Is it us or are the four of the acting races murkier than they usually would be during the week of Oscar voting? We chalk this up to a bit less precursor uniformity between Critics Choice, Globes, SAG nods, and the regional critical consensus. On the other hand that regional critical consensus has been very pronounced with a clear lineup of winners that go like so: Parasite/Bong Joon Ho / Nyongo / Driver / Dern / Pitt. But what we're dealing with right now is the nomination game which is far more complex than "who wins".
BEST ACTRESS - Six women are still very much in the mix and it's quite difficult to guess who will be left out. Passion suggests that Cynthia Erivo or Charlize Theron would be in danger of the "snub" but on the other hand you're not often the snubbee if you're the one doing the biographical role... especially if there's mimicry. For now we've opted to have Saoirse Ronan be the odd woman out but that doesn't feel right either given the very current groundswell of love for that picture. At any rate we think it's between the six listed on the chart with Alfre Woodard (Clemency) and Awkwafina (The Farewell) staring to look like impossible dreams in this final decision week...
BEST ACTOR - This race is even more confusing with TEN men still very much in the conversation. A lot will come down to passion votes which means that Bale (Ford V Ferrari), Pryce (The Two Popes) and Murphy (Dolemite is My Name) for example aren't exactly out of the mix even if they haven't performed spectacularly well in precursors. It will also come down to the films themselves (as acting races often do -- Best Picture heat counts for so much, whether or not it should in the acting races) which means that DiCaprio and DeNiro, for example, can't be discounted regardless of the fact that they don't feel like #1 choices for a lot of people because the films are so strong going into balloting.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS - Here's the one race that feels the most "set"... though even here there is room for mystery. Is Florence Pugh really going to get nominated or is she more of an internet enthusiasm? Will Scarlett double dip? In the latest update we're saying yes on both counts because there just hasn't been that much volatility in this category. Or what volatility there has been feels anomalous (Annette Bening and Kathy Bates Globe nominations dont seem to have revved up those campaigns).
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR - Another category that feels settled but we suspect isn't. Is Hanks really safe? He's been here this close before and suddenly not shown up. Is Hopkins safe? He did well in the precursors but without Pryce (who has a super competitive field to fight through) it would seem like an odd nomination. So we've opted to split the difference and predict a huge get for NEON with a nomination for Sang Kang Ho from Parasite.