The Film Experience

Team Experience is teaming up to discuss each Oscar category. Here's Mark Brinkerhoff and Elisa Giudici...

TÁR in the act of creation

MARK: Hello, hello! Get a look at the Best Original Screenplay nominees this year—all five are also Best Picture Oscar nominees. Now of course this isn’t unprecedented, namely in the modern era of (up to) 10 Best Picture nominees, but it *is* unusual. (2020 was the other year this complete overlap occurred.) Typically we’ll get at least one inspired, left-field choice in Best Original Screenplay (think Bridesmaids, The Lobster, Nightcrawler, etc.). Not this year, unfortunately.

So where does this leave us? With a pretty sterling lineup of nominees overall! Among the five—The Banshees of Inisherin, Everything Everywhere All at Once, The Fabelmans, Tár, Triangle of Sadness—which strike you as the real deal this year?

ELISA: It is definitely an interesting quintet, with a distinct tempo and elements of originality. I’ll borrow a bit from Adapted Screenplay to explain myself. In many cases, this category is considered the "alternative Best Picture Award." In other words, when there is a very good movie, a title that will probably last in the collective cinematic memory but it is a little too unconventional, a little too radical, and not that reassuring for a certain type of voter or audience member, then that particular title has a better chance of winning in this category instead.

EVERYTHING EVERYWHERE ALL AT ONCE loves a circle... or bagel

This quintet is the sum up of that kind of unconventional, fresh, innovative, artsy possible-future-classic movies of the year, at least in the United States. You can get nominated for how well you follow a well-known way to write and build a story in Adapted Screenplay, but here you need a sense of novelty, personality, or out-of-the-box writing. Consequently, there is no Top Gun: Maverick style nominee that creates a conventional blockbuster movies that works incredibly well but isn't innovative. The word "original" is meant literally in the rules but spiritually it doesn't refer solely to the source of the story. At least this is how I interpret the choices made regularly in this category.

This long premise to say that "the real deal" here can easily be the most unconventional script. The general consensus has crowned Everything Everywhere All at Once as the winner in Best Picture: it is an innovative movie for sure, but I don’t think it will win here, too. The better alternative would be The Banshees of Inisherin, the real contender for the crown of the best movie of the year. In this category, Martin McDonagh is a heavyweight and a tremendous screenwriter at the same time.

My gut says a lot of voters will choose to give a nod to something even more "radical" in their perception, something no one sees as a winner in major categories: Tár by Todd Field. Despite Cate Blanchett's great performance, she could lose to Michelle Yeoh as Best Actress. Some parts of the Academy may vote Tár here, hoping to give the movie a well-deserved award.

What is your perception?

BANSHEES OF INISHERIN composes an original tune

MARK: TÁR of course would be an exemplary Best Original Screenplay winner. It’s a titanic, tightrope act of screenwriting, with reams of dialogue and exposition that in lesser hands would not be nearly as gripping. Particularly if Blanchett ultimately does lose Best Actress (and, gosh, it seems close), screenplay is a natural place to reward the film—and its filmmaker, who still has yet to win an Oscar *and* whose sparse output may prompt those in the Academy to award a generational talent while that they can.

With that said, does The Banshees of Inisherin not seem like the singular work of *another* oft-nominated, under-rewarded writer-director that is tailor-made for an original screenplay win? Granted, McDonagh already has won an Oscar, while Field has not, but it was for Best Live Action Short Film back in 2006. And who really remembers that? Banshees is also McDonagh’s third original screenplay nomination and may be the clearest place to reward his film, an across-the-board hit with the Academy. I’d be inclined to lean toward it, except...

Is Everything Everywhere All at Once poised to just sweep? I mean, certainly it can't win everything (everywhere), but the fact that it has cleaned up with the guilds so far—we’ll see if that remains the case at the Writers Guild awards—is something I would not have predicted even a few weeks ago. Between it and TÁR, also nominated by the WGA, I think we may have our original screenplay winner. Both are definitionally unconventional, as is Banshees, which is exciting.

ELISA: I agree with you. Everything Everywhere All at Once is a strong contender in almost every category it shows up in, the title to beat in a lot of them, but not in this one. It's safe to rule out The Fabelmans and Triangle of Sadness. According to bookmakers, McDonagh and the Daniels are at odds, but Field could be the dark horse.

As you remember, we have here two directors who people at the Academy might want to reward and even make up for the snubs of the past. In addition, we have a young directorial duo who will probably end the night with a lot of statuettes. Under other circumstances, Everything Everywhere All at Once would be a sure winner here as one of the most innovative films of the year. In 2023, I expect a substantial portion of the Academy to use its vote to highlight another film. If the consensus is strong enough on one and the other helps to steal some votes from the frontrunner, anything can happen.

I would love to be surprised by a TÁR victory here: it’s not that probable, but it is still an unlocked category with only two contenders you can safely rule out. Only a handful of days separate us from Oscar night! So fun.

In the end, who do you think will win? I want to take a risk and say Todd Field. I would love an Oscar night full of surprises and unexpected but deserved victories!

MARK: You and me both!

Well, my heart says TÁR (sublime), and my head says Banshees or Everything Everywhere. You’re absolutely right that the Daniels can—and will—be amply rewarded elsewhere so no need to reward them here. Field and McDonagh are in the hunt for their first (feature) Oscar, and either one would be a worthy winner in this category.

Lean: TÁR

With Oscar voting well underway, did we end up with the consensus pick? We shall see!