by Nathaniel R
Image © A24
While we can be reasonably certain who the major players are in Best Actress and Best Actor (both charts updated), can we really know about Supporting Actress yet? With Michelle Williams having vacated the Supporting Actress race it feels truly like anyone's Oscar to grab this coming March. But do we really even know who is competing? No, we do not! The shortlist also feels wide open with no locks as of yet. So here is where we are right now and where we might be heading...
The first possibilities to emerge in the spring were Stephanie Hsu and Jamie Lee Curtis for Everything Everywhere All At Once. That eccentric and extremely enjoyable film has built a lot of steam ever since and is now a credible threat for Picture/Screenplay/Editing nominations, though other category dreams feel possible but more difficult. Obviously Michelle Yeoh is a threat in Best Actress (IF Oscar voters choose to embrace this as a huge moment in her long international career, despite their aversion to genre acting) but will she have enough juice to drag in a co-star or two with her? Hsu has a large role (which always helps) and many media types are pushing for her while Curtis has the advantage of a very long and underrewarded career if the campaign is able to capitalize on it. While that whole cast is uniformly terrific, Oscar's acting branch is still extremely conservative in terms of what they view as "Great Acting" (aka biopics, heavy dramas, crying, screaming), and only very rarely embrace genre performances. You can just about count on one hand the amount of performers that have been nominated for sci-fi, action, or superheroics (all three of which apply to the movie). Comedy is also a tricky sell for voters but there are far more examples of comedic performances making it in then genre performances. In short we are hopeful and fearful for this true wild card.
No films from the summer brought forth real contenders for this category which brings us to the fall festivals.
Women Talking image © United Arts Releasing
Film critics have been helpful in terms of agreeing on the standouts of some ensemble films (most of which haven't yet opened in movie theaters) like Claire Foy and Jessie Buckley for Women Talking, and Janelle Monae and Kate Hudson for Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery. But it's worth noting that who pundits, media, and critics push is not always what the Academy wants (consider the shift from internet-appointed Caitronia Balfe early last Oscar season to Academy favourite Judi Dench when it came time for voting on Belfast)
Critics are not as unified around other films with more than one supporting actress. While Brendan Fraser feels nearly-lockish for a Best Actor nomination for The Whale will the Academy go for either or his supporting players? The film costars the always superb Hong Chau (who Oscar passed on despite precursor love for Downsizing five years ago) and Sadie Sink who has a more divisive role but is riding a "new star!" wave of fame at the moment. Another "but who?" question pops up in terms of The Woman King. Thuso Mbedu, Lashana Lynch, Sheila Atim have all received praise but will a consensus emerge among industry voters or will they just consider it Viola's show? What's more Babylon and Black Panther Wakanda Forever haven't yet screened so who knows how their casts will play to critics, audiences, and awards types.
In short, it feels like anything could happen but here is the guesswork for September 24th...