Is Margot Robbie about to shake up the Best Actress race?
Sunday, November 13, 2022 at 4:47PM by Nathaniel R
While it would be foolish to consider any Oscar race locked up before any mainstream precursor nominations have been announced, Best Actress sure feels like it's solidifying as a race between Cate Blanchett, Michelle Yeoh, Danielle Deadwyler, and Michelle Williams. Any of them (except Cate of course) could be a surprise snub if precursor season throw us curveballs. If it's true that the race has narrowed down to these four (again that's only the assumption) than the fifth slot is where the drama is at the moment. Former Oscar winners Olivia Colman and Viola Davis remain distinct possibilities (when Oscar loves you, they love you) and people will start seeing Margot Robbie's performance in Babylon this week. If her star turn is as juicy and fun and focus-seizing as the trailer suggests, it's hard to picture her not being in the hunt for that third nomination. Perhaps she'll emerge from the first reviews as a genuine threat for a win if the first audience raves as much as her co-star Eric Roberts is raving about her. We know that the internet likes to "solve" categories long before the first mainstream precursor announces but it's important to keep an open mind before films are screened. If she seizes the imagination of the audience with her drug-addled wild-child movie star, the sky might be the limit. For now, on the updated chart, we'll place her fifth.
What does your hunch say about who the nominees will be and who might have a true shot at the win?
Babylon, Best Actress, Margot Robbie, Oscars (22), Punditry
Reader Comments (37)
It's Cate's to lose. If Francis Mcdonald can win a third for a fine performance, I don't see any reason against giving Cate that Oscar. Michelle Yeoh and Danielle Deadwyler will not have any chance because the majority of the voters are white. Neither will Michelle Williams and Margot Robbie because their roles are supporting.
reviewer2 -- you have not seen BABYLON yet so you dont know this. also *lots* of people have had trouble winning third Oscars. look how long it took Meryl Streep and it wasn't from lack of worthiness.
Yeah, at this stage I am feeling that Cate is in a similar position to Kristen Stewart a year ago - front-runner now, loses momentum later (although I don't think Cate will lose AS MUCH momentum as Kristen did). Right now, my forecast for 3 months time is for sentimentality to get either of the Michelles over the line (Yeoh for long career and historical racial inclusion, Williams for "it's time/she's overdue".
as long as her oscar clip can be "who wants to see me fight a fucking snake??"
reviewer2 said it - if Frances McDormand can win a third for a meh performance (after winning a second for a meh performance - oh and the first one too) then Cate then DEFINITELY be awarded a third - especially since it is a deserving performance - unfortunately it is rare that the best performance actual wins hahaha ;)
I don't get the whole 'it's time/she's overdue' for Michelle Williams - i don't find her all that great - and from the trailer of The Fabelmans, her performance seems like a caricature to me.
Of course, after last year and my vocal dismay at having both Ann Dowd AND Simon Rex missing out on nominations, I always hate to make my feelings known, because the academy always seems to go the other way lol. So since i said the above - Cate won't win and Michelle Williams will, just to piss me off ;)
Seems really strange to be pissed off by a performance that you, by your own admission, haven’t even seen yet?
Ben1283 - you got me there haha. I think that’s why I need to keep my opinions to myself.
I L O V E Tang Wei in Decision to Leave. She keeps you guessing to the very end. Amazing femme fatale.
McDormand has three fantastic wins. Don't see the need to trash her to make a point. It is not crazy to think that Tár is not their taste.
Till has failed at the Box Office. Feels more like a ↓ than a ↑
I'm keeping Davis in fifth until I hear more confirmations on Robbie. God help them if they snub Yeoh! Blanchett is certainly top of the pack at the moment, but early frontrunners have to carry their mantle all season. I did speak to people at AFI who referred to her work as "cold" - something that wouldn't be a deterrent if the same role was played by Daniel Day-Lewis, but unfortunately, still a factor with these voters. (My personal vote would be Yeoh, though Blanchett and Deadwyler would also rank high among my all time winners.)
I know the Blanchetters will come for me by saying this but she is not a superstar like Meryl,Jack or Katharine when they won a 3rd,a great actress and big star yes but a third win for a film like Tar will be difficult.
McDormand only won a 3rd cos of the weird year.and Daniel was playing Lincoln when his third came.
Williams seems to me like the one to beat,an overdue 4 time nominee in a Spielberg nostalgia piece.
I don't see them rewarding Yeoh,I see EEAAO as a showcase for the directors and not so much the acting,and there is a lot of mugging in that film.
My hunch is Deadwyler wins,it's about time Halle's record was broken.
Robbie could compete as a late breaker but my money is on Naomo Ackie to take the 5th spot,more likely than numbers 6 - 10.
Around voting time her film will be everywhere and she is playing one of the most famous female vocalists of all time and the film looks to have some meat on it judging from the latest trailer but it could be all flash no substance.
Colman,Davis,Lawrence will have to sit this year out though the Globes will give them a boost and keep them in the conversation.
As to Frances McDormand, her three wins have come from Best Picture Nominees/Winners. I do not think Tár will be nominated for Best Picture, hence hindering Cate Blanchett's chances to a win.
The Michelles, The Blanchett, The Robbie: that’s all I want to see, with the 5th spot emerging from an international player. Let’s forget about Frances and her bizarre track record for a moment, please.
I'd love to see Blanchett win for TAR because it's the best she's ever been.
But at the rate she's giving these massive performances, you know she's good for more of them. She will no doubt hit another home run in the next five years. That makes it hard to create a sense of urgency.
McDormand luckily gave great performances in films that were Best Picture frontrunners for some or all of their respective seasons. That's an advantage actresses rarely get, and she got it twice.
Cate can get nominated for all the original, genius performances she wants. You know she's not getting a 3rd win until she makes some dull bait with a title like "Angels of War" or "For Love of Country: The Dr. Jill Biden Story"
Quick correction to the above—Blue Jasmine is still (IMO) the best Blanchett has ever been, but TAR is a close second, ahead of Carol. :)
The fact that they are screening Babylon this early shows me that the studio is extremely confident in their film. And if Robbie is as fantastic as I expect her to be (🤞) she could definitely win. In fact, if the five nominees end up being Robbie, Deadwyler, Blanchett, Yeoh, and Williams we not only end up having an all-timer lineup in Best Actress but a rare case where any of the five could win.
It troubles me that Robbie in Babylon does not look period-appropriate at all. I don't think this will factor in her Oscar chances, though, unless there is a general backlash against the movie for its lack of fidelity to accuracy (Sam Wasson was already blasting it, sight unseen, for this very reason on Little Gold Men last week).
I agree with those who think the McDormand/Blanchett comparison is inapplicable. McDormand probably would not have won her third if she had competition from someone as strong as Yeoh and she was doubtless helped by starring in the Best Picture winner.
Agree that Till is a flop and Deadwyler is questionable because of it.
Till has grossed over $8 million to date.
Last year’s Best Actress winning film The Eyes of Tammy Faye had a worldwide gross of $2.6 million.
Deadwyler is certainly still in the race. Obviously box office is no longer the compelling factor it once was.
Going back 25 years you haven't neede box office if they love the performance Swank in 99,Berry in 2001,Cotillard 2007,Moore 2014,Larson 2015,Zellweger in 2019,McDormand in 2020.
Try splitting the ladies into Globe categories and you still get almost the same top 10
Drama Blanchett,Deadwyler,Williams,Davis,Colman
Comedy.Musical Ackie,Robbie,Roberts,Yeoh,Thompson
I see the race as:
Blanchett 100% lock
Yeoh 95% to be nominated
Deadwyler 85% to be nominated
Williams 80% to be nominated
Then that fifth spot! Colman for now, pending academy member reaction to Empire of Light.
Anyone who thinks that McDormand is meh in Nomadland doesn't know a thing about acting. Having said that, Robbie only needs the movie not to be a drag to become the instant frontunner.
At first I didn’t think Blanchett would get a third but then I remembered McDormand won hers in the most competitive actress race in decades. Maybe Blanchett has more of a chance winning then we think.
At first I didn’t think Blanchett would get a third but then I remembered McDormand won hers in the most competitive actress race in decades. Maybe Blanchett has more of a chance winning then we think.
My prediction is Cate will win her third. Deservingly so. And I don't believe anyone is thrashing McDormand just because they don't like her Oscar-winning performances. One of the least attractive traits a person may have is to to tell others that their judgement on acting weighs more than others. What bullshit and ego. Back to the Oscar race, again I think the Oscar is Cate's to lose. Her performance was incredible - as good as if not better than Blue Jasmine's.
"Anyone who thinks that McDormand is meh in Nomadland doesn't know a thing about acting."
Amen. That's not to dog on anyone, but Nomadland really moved me in a way that is extremely rare.
I disliked her second win very much, I thought there were several other ways they could've gone with Best Actress that year... but I could not begrudge her having a third because that one was undeniable for me. She was the clear best in that category and to say otherwise felt like looking at things outside the performances / films.
I digress... this year, I'm praying for Michelle Yeoh. I can't imagine her missing the nomination at this point, but I want the win too! And for those that enjoy the politics of it, her win checks career honors and diversity boxes too, so I hope the stars align. EEAAO instantly became one of my favorite films of all-time.
I see your point about Robbie. Almost every nomination slate has a spot for the “hot and sexy role of the year”. Robbie fills that, and is a very good actress, hard working and respected, who brightens every film she’s in.
I’d put Zoe Kazan in “She Said” in the top 10. She’s a third generation Hollywood craftsperson, who has proved herself as an independent artist. She’s one of their own, in one of their own stories.
My core three preferences are Michelle Yeoh, Viola Davis, and Danielle Deadwyler, but it’s a wonderful year, with so many notable and worthy actress performances.
McDormand was great in Fargo, but she was like third-best after Emily Watson (top 10 performances ever) and Blethyn. Her second win was acceptable, but the line-up was not that great.
That said, her third win was unimpeachable. It's her best performance, in what is probably the best movie she's ever starred in.
I know first reactions should be taken lightly but it kind of looks like Robbie is not going to shake things up if at all,so Naomi Ackie is the late breaker who could change the race.
Jessica Chastain and Danielle Deadwyler are not comparable. Chastain is a movie star who was perceived as overdue for an Oscar win last season. She probably got a fair number of votes from people who didn't even bother to watch Tammy Faye. Deadwyler is probably best known for appearing in two episodes of Watchman. She needs people to love her actual performance and film to nominate her, the way they loved Brie Larson in Room (and that movie was an actual box office hit, earning $36 million domestically).
The low box office for Till is concerning for its Oscar chances. It indicates people just do not want to engage with such a difficult subject matter this year, when they are confronting difficulties in their own lives. The same could very well be true of Academy voters.
Deadwyler certainly has a chance at this point, but she also could easily be overtaken by actresses like Davis and Colman who seem beloved by the Academy.
@Jules
Till has made 8m so far. On the other hand, Tar has made 4m (and is headed to VOD next week) and Banshees… & Triangle of Sadness have both made around 5m (domestically).
I’m confused how this is bad for Deadwyler when her film is more successful than others released in the same month.
Mr. Ripley : there have been some raves sure but the pans are VICIOUS. I too have taken her out for now. That fifth spot seems to again be up for grabs.
Guy: I completely agree. The days when all of these specialty titles make 20 million are a thing of the past. It's a sad state of affairs but I too am curious why everyone is focusing on Till's box office failure when it's outgrossing other films?
I haven't seen Till yet but it looks and sounds to be a sturdy and successful historical biopic.
I don't think the box office is concerning. But promotion hasn't been great, skipping the major festivals deprived Deadwyler of the red carpets and interviews that lend themselves to awards buzz for a new star. Maybe her magazine spreads and "campaign" are still coming, but it's been a low-profile release compared to typical Oscar vehicles.
I don’t think she’ll have trouble getting nominated in this year.
BABYLON is gonna be a box office bomb lol
Robbie has to compete with Olivia Colman and Viola Davis for the fifth spot.
CATE will be the youngest three-time winning actress
@Guy - Till went wide in 2000 theaters its 3rd week, which suggests the expectations for it were high. The expectations for Tar were never very high. It has been in 1000 theaters max. Banshees is a typical slow Searchlight expansion that will probably do quite well eventually, because word of mouth for it is strong. It s still expanding and hasn't even been in 1000 theaters yet.
I wish Emma Thompson was gaining traction. She is phenomenal in "Leo Grande" and I know it's a much hated phrase, but she is so, so brave. It's a bare your soul and body performance. Florence Pugh deserves a nomination for something just for weathering the storm that was "Don't Worry Darling."