeous score here even though...
    COULD WIN: ...awards voters have been tirelessly obsessed with Soul

    CINEMATOGRAPHY

    WILL WIN: Nomadland
    COULD WIN: Mank

    COSTUME DESIGN

    WILL WIN: Though we think the race is tight for the Oscar between Ma Rainey and Emma, across the pond we doubt Ma Rainey is as well loved so we're guessing Emma.
    COULD WIN: Ammonite. It would surprise everyone but Michael O'Connor is a wonderful talent

    EDITING

    WILL WIN: The Father 
    COULD WIN: Sound of Metal

    PRODUCTION DESIGN

    WILL WIN: Mank
    COULD WIN: The Father

    MAKEUP AND HAIR

    WILL WIN: Pinocchio
    COULD WIN: Ma Rainey's Black Bottom

    SOUND

    WILL WIN: Sound of Metal
    COULD WIN: News of the World

    SPECIAL VISUAL EFFECTS


    WILL WIN: Tenet
    COULD WIN: Mulan

    CASTING

    WILL WIN: Rocks
    COULD WIN: Minari

    BRITISH SHORT FILM

    We confess we haven't done our research on this one so let's go with The Present which is very good and also up for the Oscar.

    BRITISH SHORT ANIMATION


    Same but we're going with The Fire Next Time which also played Sundance this year and combines stop motion sets with hand painted animation.

    Who do you think will win this weekend?

    Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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