We're finally done with the post finalist Oscar charts. So have a look at the list. Whenever you finish prognosticating individual categories and start taking a more holistic view, it's easy to see how difficult the prediction game can be before the guilds narrow things down. Do I really think we'll have, not one, but two Best Picture nominees (Licorice Pizza, CODA) with only two nods each? No i don't. But what to cut and from which category? Do I really think Belfast will get as many nominations as West Side Story? I didn't think so but on the other hand...
On the Best Picture page
Let's take a risk and read the future trajectory and drop Nightmare Alley from the top ten. The initial recency bias of its first wave of big expectations and precursor succcess is fading and nobody is much talking about already. But expectations matter so it could coast in anyway. 8 Best Picture spots feel fairly secure which leads you to ponder which would get the boot in the old days of just 5 nominees: Power of the Dog, West Side Story, Dune, Belfast, King Richard, Licorice Pizza, CODA, and Don't Look Up. But the 9th and 10th slots are a truly a free-for-all...
I've opted to stick with Being the Ricardos due to its inside-showbiz appeal despite its review and give Tragedy of Macbeth a tiny boost thanks to recency bias for voters just now screening it. But really it feels like a free-for-all for those last two spots where almost any combo sounds reasonable with maybe one of those names or one or two of these: Tick Tick Boom!, Cyrano, Spencer, and Nightmare Alley and if you're feeling really daring and generous and believe the more niche forms of hype Spider-Man (we doubt it) or one of the foreign possibilities like A Hero, Hand of God, Parallel Mothers and Drive My Car. The latter is getting so much buzz now that I'm no predicting a screenplay nomination (why not, Adapted is relatively weak this year in terms of Best Picture heat) but still feel that A Hero is a more likely bet with Oscars overall.