We're polling the Team Film Experience on where the Oscar race stands. This week Best Picture, Director, and the Acting and Writing categories.
It has been over a month since we’ve checked in on the directing, acting and writing categories. Since then, Avatar has soared at the box office, Babylon has flopped and both the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards have announced their nominations. Some categories look completely different than they did at the end of November. Others, funny enough, remain the same. One category has a contender who is unanimously on the top of everyone’s predictions… and it’s not the one you think.
Check out our predictions after the jump…
The Team
Before we jump into the other categories, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.
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A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer
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B.C. = Baby Clyde
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B.M. = Ben Miller
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C.J. = Chris James
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C.A. = Cláudio Alves
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E.B. = Eric Blume
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E.C. = Eurocheese
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E.G. = Elisa Giudici
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G.D. = Glenn Dunks
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N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)
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N.T. = Nick Taylor
For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.
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BEST PICTURE
Everything Everywhere All At Once remains at the top of the pack, but its competition remains heated. In round 3, it had five #1 votes and this round it went down to three writers putting it atop their predictions. Meanwhile, Top Gun: Maverick moved up two spots in the power rankings and actually has more #1 votes than Everything Everywhere All At Once. Could this be the year of the blockbuster? Even though they dropped down one spot, The Banshees of Inisherin and The Fabelmans both have one writer predicting them to win. Even with a stellar box office run the past three weeks, Avatar: The Way of Water held steady in the fifth position with one writer predicting it for the win.
Elsewhere in the top 10, there is very little movement. Both Elvis and Tár held steady, while Women Talking dipped a bit. After dominating the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists, All Quiet on the Western Front moved up one spot and cemented itself as a major Best Picture player for the nomination. Meanwhile, the poor box office of Babylon has caused it to drop a spot and tie with Glass Onion for the 10th spot. Even though Glass Onion was widely watched on Netflix, it’s proved to be a slightly more divisive than initially expected. Which one will triumph, or will something else sneak into 10th place?
There’s still support out there for Triangle of Sadness, RRR and The Woman King, all lurking just outside the top 10. Some writers also feel like She Said, Aftersun and Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio are in the conversation as well.
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BEST DIRECTOR
Even though The Fabelmans continues to fall from the top in Best Picture, Steven Spielberg remains the frontrunner in Best Director. Perhaps this is because no other contender appeared on every writer’s top seven. Three other directors from the first round remained in the top five this go around. The Daniels (Everything Everywhere All At Once), Martin McDonagh (The Banshees of Inisherin) and Todd Field (Tár) all remain in the predicted lineup, with both the Daniels and McDonagh sitting atop one writer’s prediction. The biggest shakeup comes from previous winner James Cameron for the blockbuster sequel, Avatar: The Way of Water. He jumped up from ninth place to tying for third place, the biggest jump in the category.
Yet, no one should feel safe. More directors showed up on writers’ predictions. Both Baz Luhrmann (Elvis) and S.S. Rajamouli (RRR) are now in the running and tied for seventh place with Ruben Ostlünd for Triangle of Sadness. The one director to fall out of the predicted five was Sarah Polley (Women Talking), though she is still very much in the hunt. The director branch tends to appreciate international film, which is why Edward Berger (All Quiet on the Western Front), Alejandro González Iñárritu (Bardo) and Park Chan-Wook (Decision to Leave) all received some support from pundits.
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BEST ACTRESS
Very little has changed within the Best Actress race since last we checked in on it. Cate Blanchett is still in the lead for Tár, though Michelle Yeoh is stiff competition for Everything Everywhere All At Once. The only shakeup was Danielle Deadwyler (Till) swapping places with Michelle Williams, who has been getting more critiques for her performance in The Fabelmans. Margot Robbie is hanging on to the fifth slot in the category, though Viola Davis is right on her heels for The Woman King. The only other women in conversation continue to be Olivia Colman (Empire of Light), Ana de Armas (Blonde) and Jennifer Lawrence (Causeway), which is exactly how it was in November.
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BEST ACTOR
We have a new frontrunner. Brendan Fraser dropped from first place to second place after The Whale received mixed notices. Colin Farrell now is at the top of the heat for The Banshees of Inisherin. It’s not just the Farrell vs Fraser category anymore though. Austin Butler now has some writers predicting him to win for playing Elvis. He’ll only become more competitive if he ends up taking the Golden Globes this week. Bill Nighy (Living) and Paul Mescal (Aftersun) both round out the category predictions, though Tom Cruise (Top Gun: Maverick) is still lurking close in sixth place. All in all, it appears to be a six person race, with no other men placing fifth or higher on any writer’s ballots. Tom Hanks entered the conversation for A Man Called Otto, but is still far from cracking the lineup.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
In a category that is so up in the air, it’s strange that here is the only place where the team came to a consensus. Every writer put Kerry Condon in first place on their predictions for The Banshees of Inisherin. She’s far from a lock to win this category. However, being the standout, lone female in a male-dominated Best Picture contender usually results in a Supporting Actress nomination. No other actress was even mentioned on all writers’ top seven rankings. The only other actress to stay in the predicted five from November was Jessie Buckley for Women Talking. She stays in second place, but still shouldn’t consider herself safe.
Three actresses made significant jumps in the charts. Jamie Lee Curtis was on the outside of the category in Everything Everywhere All At Once, but now is firmly in third place. Tied for fourth place are two very different performances that were both further down the chart in previous predictions. Both Dolly De Leon (Triangle of Sadness) and Janelle Monae (Glass Onion) tied for fourth place and could be celebrating their first Oscar nominations. Other women who made major gains over the past month include fellow Everything Everywhere All At Once star Stephanie Hsu and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever’s Angela Bassett, who would be the first actor nominated for a Marvel performance. Claire Foy (Women Talking), Hong Chau (The Whale) and Nina Hoss (Tár) are still very much in the Oscar hunt, but they fell out of the predicted five after key misses from the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards.
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BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
There has been plenty of movement in the Supporting Actor race since November. Brendan Gleeson is still a major contender for his performance in The Banshees of Inisherin, but he relinquished his frontrunner status to Ke Huy Quan for Everything Everywhere All At Once. The only other actor to be unanimously predicted for a nomination is Gleeson’s co-star, Barry Keoghan.
Last round of predictions, both of The Fabelmans actors tied. Now, Paul Dano has pulled ahead of Judd Hirsch and only Dano is in the predicted lineup. Rounding out the category is Brian Tyree Henry for Causeway. Though the movie is a much smaller contender, he has been showing up in a lot of critic based precursors and this increased visibility could earn him his first Oscar nomination. There are plenty of other contenders still in the hunt. Ben Whishaw took a big hit on the charts for his role in Women Talking. However, Eddie Redmayne (The Good Nurse) and Brad Pitt (Babylon) continue to gain support from a few writers. New to the chart is Mark Rylance for his bold, creepy role in Bones and All. Could the previous Oscar winner be the ultimate surprise on Oscar morning?
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BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
Very little has changed in the Original Screenplay race, as the top five have stayed the same. Every single one of the five movies appeared somewhere on all writers’ predictions. For the win, it seems to be a race between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once.
When looking at potential spoilers, Aftersun seems to be cropping up as the main contender to crash the category. International Features like Decision to Leave and Bardo also have some support. Meanwhile, support for Babylon has waned as it sees its Oscar hopes dry up in other categories. Armageddon Time, Nope and Elvis each received a sole longshot mention.
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BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
When we last polled writers, Women Talking was a clear frontrunner for the Adapted Screenplay prize. Though it is still at the top of the pile, it appears we have a race with Glass Onion. Both of those films are the only perceived locks in the category, which could go a variety of different ways. In third place is The Whale, but the play adaptation is far from secured. Living further secured its position in the category, but it still feels very vulnerable in the category. The biggest change to the category is All Quiet on the Western Front, which rocketed up the predictions after the film’s strong showing on the Oscar shortlists and BAFTA longlists.
It’s not the only film that is making major gains in this category. Top Gun: Maverick jumped up two places and is within striking distance of a nomination. This happens while movies like She Said, White Noise, Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio and Bones and All seem to be dropping from writers’ predicted lineup.
Where do you think the race stands as of now? Let us know in the comments below.
Previous Weeks:
Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot