by Nathaniel R
going to the movies in "Belfast"
It's been strange to have gone without TIFF, my once favourite festival, for two years running. As a result i have yet to see Kenneth Branagh's Belfast which did not play at Venice though its Oscar buzz is now quite loud. It recently won TIFF's People's Choice Award which has long been a strong Oscar bellwether. We'd argue that that connection is less causal than reflective of a "similar taste profile", though. The type of people who go to huge and accessible film festivals are not unlike Oscar voters in that their tastes lean mainstream but mainstream under the now niche umbrella (sigh) of "also art"...
It's a damn shame that the general public is no longer interested in the "also art" part, only flocking to ultra specific genres (animated comedies, superhero films) and sequels of hits. So many crowd-pleasing smash hit classics from film history would struggle to be seen at all if released today and they'd probably be labelled "films no one has heard of" like today's Oscar contenders often are, despite being discussed frequently by the media. But let's not get bitter and sidetracked!
In our 'year in advance' Oscar charts we had Belfast at #8 but it might well be the frontrunner now after the emotional responses at Telluride and TIFF. So for today's updates in Best Picture and Best Director and Original Screenplay we've moved Belfast up to the top position on all three charts. The acting chart updates yet to come but we'll definitely be moving Jamie Dornan and Caitronia Balfe who play "Pa and Ma" up in the supporting charts (which they're already on but not "predicted"... oops)
Generally TIFF's winner will go on to a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars and sometimes the win as in the recent cases of Nomadland, Green Book and 12 Years a Slave. But it's worth talking about the runners up too. Usually the runners up will also factor into the Oscar derby in some major way (though not necessarily in Best Picture as recent TIFF runners up like I Tonya, If Beale Street Could Talk, and One Night in Miami can attest). Unless of course they're not in the English language or happen to be Canadian (sorry, Canada. We love you!!!) and then it's more of a crapshoot since a lot depends on the vagaries of distribution and whether or not their countries submit them in the Best International Feature Film race.
This year the awards went like so:
BELFAST
SCARBOROUGH
THE POWER OF THE DOG
TIFF People's Choice - Belfast (UK)
Runners up: Scarborough (Canada) and Power of the Dog (New Zealand)
This is great news for Power of the Dog because, though it's terrific, it's not exactly a 'crowd pleaser' in any traditional sense so a mainstream honor like "People's Choice" is a sign that it has more mass appeal than you'd expect given the unsavory story and difficult characters.
As for the documentary 'people's choice' prizes they are a much less Oscar predictive honor, probably due to Oscar's complex process to landing a nomination in that category. Recent TIFF winners that did factor into the Oscar doc race were Faces Places, I Am Not Your Negro, The Cave, and The Square but only Free Solo to date has won both TIFF and the Oscar.
TIFF People's Choice Documentary The Rescue (US/UK)
Runners up: Dionne Warwick: Don't Make Me Over (US) and Flee (Denmark)
THE RESCUE
The Rescue, which is about the 2018 effort to say 12 boys and their soccer coach trapped in a flooded cave in Thailand, is actually from the directors of Free Solo, though, so watch out for that one. It opens in the US on October 8th.
Are you excited for Belfast and do you think it's the frontrunner already?