Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Matt St. Clair, Christopher James, Lynn Lee and Josh Bierman discussing the screenplays.
MATT ST. CLAIR: Hello all. So, in Best Adapted Screenplay, I think that it remains Jane Campion's to lose but Maggie Gyllenhaal could be The Lost Daughter's sole win here instead, given the clear passion it has. What do you guys think?
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: Thanks for kicking us off, Matt! As in Best Picture, The Power of the Dog is the one to beat. I still think it will ultimately be the big winner of the night, but it is vulnerable...
That said, I don't think The Lost Daughter is its biggest competition. Of the five nominees, it is the only one that is not a Best Picture nominee. While non-Best Picture nominees have surprised in the past here, I'm not convinced The Lost Daughter will be able to do it. Instead, The Power of the Dog should watch out for Drive My Car and CODA.
The four nominations for Drive My Car show an incredible amount of support for the film. Getting this much traction (and over $2 million at the domestic box office) while being a 3 hour Japanese language film centered around a performance of Uncle Vanya is no easy feat. There's a tremendous amount of love for the film, and this could be the place to show it. Some have suggested that after its big win at SAG, CODA could be our Oscar dark horse. In order for me to be convinced that it could take Best Picture, it would have to win here. Right now, I think all the CODA love will only propel Troy Kotsur to the win in Supporting Actor.
Lynn, which movie do you think is the biggest competition in Adapted Screenplay for The Power of the Dog?
LYNN LEE: The Power of the Dog is the frontrunner but it's a much tighter race than it may seem at first glance. I agree that Drive My Car is the dark horse, especially with the whole Academy body voting - not just the screenwriters - and the growing strength of the international (i.e., non-U.S. person) contingent. It definitely overperformed in the nominations and while I don't think it will win Picture or Director, it could steal a victory here if voters want to reward it with more than just international feature.
I have a hard time seeing CODA winning, but that might just be my own bias because I find its writing to be its weakest aspect. On the other hand, there's a fair argument to be made that The Power of the Dog, Drive My Car, and The Lost Daughter could split the, let's call it the artsy-cerebral vote, giving the advantage to what is clearly the populist choice. Oh dear, that makes me sound like a snob. To be clear, I'm not saying artsy or cerebral is always superior to populist! Though in this case, it is.
Josh, where do you land in this race? And are we all underestimating Dune?
JOSH BIERMAN: I'm a big Dune cheerleader. If I was an Academy voter it would be #1 on my Best Picture ballot. I think it will do very well in the tech categories and walk away with the most prizes of the night. But Best Adapted Screenplay will not be one of them. Shocking considering what a massive undertaking the project was and even more shocking because it was pulled off so successfully. I didn't have familiarity with the original film version or the book, but I thought they did a remarkable job of taking something overwhelming and making it digestable. However, I think most voters will still look at it as an enormous technical feat and will seek to reward another contender knowing Dune will do well in other categories. On the flip side maybe this is where voters can honor Villeneuve who was egregiously snubbed. (That would help my theory of Dune achieving success akin to The Godfather at this year's Oscars and in two years, but that goes beyond this category and I won't bore you.)
I think voters really want to make sure Campion will walk away with at least one prize resulting in her likely winning here and in Director. Is anyone more optimistic about Dune's chances here? Or should they just announce Campion's win on The Academy's Twitter already?
MATT: Campion probably wins here. And if she does then The Power of the Dog will definitely claim Best Picture because the Screenplay Oscars are always either a consolation prize for not winning Best Picture or an indication of a Best Picture win. Especially in the era of the expanded Best Picture lineup. But if Campion doesn't win here, then maybe BAFTA winner CODA prevails.
I'm also curious about Original Screenplay. It's going to come down to either Belfast or Licorice Pizza. On one hand, Paul Thomas Anderson has a 0-11 Oscar record. On the other, Kenneth Branagh is in a film with broader support and has a 0-8 record. Yet, if Branagh couldn't win at BAFTA of all places, does PTA take home a long elusive trophy? Or can we go crazy and toy with an upset victory for the writers of The Worst Person in the World?
LYNN LEE: If I were the betting type, I would put a little bit of money on Worst Person in the World. After all, isn't that the kind of upset most likely to happen in original screenplay? Or maybe I'm just indulging in wishful thinking because I want that film to win. The script is such a delightful surprise - I started out thinking I knew more or less where it was going, but then it swerves, and ends up plumbing emotional depths that hit me hard. And how great would it be to have a double victory by non-English language films in the screenplay categories -- has that happened before?
I could see Licorice Pizza being the "cool" film that wins, which I have mixed feelings about. I enjoyed the film and didn't mind its discursiveness, but the reason it worked as well as it did was the acting and production design, not the writing. In particular, I give Alana Haim about 95% of the credit for making a character who's fairly unbelievable on paper as compelling as she is on screen. I also really could have done without the cringey Japanese restaurant owner played by John Michael Higgins, which, however you feel we were supposed to take him, embodies the downside of the screenplay's bagginess. Take him out and what do you lose? Nothing. So why is he still in there?
MATT ST. CLAIR: Yeah. I'll be honest, as a PTA fan, I don't think Licorice Pizza is one of his strongest screenplays. While it might be his most accessible movie, it was quite meandering with Alana Haim's performance indeed being its saving grace. Of course, the one thing giving me pause about The Worst Person in the World pulling off a surprise victory is that it's the only film in this category that isn't up for Best Picture. But the writers got in over Aaron Sorkin for Being the Ricardos who they could've easily name-checked. So, the movie clearly has fans.
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: I keep inching closer and closer to predicting The Worst Person in the World. To answer your question, Lynn, there has never been a year where international features won both writing categories. In fact, no international feature has won Adapted Screenplay, while six have won Original Screenplay. There is a chance The Worst Person in the World follows the trajectory of Talk to Her, winning Screenplay without a Best Picture nomination. However, that movie was only up against one Best Picture nominee (Gangs of New York).
Licorice Pizza is a very vulnerable frontrunner in this category and it grows more vulnerable by the day. As a Paul Thomas Anderson fan, I enjoyed Licorice Pizza. Yet, it was definitely one of his most uneven entries, with moments that ranged from glorious (Harriet Samson Harris) to unwatchable (the John Michael Higgins moments you mentioned). If it were to win, it would likely be more for Paul Thomas Anderson's legacy than for the film itself. The fact that it didn't show up in acting or below the line categories makes me think its support is concentrated to PTA superfans.
In fact, I think the race has the potential for other upsets. Belfast's win at the Critics Choice feels more like prognosticating rather than a vote of actual support. Still, there are clearly fans for the film and this could be the place where it gets its consolation win.
Don't Look Up and King Richard also have their fervent camps. I feel pretty confident that King Richard won't win here, as fans of the movie are rallying around Will Smith for the movie's big win (and possibly Film Editing and Aunjanue Ellis as a dark horse). Don't Look Up, on the other hand, doesn't have another natural place to win and the people who love it really love it. Could the field split enough that this surprises? I hope not (and am not predicting it). All of this is to say, we have a real race on our hands.
MATT ST. CLAIR: If anything beats Licorice Pizza, it's either Belfast as the spoiler or The Worst Person in the World as the hopeful dark horse. So, what do we all have as our final predictions? For me, I'm going to settle on Belfast in Original with Licorice Pizza as the potential upset winner and The Power of the Dog for Adapted but with CODA as the spoiler.
CHRISTOPHER JAMES: I'm going to go a little risky. For Adapted Screenplay, I think CODA will end up winning. The BAFTA win and groundswell for the movie at this exact time thinks it can overtake The Power of the Dog here (but not in Picture).
In Original Screenplay, I also think that the Licorice Pizza/PTA backlash is firing up at the exact wrong time. Voters love Belfast, and this feels like the safest place for it to have one win. Plus, it seems like people who might be swayed to vote for The Worst Person in the World come more from the Licorice Pizza camp than the Belfast camp.
JOSH BIERMAN: Now y’all have me doubting myself. I’m still going to stick to The Power of the Dog in adapted screenplay. Original screenplay seems more up in the air now, but I’m going to stick to Licorice Pizza. For spoilers, I’m going with The Lost Daughter and Belfast.
LYNN LEE: Gah, this is really tough, especially since it feels like a "spread the wealth" Oscars year, which could of course cut in so many different ways. It means original screenplay could go to either Licorice Pizza or Belfast, especially since I don't think they're winning anywhere else. But for the same reason that I don't think Belfast is winning Best Picture, I don't think it takes screenplay, either. It's a nice, well-made, moderately affecting little film that doesn't really dig deep or stand out from the pack, in either a good or a bad way. Licorice Pizza does, for better or worse. As for Don't Look Up, no one seems to be talking about it anymore - though obviously one should never equate what the Twitterati are saying (or not saying) about a movie with how it's landing offline.
I'll split my predictions between wanting to go big and not wanting to go home. Drive My Car for adapted (though literally any of the other nominees could win and not surprise me) and Licorice Pizza for original (with The Worst Person in the World as the potential, and very welcome, upset).
In my heart, though, I'll be hoping for that history-making double international feature win!
FINAL PREDICTIONS...
- CODA: Christopher
- Drive My Car: Lynn
- The Power of the Dog: Matt, Josh
- Belfast: Matt, Christopher
- Licorice Pizza: Lynn, Josh
What about you, dear reader? What are YOU rooting for and what do you think will win?
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