Team Experience Predix - Round 1: Post-Thanksgiving Snapshot
Monday, November 28, 2022 at 11:00AM
We'll be polling Team Experience biweekly to get their (collective) take on the Oscar race. This week, the 'Big Six' categories and Screenplay prizes.
THE FABELMANS
BEST PICTURE
;)
Click to get expanded view.It’s a dangerous business to be an early frontrunner. However, if anyone can handle that title, it’s Steven Spielberg...
His semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans leads The Film Experience writers’ predictions, with all but three predicting it for the win. What’s its biggest challenger? Some have floated Everything Everywhere All At Once, which we all agree will be nominated, but three experts have ranked Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin as the one to beat this Oscar season. Just this weekend, The Fabelmans expanded to over 600 theaters and is slated to make over $3 million for the 5-day weekend. It remains to be seen if the film will successfully play throughout the holidays. Meanwhile, The Banshees of Inisherin has a soft $7 million gross and has already made its expansion play. It could be more widely seen once it goes to HBO Max in December. If box office was the main barometer for Oscar success, runaway hits Everything Everywhere All At Once and Top Gun: Maverick would be leading the race (and maybe they are?). Still, they are both predicted by all to be nominees. Even though it has not been released yet, UAR’s Women Talking is also unanimously predicted.
Outside of the top five, there’s a bit more dissent. TÁR has its passionate fans, but some think it may just miss out on Best Picture. This prediction recalls what happened to another Cate Blanchett masterpiece, Carol, which missed out on a Best Picture nomination in 2015. Babylon has inspired some divisive responses, but a majority of writers still think Damien Chazelle’s epic will still earn a nomination. Speaking of epics, Baz Lurhmann’s maximalist biopic Elvis is also predicted to get a nomination after a stellar box office run this summer. From there, the race really frees up.
One of the last question marks of the season is Avatar: The Way of Water, the sequel to 2009 nominee Avatar. A little more than half of the writers are carving out a space for the blockbuster in Best Picture. For the last spot, it seems that Triangle of Sadness could sneak into the Best Picture lineup. The Palme d’or winner has its fervent fans and it could be a fun way to reward Ruben Ostlünd. The most consistently mentioned also-rans are mostly movies that haven’t opened yet to the public. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio will drop on Netflix shortly and if it has strong viewership or if Netflix pays special attention to it, the film may find itself in Best Picture. Both The Whale and Empire of Light have courted some mixed opinions. Yet, if one or both of them have some indie success, that could help its case in Best Picture. Right now, Glass Onion is poised to gross $10-12 million in a one-week exclusive run and it will likely be the streaming event of the holiday season. Its popularity could propel it to a nomination.
The Team
Before we jump into the other categories, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
- A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
- B.C. = Baby Clyde
- B.M. = Ben Miller
- C.J. = Chris James
- C.A. = Cláudio Alves
- E.B. = Eric Blume
- E.C. = Eurocheese
- E.G. = Elisa Giudici
- G.D. = Glenn Dunks
- N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
- N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
BEST DIRECTOR
;)
Click to get expanded view.Steven Spielberg is the unanimous leader of the Best Director race for The Fabelmans. If he wins, this would be his third win in the directing category. The last time he won was for 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. Outside of Spielberg, there’s a lot of debate as to who will fill out the category. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Todd Field (Tár) all are predicted by a majority of writers. However, each has the potential to be snubbed.
The Oscars have been throwing bones to International directors as of late. Some of the writers have predicted Ruben Ostlünd (Triangle of Sadness), Park Chan-Wook (Decision to Leave), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo) or Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) to fill that slot. Many see previous winners Damien Chazelle and James Cameron as just on the outside of this race for Babylon and Avatar: The Way of Water, respectively. Once their movies open, their profile could be raised or lowered in this category. We even have one writer predicting Laura Poitras (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed) to be the first Documentary director to earn a nomination in this category. One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be an interesting race.
BEST ACTRESS
;)
Click to get expanded view.As Nathaniel noted a couple weeks ago, Best Actress is solidifying between seven women. Right now, Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) feel like the strongest locks, with Cate favored to win her third Oscar. Michelle Williams feels solidly in third place for The Fabelmans, with all but one writer predicting she makes the lineup. Things get interesting for the last two slots, with four women vying for placement.
Danielle Deadwyler has earned raves for her performance in Till, but will the low profile of the movie in other categories make her a potential snub in this category? Meanwhile, lovers and detractors of Babylon agree that Margot Robbie is fantastic in her committed, wild performance. That should be enough to help her break into the category, but it likely won’t be solidified until precursors are announced or the movie opens. Meanwhile, Viola Davis won raves for fan-favorite action-drama The Woman King. She’s still very much a force in this category, but the movie will need to have another key beat to drum up enthusiasm to boost her into the category. Speaking of enthusiasm, the Oscars clearly love Olivia Colman, having nominated her the past three years. This could propel her to a nomination for Empire of Light, but there will need to be more buzz for the movie overall. Just outside of the seven in the race are Jennifer Lawrence in the Apple TV+ drama Causeway and Ana De Armas as Marilyn Monroe in the controversial Netflix film Blonde.
BEST ACTOR
;)
Click to get expanded view.The race for frontrunner is tight between Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin. Six members of the team think Fraser is ahead, while four are putting their support behind Farrell. All of our members agree that Austin Butler will make the Best Actor lineup for playing The King himself in Elvis. Bill Nighy also is comfortably predicted by most for Living, with only Eurocheese placing him outside of the top 5.
It’s a real race for the fifth slot in Best Actor. Both Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) are tied for fifth place. Will the Oscars embrace a small indie hit, or give Cruise his fourth nomination for the biggest movie of the year? Some writers have also thrown out Hugh Jackman (The Son) and Diego Calva (Babylon) as potential nominees. Both Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) are waiting in the wings.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
;)
Click to get expanded view.The Supporting Actress race has yet to firm up. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) seem to be the strongest bets, with both competing for the win. Condon has six writers predicting her for the win, while Buckley has the remaining four votes. Perhaps this is because Buckley has internal competition, with Claire Foy also being widely predicted to earn a nomination for Women Talking as well. It remains to be seen how The Whale will play, but if it does well it seems like Hong Chau will earn her first Oscar nomination.
So who will get that last Supporting Actress slot? Right now, Nina Hoss (Tár) has the most support from the writers. However, she should watch out for a pair of Everything Everywhere All At Once women, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. If Triangle of Sadness performs better than expected, breakout star Dolly De Leon could also find herself nominated here. Carey Mulligan (She Said), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are also very much in the race for their recently released films.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
;)
Click to get expanded view.Best Supporting Actress isn’t the only category that could have two sets of multiple nominees from the same movie. Both The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans could accomplish the same feat. For The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Gleeson is the clear frontrunner for his arguable co-lead performance in the awards frontrunner. Meanwhile, Barry Keoghan gives a heartfelt and prickly smaller performance and is just outside of the top 5 of all writers. Meanwhile, both Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch are neck and neck in fourth and fifth place. Dano has much more screen time than Hirsch, but Hirsch has a one-scene-wonder bombastic performance that people will remember. Will these four performances take up four of the five possible slots?
It seems hard to fathom since both Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) are unanimously predicted to earn nominations. Both have scene stealing roles and are the lone supporting actor performances in their high profile Oscar movies. If we only stick to those six actors, that would mean 100% of the nominees would come from Best Picture nominees, presumably. Usumablally at least one or two of the supporting slots go to a movie outside of the Best Picture race. Who would that be this year? Brian Tyree Henry has won raves for his soulful performance in Causeway on Apple TV+. Recent winner Anthony Hopkins could contend this year for his performance in Armageddon Time. The only awards traction for Netflix’s The Good Nurse comes from Eddie Redmayne’s creepy portrayal of a murderous nurse. If these movies make it into Best Picture, some are predicting coattail nominations for Brad Pitt (Babylon), Michael Ward (Empire of Light) or Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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Click to get expanded view.Of the two writing categories, Best Original Screenplay has more major contenders than Adapted. This will make it a really tight race. Though The Banshees of Inisherin leads predictions from Film Experience writers, both Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Fabelmans are predicted to be nominated by all writers and even a couple think they could win. All three are in the hunt for Best Picture, so this category could be an essential predictor for who will take home the big prize. Beyond the three frontrunners, the team feels confident that Triangle of Sadness will make the lineup. After that, Todd Field’s Tár rounds out the predicted five, with all writers putting it within the top 7. With such a strong 5, who could be a potential challenger?
If Babylon is a big Oscar player, it could show up in Original Screenplay as a coattail nomination. However, Park Chan-Wook’s Decision to Leave could eke out a nomination if it finds enough fans in the writers branch. Bardo, Aftersun, Armageddon Time and Cha Cha Real Smooth also all hope they can ride wells of passion to contend in this category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
;)
Click to get expanded view.All Film Experience writers are in agreement - Women Talking is the frontrunner in Best Adapted Screenplay. Every single person has it ranked number one in their predictions. From there, the race becomes a bit more unpredictable. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Whale both have consistent, but not unanimous, support. Filling out the category, She Said and Living were cited the most by writers, but they are far from safe. In particular, She Said’s poor box office performance could mean waning support as time goes on.
So who could bump them out of the category? Two very different Netflix films are hoping to contend - Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Noah Baumbach’s White Noise. Both are Oscar mainstays, but it remains to be seen whether they will go with the well-reviewed stop motion feature or the more divisive Baumbach dramedy. Other cited contenders include the cannibal romance Bones and All, Florian Zeller’s drama The Son, the war remake All Quiet on the Western Front and box office juggernaut Top Gun: Maverick.
Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments.
Reader Comments (17)
I think you're seriously underestimating Glass Onion. It's fantastic in a very crowd-pleasing way. I think it will only get more popular, while some of the more dubious films (Triangle of Sadness, Babylon) start to fade. The only drawback is that it's a Netflix film, and their bizarre and arrogant release strategy may trigger an adverse reaction and a desire to punish them. But as for the film itself, it's a winner.
My only quandary is that no film from Netflix is in the top ten for Best Picture, a year ago some predicting them to get three and received 2 with 2 the year before. Pinocchio and/or All Quiet On the Western Front has to be a serious contender.
My own predictions in the acting races
Actor Butler,Fraser,Farrell,Cruise and either Nighy or Mescal not both
Actress Blanchett,Deadwyler,Williams,Yeoh and Ackie/Robbie whichever is the bigger hit
S Actor Gleeson,Dano,Hirsch,Quan and Henry
S Actress Curtis,Buckley,Foy,Hoss and Condon
Hmm, I don't know, I'm still skeptical about EEAAO. I adore the film and would love to see it dominate the awards conversation, but it is a very weird film, and I have anecdotal evidence that the film plays better with younger viewers than it does older viewers (some common complaints I've heard is that it's too silly or stupid, and that there's too much going on... that last one to me feels like a legitimate criticism given the length), and given that the Academy demographic still skews older, I wonder if it will play well with Academy members (if anyone knows of an Academy screening and have heard reactions from it, I'm immensely curious).
I also think a lot of you are underestimating The Whale, especially if Fraser is considered the frontrunner for Best Actor. Yes, it could be a Crazy Heart situation, but given that it's been over 10 years since that happened, I wouldn't predict a Crazy Heart situation to happen again any time soon (even Chadwick Boseman couldn't win without his film getting a Best Picture nomination, and his was a posthumous nomination with a very strong narrative). That aside, while the film is divisive, it's also drawing very passionate responses from those who love it (also from those who hate it, but almost every year has had at least one Best Picture nominee with very vocal detractors), and I remember the screening I went to at TIFF (which was a P&I screening), I heard so much blubbering.
As for Babylon, I'll withhold judgement until I've actually seen it, but some of the responses I've heard are downright hostile, so we'll see how it hits.
The Academy effectively redefined the Best Actor race last year. The coronation of Will Smith moved the award from Best Actor to Best Movie Star. He won for putting a lot of money in a lot of pockets over the years. He further benefitted from a ballot lacking an outstanding nominated performance.
At this juncture, I foresee a similar perfect storm gathering to benefit Tom Cruise. This will be his fourth nomination, making him overdue to many AMPAS voters. He gained considerable good will in the industry by refusing to allow Top Gun: Maverick to stream for many weeks. His entire career has been about putting money in pockets. And his competition is weak. Fraser’s film has divided critics, Banshees will be rewarded in other categories, (screenplay and supporting performance). Butler and Mescal are simply too young. The nomination will be their reward.
I see a victory for Cruise this year as inevitable.
Picture
Women Talking
(spoiler: Everything, Everywhere All At Once)
Director
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
(spoiler: Todd Field, Tàr)
Actress:
Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
(spoiler: Cate Blanchett, Tár)
Actor:
Brendan Fraser, The Whale
(spoiler: Colin Farrell, The Banshees of Inisherin)
Supporting Actress:
Kerry Condon, The Banshees of Inisherin
(spoiler: Hong Chau, The Whale)
Supporting Actor:
Ke Huy Quan, Everything Everywhere All At Once
(spoiler: Judd Hirsch, The Fabelmans)
Adapted Screenplay:
Women Talking
(spoiler: The Whale)
Original Screenplay:
Everything Everywhere All At Once
(spoiler: The Banshees of Inisherin)
Best Picture win ranking...
1. Women Talking
2. Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. The Banshees of Inisherin
4. The Fabelmans
... I don't really think anything else can take it.
Finbar interesting idea,I think he gets the 4th or 5th spot,I think either Nighy or Mescal takes one of those other spots,a win for Cruise i'm not so sure.
I personally don't see how Curtis can miss,everyone has 6th or 7th in their rankings and I don't see how,it's an about time moment for her in a film they are seemingly embracing,I don't see Hoss,Chau,Condon,Foy,Buckley or Hsu as winners.
Cruise nominated for grinning like a cocky asshole and pretending to play God? Let it not be so.
In the battle of the old Jewish father figures, I choose Anthony Hopkins over Judd Hirsch by a mile.
What a shame Anne Hathaway isn't in the conversation. Or Émilie Dequenne, who is fabulous in CLOSE.
Richter, from what I've heard the initial EEAAO Academy screenings were very enthusiastic, with even those who didn't care for it reporting the reaction was very positive. I have also read that younger Academy members (which I realize is a smaller group) have been effusive but older members have expressed in some cases that they don't get it. The big questions to me are if the craft branches will support it and whether it will hit Supporting Actress or not. A BP win would be a challenge because of the preferential ballot, but I think nomination misses for BP, Actress, Supporting Actor, Screenplay and even Director would be met with a loud reaction (and in a way, I feel like the Directors branch might defend it more than the others).
I wonder if The Inspection is going to be one of those movies that feels "on the fringe" of everything until suddenly it's getting Globe nods, then enthusiastic attention from SAG, and misses completely (or overperforms) with Oscar nominations.
Wae: She's really, really good in Close. It's true.
I haven't seen Women Talking yet (love Sarah Polley - can't wait), but I find it interesting that something that sounds so dry and potentially difficult is such an easy call in so many categories.
Margot Robbie is in. She's the Sharon Stone of this race, the exuberant nominee in a mixed-reviewed gargantuan messy movie.
Of course, the problem for me with predictions is that I choose with my heart and not my head.
For picture, I see it as FABELMANS vs EEAAO. Other likely nominees will be TOP GUN and BANSHEES, which may get a lift from being on HBO. TAR will probably pick up some critics awards that will guarantee it a place.
After that, roll the dice. From what I understand of the balloting process and mathematics, a film with very few votes could end up in a mandated top ten.
SPIELBERG for Director is a close to a lock as we get this year. After that, Daniels, McDonagh, Kosinski, maybe Gina Prince-Bythewood or Cameron or Polley.
ACTRESS,is Yeoh vs Blanchett. Cate's two other wins and the picture's lukewarm B.O. may be factors. This may be a category with an upset. Deadwyler and Williams are the two other likely nominees. After that, anybody's guess.
ACTOR. Fraser's lead is hard to evaluate since the distributor is hiding the movie. Critical support for some other actors–Farrell, who gave three great performances this year, and Mescal— will tighten up the race, but sentiment might still rule. Like Fraser's, Nighy's movie has been MIA, and given guild voting, that seems a mistake. I'd bet Butler (the only good thing about ELVIS) and Cruise slip in there.
SUPPORTING ACTRESS. With no apparent frontrunner, I'd go with an all-star lineup: Bassett, Curtis, Mulligan, and then Condon and Buckley.
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Probably Quan vs. Gleeson, with Dano, Whislaw, and Hirsch distant competitors.
ADAPTED. Polley may get a win here.
ORIGINAL. McDonagh seems likely.
Earlier in the season I thought Fraser was a sure thing for The Whale, but I now think Farrell will likely win Best Actor. It seems A24 is dropping the ball on the campaign, as they are wont to do. Apparently they recently sent out a batch of physical streamers to voters for every movie they released this year, except The Whale. And of course, there is much more to Farrell's Banshees performance than one might think from the description.
I also think there is a "spread the wealth" tendency to award the big critical hits of the year in the marquee categories at the Oscars, which will benefit Farrell and Michelle Yeoh, especially if Fablemans does take Picture and Director.
If the apparent goal is to make the Oscars more popular by including movies that have good box office, are popular, and are actually good movies, then we are underestimating these 3:
- The Glass Onion
- The Woman King
- Wakanda Forever
The Glass Onion played in the same number of theatres (600+?) as The Fabelmans this week and had 4 times the box office.
In a field of 10 Best Films, it will look odd if the 2 movies with African-American ensembles are left out, when they have been critically and financially successful.
What exactly do movies with African-American ensembles have to do, to overcome the reasons they are left out? It seems these 2 movies are: not “quite” good enough; too popular; too niche; too genre; too serious; too lightweight; too much character study; too much action; too many women in the cast for an “important” movie; don’t “resonate”; not really meaningful.
It would be so disheartening if these movies were ignored, and the last minute call for diversity was filled by the tired story that seems to be the only one in some voters comfort zone: slavery in the American South, with a cast of men, lots of violence towards black characters (seriously, why do they never get tired of that?), and the lead actor a mediocre celebrity.
I'm legit surprised not as many people think ELVIS is even top ten let alone top five. Curious.
Excellent points by Amy Camus and McGill, re: Glass Onion and particularly McGill's comments on critically and financially successful films with African-American ensembles. I personally think both the Glass Onion and The Woman King are both in.
There is some disconnect between what I'm reading about Babylon and the Oscar buzz. Not sure why it's still getting across the board prediction, I guess because its just such a BIG movie. I think the box office of this one will be the determining factor in its chances across the board. With its sizeable budget, it could easily generate some rough headlines if its not a massive financial hit (which has been a tough hill to climb for many great films this year, let alone divisive mixed bag releases),
Avatar 2 might hit at just the right time to ride the wave in, but it makes me roll my eyes in such a good film year.
Broader question - in a post-covid film landscape, how much does box office matter for best picture buzz? It seems that the relative importance of a sizeable box office may be diminishing, but also seems to affect different films in different ways. I guess the answer is "its complicated" but can't help but think the tepid $ response to The Fabelman might make it less of a sure thing than currently projected.