Team Experience Oscar Prediction Results

How did you do on your predictions? Yesterday we published the final predictions from all Film Experience writers. While many of the expected films (Everything Everywhere All At Once, The Fabelmans, The Banshees of Inisherin) successfully made good on their Oscar promise, even we were stumped on a few nominees. Perhaps we should’ve taken Titanic stars Kate Winslet and Frances Fisher more seriously when they posted about Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. However, we have the results of which writers came out ahead on our friendly competition!

So who won? Check out the score after the jump...

The Team

Before we jump into the results, let's quickly recap which writers are contributing to these predictions.

• A.B. = Abe Fried-Tanzer 

• B.C. = Baby Clyde

• B.M. = Ben Miller

• C.J. = Chris James

• C.A. = Cláudio Alves

• E.B. = Eric Blume

• E.C. = Eurocheese

• E.G. = Elisa Giudici

• G.D. = Glenn Dunks

• N.R. = Nathaniel Rogers (and you can see all his individual charts here)

• N.T. = Nick Taylor

For more about the Film Experience team, visit the About section.

THE WINNERS

It depends on how you look at it.

Our fearless leader Nathaniel Rogers predicted the most nominees correctly, with 81 out of 105 nominees correct (77% success rate). However, if one looks at weighted points (example: putting something in first place gets you 5 points, so on), Christopher James earned the most points with 291 points, out of a possible 355 points.

	TOTAL POINTS	% POINTS	TOTAL NOMS	% NOMS
Nathaniel Rogers	288	81.13%	81	77.14%
Chris James	291	81.97%	79	75.24%
Eric Blume	285	80.28%	79	75.24%
Nick Taylor	282	79.44%	76	72.38%
Cláudio Alves	282	79.44%	75	71.43%
Glenn Dunks	275	77.46%	75	71.43%
Eurocheese	277	78.03%	74	70.48%
Abe Fried-Tanzer	274	77.18%	71	67.62%
Baby Clyde	201	56.62%	53	50.48%

THE RESULTS

So what did we predict correctly, and which categories stumped us? Let’s take a look at some key categories.

Categories With The Strongest Predictions (Points Based)

1. Best Actor - 98.52% predicted correctly

   • All but two writers went 5/5 in this category. Those two writers predicted Tom Cruise for Top Gun: Maverick.

2. Best Original Screenplay - 97.78% predicted correctly

   • All but three writers went 5/5 in this category. Two writers predicted Aftersun, while one predicted Decision to Leave.

3. Best Picture - 96.77% predicted correctly

4. Best Sound - 90.83% predicted correctly

5. Best Animated Feature - 89.62% predicted correctly

Categories With The Weakest Predictions (Points Based)

1. Best Cinematography - 41.48% predicted correctly

   1. Not only did no one get all five correct, no writer did any better than three out of five. 

   2. Top Gun: Maverick was #1 on two-thirds of the ballots. It ended up snubbed in this category.

2. Best Original Score - 63.33% predicted correctly

   1. Not only did no one get all five correct, no writer did any better than three out of five.

3. Best International Feature - 71.85% predicted correctly

4. Best Actress - 73.33% predicted correctly

5. Best Film Editing - 74.17% predicted correctly

Biggest Surprises - Nominees No-One Predicted

• Best Actress - Andrea Riseborough for To Leslie

• Best Animated Feature - The Sea Beast

• Best Documentary Feature - A House Made of Splinters

• Best Film Editing - Monika Willi - Tár

• Best Original Score - Son Lux - Everything Everywhere All At Once

• Best Original Song - “This Is A Life” from Everything Everywhere All at Once

Biggest Snubs - Predicted by All Writers, Missed Oscar

• Best Actress - Danielle Deadwyler - Till

• Best Cinematography - Claudio Miranda - Top Gun: Maverick

• Best Original Score - Alexandre Desplat - Guillermo Del Toro’s Pinocchio

• Best Original Score - Hildur Guðnadóttir - Women Talking

• Best Original Song - “Ciao Papa” from Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio

No Guts No Glory - Shoutouts to Lone Predictions That Worked Out

• Eric Blume was the only writer to correctly predict Ruben Ostlünd in Best Director for Triangle of Sadness!

• Nathaniel Rogers was the only writer to correctly predict Brian Tyree Henry in Best Supporting Actor for Causeway!

• Eric Blume was the only writer to correctly predict Florian Hoffmeister in Best Cinematography for Tár!

• Nathaniel Rogers was the only writer to correctly predict Black Panther: Wakanda Forever in Best Makeup & Hairstyling!

• Nick Taylor was the only writer to correctly predict Volker Bertelmann in Best Original Score for All Quiet on the Western Front!

• Cláudio Alves was the only writer to correctly predict The Batman in Best Sound.

How did you do on your Oscar predictions? Let us know in the comments below.

Previous Weeks:

• Round 1: Post Thanksgiving Snapshot
• Round 2: Doc, International & Animation
• Round 3: Oscar Shortlists
• Round 4: Post-Holidays
• Round 5: Final Predictions

Comments

[Mr Ripley79]

RE I haven't seen Riseborough like most of the world but I do think the actors did a good thing championing small film with a performance they all thought needed to be recognised,I know it came at the expense of 2 women of colour but I do admire them for treading their own path.

[DK]

"Our fearless leader Nathaniel Rogers predicted the most nominees correctly, with 81 out of 105 nominees correct (77% success rate). However, if one looks at weighted points (example: putting something in first place gets you 5 points, so on), Christopher James earned the most points with 291 points, out of a possible 355 points."

The outcome is not weighted so why would weighted predictions make a difference? Clearly Nathaniel wins...

[Elazul]

Nathaniel was spot on with makeup, I was dead sure Blonde would get in! Margot Robbie and Sandy Powell are your biggest misses!

[Peggy Sue]

Yeah, but Nathaniel did not predict Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris so he should be fined.

[Finbar McBride]

I watched Andrea Riseborough in To Leslie. Obviously the emaciated Riseborough is solid as an alcoholic though frankly I thought the minute Allison Janney walks into the frame, Riseborough is completely overshadowed by the stronger actress.

[Chris]

Did pretty decent this year. Got 82 out of 105 on my Gold Derby if we're not counting shorts. The shorts brought me down this year, only getting 8/15.

Only perfect scores I got were Original Screenplay and International Feature.

And I agree with DK, Nathaniel gets the win. The points are good for tie breaking, but most correct predictions matter most.

[Paranoid Android]

Slightly off-topic but hot take: Can something truly be considered a snub if it's not clear which nominee it would replace? Case in-point: the missing noms for Danielle Deadwyler and Viola Davis *can* truly be called snubs because several of the other Best Actress nominees (de Armas, Williams, Riseborough) were on the bubble and the dice could've fallen any number of ways.

But this is a pretty solid Best Picture lineup with all of the nominees appearing in predicted lineups by pundits, so no real snubs there. Same with Supporting Actress (the only major category I guessed 5/5) -- sure, DeLeon would be nice, but the 5 nominees have been mentioned as likely nominees in some configuration for months, and none were likely to get bumped for her.

[whunk (he/him)]

@Finbar Funny, I forgot Janney was even in that movie.