by Nathaniel R
Former Oscar winners: Denzel, Nicolas (and Javier Bardem) all rising on the chart
Oscar chart update time. The SAG nominations threw a wrench into Best Actor predictions with the inclusion of the polarizing performance (or rather polarizing casting) of Javier Bardem as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos. But is he really a threat to the nomination? Probably, yes, as Oscar's acting branch loves almost nothing more than celebrities playing other celebrities. Not all biopics are about celebrities or star bonafide celebrities so this is a special awards-magnetized division of the overall 'genre' if you will. We think he might be nominated -- especially if Nicole Kidman becomes the clear favourite in Best Actress -- but he's hardly locked up. Especially because it seems extra foolish to assume his nomination chances are as sturdy as the other four SAG nominees (Will Smith, Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Denzel Washington) who have all scored at all three important precursors (which Bardem has not).
Our conclusion. The fifth spot is a true free-for-all...
Before the SAG nominations we had been predicting Leonardo DiCaprio to score for his comic star turn as an exasperated spiralling astronomer in Don't Look Up but the SAG response to that movie (Outstanding Cast nod and nothing else) suggests to us that the industry isn't really differentiating the performances in that ensemble. Though the Globes are often dissed for their star-f***ing, SAG is also very impressed with "celebrity" so it stood to reason that Leo had a great shot there. And yet he didn't appear. Neither did Peter Dinklage whose campaign for Cyrano seems to have been somewhat derailed by MGM/UA's strange reluctance to release that damn movie. The movie plays like a potential crowd-pleaser (it's very charming) but it's been kept away from the crowds and therefore they can't be pleased! It's currently scheduled to be released on February 25th. We weren't born yesterday and whenever an Oscar hopeful plans a release well after Oscar nominations, the confidence isnt there. But if not Leo and Peter, then who? This leads us to believe that "passion picks" actually have a great window to climb through.
So suddenly we're wondering if the fifth slot is going to be Nicolas Cage in Pig so that's what we're predicting for the moment. He's the only one who has made a dent in Benedict Cumberbatch's critics win haul and the people who love that performance really love it. Plus we know of at least one Academy member who is considering voting for him...
I encourage viewers to watch Nic Cage in PIG ❣️
— Sharon Stone (@sharonstone) January 8, 2022
Outside of Nicolas Cage, the other passion pick might well be Hidetoshi Nishijima in Drive My Car but, regardless of how great Nishijima is in that movie (yes he's marvelous) that feels awfully far-fetched given Oscar history, even accounting for that movie's swift rise as "The International Feature to beat!"
Are we overthinking all of this? Of course we are; That's the fun of punditry! Your thoughts?