We'll be polling Team Experience biweekly to get their (collective) take on the Oscar race. This week, the 'Big Six' categories and Screenplay prizes.
THE FABELMANS
BEST PICTURE
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Click to get expanded view.It’s a dangerous business to be an early frontrunner. However, if anyone can handle that title, it’s Steven Spielberg...
His semi-autobiographical film The Fabelmans leads The Film Experience writers’ predictions, with all but three predicting it for the win. What’s its biggest challenger? Some have floated Everything Everywhere All At Once, which we all agree will be nominated, but three experts have ranked Martin McDonagh’s The Banshees of Inisherin as the one to beat this Oscar season. Just this weekend, The Fabelmans expanded to over 600 theaters and is slated to make over $3 million for the 5-day weekend. It remains to be seen if the film will successfully play throughout the holidays. Meanwhile, The Banshees of Inisherin has a soft $7 million gross and has already made its expansion play. It could be more widely seen once it goes to HBO Max in December. If box office was the main barometer for Oscar success, runaway hits Everything Everywhere All At Once and Top Gun: Maverick would be leading the race (and maybe they are?). Still, they are both predicted by all to be nominees. Even though it has not been released yet, UAR’s Women Talking is also unanimously predicted.
Outside of the top five, there’s a bit more dissent. TÁR has its passionate fans, but some think it may just miss out on Best Picture. This prediction recalls what happened to another Cate Blanchett masterpiece, Carol, which missed out on a Best Picture nomination in 2015. Babylon has inspired some divisive responses, but a majority of writers still think Damien Chazelle’s epic will still earn a nomination. Speaking of epics, Baz Lurhmann’s maximalist biopic Elvis is also predicted to get a nomination after a stellar box office run this summer. From there, the race really frees up.
One of the last question marks of the season is Avatar: The Way of Water, the sequel to 2009 nominee Avatar. A little more than half of the writers are carving out a space for the blockbuster in Best Picture. For the last spot, it seems that Triangle of Sadness could sneak into the Best Picture lineup. The Palme d’or winner has its fervent fans and it could be a fun way to reward Ruben Ostlünd. The most consistently mentioned also-rans are mostly movies that haven’t opened yet to the public. Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio will drop on Netflix shortly and if it has strong viewership or if Netflix pays special attention to it, the film may find itself in Best Picture. Both The Whale and Empire of Light have courted some mixed opinions. Yet, if one or both of them have some indie success, that could help its case in Best Picture. Right now, Glass Onion is poised to gross $10-12 million in a one-week exclusive run and it will likely be the streaming event of the holiday season. Its popularity could propel it to a nomination.
The Team
Before we jump into the other categories, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
- A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
- B.C. = Baby Clyde
- B.M. = Ben Miller
- C.J. = Chris James
- C.A. = Cláudio Alves
- E.B. = Eric Blume
- E.C. = Eurocheese
- E.G. = Elisa Giudici
- G.D. = Glenn Dunks
- N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
- N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
BEST DIRECTOR
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Click to get expanded view.Steven Spielberg is the unanimous leader of the Best Director race for The Fabelmans. If he wins, this would be his third win in the directing category. The last time he won was for 1998’s Saving Private Ryan. Outside of Spielberg, there’s a lot of debate as to who will fill out the category. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Sarah Polley (Women Talking), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Todd Field (Tár) all are predicted by a majority of writers. However, each has the potential to be snubbed.
The Oscars have been throwing bones to International directors as of late. Some of the writers have predicted Ruben Ostlünd (Triangle of Sadness), Park Chan-Wook (Decision to Leave), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo) or Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front) to fill that slot. Many see previous winners Damien Chazelle and James Cameron as just on the outside of this race for Babylon and Avatar: The Way of Water, respectively. Once their movies open, their profile could be raised or lowered in this category. We even have one writer predicting Laura Poitras (All the Beauty and the Bloodshed) to be the first Documentary director to earn a nomination in this category. One thing is for sure, it is shaping up to be an interesting race.
BEST ACTRESS
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Click to get expanded view.As Nathaniel noted a couple weeks ago, Best Actress is solidifying between seven women. Right now, Cate Blanchett (Tár) and Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) feel like the strongest locks, with Cate favored to win her third Oscar. Michelle Williams feels solidly in third place for The Fabelmans, with all but one writer predicting she makes the lineup. Things get interesting for the last two slots, with four women vying for placement.
Danielle Deadwyler has earned raves for her performance in Till, but will the low profile of the movie in other categories make her a potential snub in this category? Meanwhile, lovers and detractors of Babylon agree that Margot Robbie is fantastic in her committed, wild performance. That should be enough to help her break into the category, but it likely won’t be solidified until precursors are announced or the movie opens. Meanwhile, Viola Davis won raves for fan-favorite action-drama The Woman King. She’s still very much a force in this category, but the movie will need to have another key beat to drum up enthusiasm to boost her into the category. Speaking of enthusiasm, the Oscars clearly love Olivia Colman, having nominated her the past three years. This could propel her to a nomination for Empire of Light, but there will need to be more buzz for the movie overall. Just outside of the seven in the race are Jennifer Lawrence in the Apple TV+ drama Causeway and Ana De Armas as Marilyn Monroe in the controversial Netflix film Blonde.
BEST ACTOR
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Click to get expanded view.The race for frontrunner is tight between Brendan Fraser for The Whale and Colin Farrell for The Banshees of Inisherin. Six members of the team think Fraser is ahead, while four are putting their support behind Farrell. All of our members agree that Austin Butler will make the Best Actor lineup for playing The King himself in Elvis. Bill Nighy also is comfortably predicted by most for Living, with only Eurocheese placing him outside of the top 5.
It’s a real race for the fifth slot in Best Actor. Both Paul Mescal (Aftersun) and Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) are tied for fifth place. Will the Oscars embrace a small indie hit, or give Cruise his fourth nomination for the biggest movie of the year? Some writers have also thrown out Hugh Jackman (The Son) and Diego Calva (Babylon) as potential nominees. Both Gabriel LaBelle (The Fabelmans) and Jeremy Pope (The Inspection) are waiting in the wings.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
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Click to get expanded view.The Supporting Actress race has yet to firm up. Kerry Condon (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Jessie Buckley (Women Talking) seem to be the strongest bets, with both competing for the win. Condon has six writers predicting her for the win, while Buckley has the remaining four votes. Perhaps this is because Buckley has internal competition, with Claire Foy also being widely predicted to earn a nomination for Women Talking as well. It remains to be seen how The Whale will play, but if it does well it seems like Hong Chau will earn her first Oscar nomination.
So who will get that last Supporting Actress slot? Right now, Nina Hoss (Tár) has the most support from the writers. However, she should watch out for a pair of Everything Everywhere All At Once women, Jamie Lee Curtis and Stephanie Hsu. If Triangle of Sadness performs better than expected, breakout star Dolly De Leon could also find herself nominated here. Carey Mulligan (She Said), Janelle Monae (Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery) and Angela Bassett (Black Panther: Wakanda Forever) are also very much in the race for their recently released films.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
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Click to get expanded view.Best Supporting Actress isn’t the only category that could have two sets of multiple nominees from the same movie. Both The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans could accomplish the same feat. For The Banshees of Inisherin, Brendan Gleeson is the clear frontrunner for his arguable co-lead performance in the awards frontrunner. Meanwhile, Barry Keoghan gives a heartfelt and prickly smaller performance and is just outside of the top 5 of all writers. Meanwhile, both Paul Dano and Judd Hirsch are neck and neck in fourth and fifth place. Dano has much more screen time than Hirsch, but Hirsch has a one-scene-wonder bombastic performance that people will remember. Will these four performances take up four of the five possible slots?
It seems hard to fathom since both Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) and Ben Whishaw (Women Talking) are unanimously predicted to earn nominations. Both have scene stealing roles and are the lone supporting actor performances in their high profile Oscar movies. If we only stick to those six actors, that would mean 100% of the nominees would come from Best Picture nominees, presumably. Usumablally at least one or two of the supporting slots go to a movie outside of the Best Picture race. Who would that be this year? Brian Tyree Henry has won raves for his soulful performance in Causeway on Apple TV+. Recent winner Anthony Hopkins could contend this year for his performance in Armageddon Time. The only awards traction for Netflix’s The Good Nurse comes from Eddie Redmayne’s creepy portrayal of a murderous nurse. If these movies make it into Best Picture, some are predicting coattail nominations for Brad Pitt (Babylon), Michael Ward (Empire of Light) or Woody Harrelson (Triangle of Sadness).
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
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Click to get expanded view.Of the two writing categories, Best Original Screenplay has more major contenders than Adapted. This will make it a really tight race. Though The Banshees of Inisherin leads predictions from Film Experience writers, both Everything Everywhere All At Once and The Fabelmans are predicted to be nominated by all writers and even a couple think they could win. All three are in the hunt for Best Picture, so this category could be an essential predictor for who will take home the big prize. Beyond the three frontrunners, the team feels confident that Triangle of Sadness will make the lineup. After that, Todd Field’s Tár rounds out the predicted five, with all writers putting it within the top 7. With such a strong 5, who could be a potential challenger?
If Babylon is a big Oscar player, it could show up in Original Screenplay as a coattail nomination. However, Park Chan-Wook’s Decision to Leave could eke out a nomination if it finds enough fans in the writers branch. Bardo, Aftersun, Armageddon Time and Cha Cha Real Smooth also all hope they can ride wells of passion to contend in this category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
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Click to get expanded view.All Film Experience writers are in agreement - Women Talking is the frontrunner in Best Adapted Screenplay. Every single person has it ranked number one in their predictions. From there, the race becomes a bit more unpredictable. Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery and The Whale both have consistent, but not unanimous, support. Filling out the category, She Said and Living were cited the most by writers, but they are far from safe. In particular, She Said’s poor box office performance could mean waning support as time goes on.
So who could bump them out of the category? Two very different Netflix films are hoping to contend - Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Noah Baumbach’s White Noise. Both are Oscar mainstays, but it remains to be seen whether they will go with the well-reviewed stop motion feature or the more divisive Baumbach dramedy. Other cited contenders include the cannibal romance Bones and All, Florian Zeller’s drama The Son, the war remake All Quiet on the Western Front and box office juggernaut Top Gun: Maverick.
Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments.