Team Experience Predictions Chart - FINAL PREDICTIONS

Friday, March 10, 2023 at 8:27PM
Christopher James in Oscars (22), TTeam Experience Prediction Charts, Team Experience

Final Oscar predictions from the team...

The time has come! The Film Experience writers have made their predictions in all 23 Oscar categories. While many categories are incredibly contentious, one in particular seems pretty easy.

BEST ACTRESS

After her recent SAG win, Michelle Yeoh (Everything Everywhere All At Once) pulled ahead of Cate Blanchett (Tár) in the eyes of the Film Experience team. Seven writers are predicting Yeoh, while the remaining three are with Blanchett. If Yeoh pulls ahead, she would become the second woman of color to win Best Actress after Halle Berry.

Following this actress showdown, surprise nominee Andrea Riseborough is in third place for To Leslie. Rounding out the category are Michelle Williams (The Fabelmans) and Ana de Armas (Blonde). 

 

BEST ACTOR

According to the team, three actors are still in the hunt for the Best Actor prize. BAFTA and Golden Globes winner Austin Butler (Elvis) and Critics Choice and SAG winner Brendan Fraser (The Whale) both have the support of four writers each. When it comes to the rankings, it looks like Butler has a slight edge among the writers. However, it’s going to be a nailbiter up until the envelope is opened. Golden Globes winner Colin Farrell (The Banshees of Inisherin) also remains in the conversation, with Eric and Nick predicting him to win. From there, Paul Mescal (Aftersun) is a clear fourth place, while Bill Nighy (Living) is bringing up the rear.

 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Another acting category that is fiercely competitive. Angela Bassett still has the support of the Film Experience team for her work in Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, after winning the Golden Globes and Critics Choice Awards. Four writers think that BAFTA winner Kerry Condon could have a shot at defeating Bassett for The Banshees of Inisherin. Meanwhile, SAG winner Jamie Lee Curtis (Everything Everywhere All At Once) has the support of one writer, putting her ahead of her co-star Stephanie Hsu. In fifth place in the category is Hong Chau for The Whale.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

While the other three acting categories are fiercely competitive, Best Supporting Actor is easy. All Film Experience writers agree, Ke Huy Quan (Everything Everywhere All At Once) will take home the Oscar. From there, The Banshees of Inisherin men - Barry Keoghan and Brendan Gleeson - follow in second and third place, respectively. Meanwhile, Judd Hirsch (The Fabelmans) and Brian Tyree Henry (Causeway) are on the outside of the category.

 

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

This category was often neck and neck between The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once. However, as EEAAO surged ahead in precursors, it overtook Banshees to become a clear frontrunner, with seven of ten writers predicting it. This category is stacked with other Best Picture nominees that are sadly far behind this race. Tár, The Fabelmans and Triangle of Sadness all fill out the remainder of the slots.

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Sarah Polley’s Women Talking leads the pack with seven of ten writers predicting it to win. However, the film is vulnerable in this category. A fellow Best Picture nominee, All Quiet on the Western Front, is looking to pull ahead following its hefty nomination toll and huge showing at the BAFTAs. It looks to be a race between those two films, with the remaining nominees - Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery, Top Gun: Maverick and Living - standing on the outside.

 

BEST ANIMATED FEATURE

This race has been dominated by Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio, the Netflix adaptation of the classic children’s tale. However, one brave writer, Ben Miller, is going out on a limb in this category, predicting Puss in Boots: The Last Wish after its incredible box office legs. The film does seem to be surging right now, after all it is still in the box office top 10 after 11 weeks. But will that be enough? Marcel the Shell with Shoes hoped to be the critical darling that could contend for the win, but it might have to be content with third place in this category. Disney’s Turning Red and Netflix’s The Sea Beast round out this category.

 

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

It’s anyone’s game for Best Documentary Feature this year. The most popular documentary of the year is arguably Fire of Love, but the branch sometimes is a stickler for documentaries relying on archival footage. This might be why the ripped from the headlines Navalny is in first place among Film Experience writers, with six out of ten votes. However, it’s far from a lock. All the Beauty and the Bloodshed has rave reviews, but that might not be enough to get it across the finish line. Recently released on HBO, All That Breathes has been charming viewers most recently. This might be why one writer, Nick Taylor, predicts it for the win. The only movie that seems out of the race is A House Made of Splinters, a documentary of children held at a foster care facility in Ukraine.

BEST INTERNATIONAL FEATURE

With nine Oscar nominations, including Best Picture, All Quiet on the Western Front has a clear path to victory. Every single writer is predicting it for the win. It’s unlikely any other challenger has enough support to overthrow it. Amazon Prime’s Argentina, 1985 won at the Golden Globes, which could make it a potential challenger. Meanwhile, Ireland’s The Quiet Girl, Belgium’s Close and Poland’s EO all have their passionate supporters. Yet, these groups are small yet vocal, and that likely won’t be enough to stop the giant tank in this category that is All Quiet on the Western Front.

BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY

With shocking nominations in this category, it’s really anyone’s race in Best Cinematography. Right now, All Quiet on the Western Front has steamrolled its way to the front of the category, predicted by seven of ten writers. However, recent ACE winner Elvis has the support of three writers. If the film can win in this category, its cinematographer, Mandy Walker, would become the first woman to win this award. The remaining three nominees - Tár, Empire of Light and Bardo - do not have any writers predicting them to win.

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

Here is another competitive craft category, with four out of five films mentioned as potential winners by Film Experience writers. Elvis is the clear frontrunner, with seven out of ten writers predicting a win. However, there’s a path to victory for three other nominees. Ruth E. Carter previously won this category for Black Panther, so she could just as well prevail for Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Hollywood loves a glitzy, period Hollywood tale, which may endear them to Babylon. If the Best Picture heat is white hot for Everything Everywhere All At Once, then it could even pull a surprise win here. As lovely as the costumes are, Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris looks to bring up the rear in this category.

 

BEST FILM EDITING

Of the craft categories it is nominated for, this seems to be the easiest place for Everything Everywhere All At Once to pick up a win. Its only competition is Top Gun: Maverick, as it’s the big blockbuster here. The three other Best Picture nominees - Elvis, Tár and The Banshees of Inisherin - have less of a shot at winning, though this nomination could bolster their chances in other categories.

BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING

It’s the battle of aging versus fatsuits. Best Picture nominee Elvis has pulled ahead of The Whale in this category, which could be an early barometer for Best Actor. Eight writers are predicting Elvis, while two are predicting The Whale. The rest of the category seems to factor in less, though there’s an outside chance the other Best Picture nominee of the group, All Quiet on the Western Front, could get a ton of momentum going in the craft categories. Superhero films The Batman and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever round out the category.

BEST ORIGINAL SCORE

We’ve got a nailbiter of a category with Original Score. Babylon has picked up a good number of precursors this season, which makes it a strong contender in this category with six writers predicting it for the win. Unfortunately, it is the only film in this category not nominated for Best Picture. The loud score of All Quiet on the Western Front or John Williams’ tender work on The Fabelmans both could end up beating Justin Hurwitz’s work on Babylon, as each has the support of two writers. Despite numerous nominations, both The Banshees of Inisherin and Everything Everywhere All At Once appear to be at the bottom of this category.

BEST ORIGINAL SONG

Thanks to a strong precursor showing, the rousing standout from RRR, “Naatu Naatu” will likely take the Oscar for Best Original Song. Nine out of ten writers are behind RRR for the win. Only Cláudio feels differently, opting for pop diva Rihanna’s work on “Lift Me Up” from Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Fellow popstar Lady Gaga lags behind for her song from Top Gun: Maverick, “Hold My Hand.” Best Picture frontrunner Everything Everywhere All At Once may win many awards this Oscar ceremony, but Original Song doesn’t appear to be one of them. Though she won the Honorary Oscar this year, the writers do not think that Diane Warren will win a competitive Oscar for “Applause” from Tell It Like a Woman.

BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN

Two different versions of showbiz fight for the crown of Best Production Design. Right now, the team projects Elvis for the win, but only narrowly ahead of Babylon, a tale of Hollywood decadence. If voters were looking to stray away from the land of showbiz, Eurocheese is predicting that All Quiet on the Western Front could be the ultimate upset. Though its predecessor won this category back in 2009, Avatar: The Way of Water sits squarely in fourth place, while The Fabelmans finishes the category in fifth place.

BEST SOUND

Top Gun: Maverick looks to be the winner of the Best Sound category, according to seven of The Film Experience writers. However, the blockbuster has to watch out for the sound branch’s two favorite genres - war films and musicals. Two writers are predicting All Quiet on the Western Front for the win, while one is predicting Elvis. While past franchise entries succeeded in winning this prize, both Avatar: The Way of Water and The Batman appear to be on the outs of this category.

BEST VISUAL EFFECTS

There are a few categories that are easy to call this year. However, none are as easy as Best Visual Effects, which all Film Experience writers agree that Avatar: The Way of Water will win in a cakewalk. Best Picture nominees Top Gun: Maverick and All Quiet on the Western Front are next in line, but they are far behind James Cameron’s behemoth. Just like in the Makeup and Hairstyling category, the superhero duo of The Batman and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever take fourth and fifth place, respectively.

 

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

Want to win your Oscar pool? Pay attention to the short film categories.

The most star studded pedigree comes from Apple TV+’s The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse, which was produced by the likes of J.J. Abrams and Woody Harrellson and features the voices of Tom Hollander, Idris Elba and Gabriel Byrne. This puts it out front of this category, but the sincere and schmaltzy tone of the short could lead voters to choose something else from the category. Ice Merchants is a stunning and warm thriller about a father and son living perched on a mountain. Short and memorable, three writers are predicting this film to triumph. If having an eye-catching title helps a film stand out, then My Year of Dicks or An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It might both have a shot. The first is a rotoscoped coming of age tale set in the 90s, while the latter is a claymation fourth-wall breaking comedy. All of the writers agree on one thing, that The Flying Sailor is towards the bottom of the predicted five. The eight minute short is a haunting, yet sparse, watch as a sailor encounters an explosion and is sent hurtling naked through space.

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT SUBJECT

When in doubt, choose “heart-warming” for Documentary Short Subject.

The current frontrunner, Stranger at the Gate, follows an Army veteran with PTSD whose racist beliefs drive him to plot the bombing of a local mosque. However, once he visits the mosque, he grows to love the people inside and becomes a Muslim himself. Two different nature-based documentary shorts each received two votes from writers. Netflix’s The Elephant Whisperers follows a couple in South India who care for orphaned elephants. Meanwhile, Haulout is a more gorgeous yet brutal look at climate change through the eyes of a man who lives in the Russian Arctic who opens his door to hundreds of walruses. Rounding out the pack are The Martha Mitchell Effect, a more straightforward short biopic about the wife of a Nixon insider who spoke out and befell much political scrutiny, and How Do You Measure a Year, which involves a Father interviewing his daughter each year from ages 2 to 18. 

BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM

The age old question with the Live Action Short Film category is “how many dead children are there?”

Luckily, not as many as usual. This is a relatively more upbeat category than normal. Alice Rohrwacher’s delightfully comic tale of Italian orphans, Le Pupile, has the edge in this category, earning first place predictions from eight of ten writers. Produced by Alfonso Cuaron, it boasts a powerful pedigree and is glossy and well done enough to back it up. The remaining two writers went with An Irish Goodbye, a bittersweet comedy about two brothers trying to complete their dead mother’s bucket list. The rest of the category is filled out by some tougher options - The Red Suitcase, about a teen trying to escape the marriage she’s sold into; Night Ride, about a woman intervening in a harassment situation after stealing a bus; and Ivalu, about a girl trying to find her missing sister.

 

What are your predictions for the Oscars? Let us know in the comments below.

Previous Weeks:

Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot

Round 2: Doc, International & Animation

Round 3: Oscar Shortlists

Round 4: Post-Holidays

Round 5: Final Predictions

Prediction Results

 

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).