Every other week, we’re polling The Film Experience Writers on where the Oscar race stands. These predictions were done just a day before the Golden Globes announcement. Most of the Best Picture contenders were cited by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association (except for Women Talking) but this set of predictions does not account for The Banshees of Inisherin suddenly leading the pack at the Globes.
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BEST PICTURE
Yes, The Fabelmans continues to sit on top of most people’s predictions. Still, the only place to go is down...
Since the movie has been underperforming at the box office (and not winning critics prizes either), The Film Experience writers have taken it from 145 points two weeks ago to 129 points now. Other movies getting number one votes this week include Everything Everywhere All At Once (which jumped up on spot), The Banshees of Inisherin and Top Gun: Maverick.
The biggest moves were by two potential hit movies. Early, rapturous reactions to Avatar: The Way of Water helped it jump up three spots to number six. If the movie is as big of a hit over the holidays as one expects, it may continue to climb up the chart. While it already had its (extremely brief) theatrical run, Glass Onion is set to be a big streaming hit on Netflix over Christmas. Many commenters voiced support for it last week and the buzz has only grown. It moved up four spots to crack the predicted top 10.
If some movies rise, others must fall. There hasn’t been any real flame outs in the past two weeks though. Babylon dropped two spots, likely as people came down from the coke-fueled initial reactions after first screenings. It’s still very much in the conversation though. On the outskirts of the top 10, Triangle of Sadness, Empire of Light, The Whale, Decision to Leave and She Said all got a little further from Oscar glory (though a Golden Globe Best Picture nomination and the EFA wins may help Triangle of Sadness for the next ranking). We also aren’t counting out Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, which continues to pick up steam in the Oscar conversation. On top of that, a few new films entered our predictions as dark horses - RRR, Aftersun and A Man Called Otto.
The Team
Before we jump into the other categories, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
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A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
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B.C. = Baby Clyde
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B.M. = Ben Miller
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C.J. = Chris James
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C.A. = Cláudio Alves
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E.B. = Eric Blume
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E.C. = Eurocheese
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E.G. = Elisa Giudici
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G.D. = Glenn Dunks
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N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
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N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
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BEST ANIMATED FEATURE
This is the week of Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio at The Film Experience. While it is now on the cusp of the Best Picture lineup, the stop-motion animated adaptation sits clearly on top of the Animated Feature category. It was unanimously predicted in the number one position by all writers. Right below it, we were almost unanimously in agreement that Disney’s Turning Red is in second place. Looks like we will have a Disney versus Netflix fight this year.
Things get a bit less clear going down the category. Both Marcel the Shell with Shoes On (which we were on the fence on if it would qualify - it now has) and Puss in Boots: The Last Wish have a good bit of support, but aren’t strongly predicted by all Film Experience writers.
What’s really up for grabs is the fifth slot. Right now, Dreamworks’ surprise hit The Bad Guys just barely sits there over Netflix’s other stop motion auteur project, Wendell & Wild. On top of that, many other smaller studios might find their way back into the race. Cartoon Saloon returns to the race with My Father’s Dragon, while GKids is touting Inu-Oh this year. Could Shudder finally break in for Mad God? Maybe ON Animation will break out with Little Nicholas, Happy As Can Be? Perhaps we are just overthinking and Disney and Netflix will pack the entire category with other films like Lightyear, The Sea Beast, Apollo 10 ½ and Strange World?
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BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
The Documentary Feature race has not firmed up yet in advance of the fifteen film shortlist. Even at the top, there is still quite a bit of dissent. Laura Poitras’ All the Beauty and the Bloodshed, which combines a biography of Nan Goldin with a movement against the Sackler family, sits atop our predictions as a group but even has some not predicting it to even make the lineup of five. Similarly, both Fire at Love, a love story between two volcano researchers, Navalny, chronicling a political assassination attempt, and Good Night Oppy, about a persistent Mars rover, have number one votes and some not including them in their lineup at all. Which will fall the way of Jane and be a high profile snub?
Then comes the up-in-the-air fifth slot. Right now All That Breathes is predicted to make it. Wins at IDA Awards will definitely help its case. High profile streaming documentaries like National Geographic’s The Territory and Netflix’s Descendant sit just outside the predictions, but could easily break in. If name recognition plays a factor, the hit documentary about David Bowie Moonage Daydream could also be a spoiler. There’s no shortage of documentary contenders. We will take another look at this category once the shortlist is announced.
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BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
Germany sits at the front of the pack of the Best International Feature category for their adaptation of the Best Picture winner All Quiet on the Western Front. It’s hard to argue with such an Oscar pedigree. However, there are plenty of challengers it will have to make it past. Post-Parasite, Hollywood is far more aware of South Korean cinema which had already produced several directors whose film can pack art house theaters. Directors like Park Chan-Wook! In the past, the Academy has undervalued Asian cinema with the exception of Japan. Given their recent embrace of both Parasite and Drive My Car, it stands to reason that the noir romance-thriller Decision to Leave can be a major contender in this category. The third film to be unanimously predicted for a nomination is Lukas Dhont’s new film Close, which will compete for Belgium.
Outside of those three movies, a competitive race emerges. The courtroom drama Argentina 1985 occupies the fourth slot in our predictions, thanks in large part to the push by Amazon Studios. There’s a three way tie for fifth place, held by very different movies. Denmark’s Holy Spider has a powerful fanbase, but could be too potent for some Academy voters. There’s a built in narrative for Joyland, submitted by Pakistan given the controversies upon its release (and short ban) at home. Finally, France could further extend its lead as the most nominated country in this category with the courtroom drama Saint Omer. What if we see other movies outside of these seven? Poland’s EO has plenty of passionate fans, but can a movie centered on a donkey melt the hearts of stuffy Academy voters? Having a big name director always helps, so Inarritu could be a default nominee for Mexico’s submission, Bardo. Maybe we should all be looking out for Corsage, starring the brilliant Vicky Kreips. As always with International Feature, there is surely at least one unexpected contender lurking around the corner. We’ll find out when the shortlists for this category come out on the 21st.
Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments below.
Previous Weeks:
Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot