Very Quick Oscar Nomination Reactions
Tuesday, January 24, 2023 at 12:00PM 
by Nathaniel R
Obviously we will say much more (and update the charts) but for now, all the nominees and extremely short takes after the jump...
PICTURE
All Quiet on the Western Front
Avatar the Way of Water
The Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere
The Fabelmans
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
Triangle of Sadness
Women Talking...
quick take - the expected "eight" plus Women Talking (which was obviously on the bubble) and Triangle of Sadness which held on to its buzz from way back in the summer to fend off December hits Glass Onion and The Whale
predictions? 9/10
DIRECTOR
Martin McDonagh, Banshees
Daniels, EEAAO
Steven Spielberg, The Fabelmans
Todd Field, Tar
Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
quick take -- argh. I had Ostlund in my predictions for literally MONTHS. I was so sure and then when buzz faded I withdrew him. Otherwise this is the expected lineup but that fifth slot remained a wildcard the whole season.
predicitions? 4/5
ACTRESS
Cate Blanchett
Ana de Armas
Andrea Riseborough
Michelle Williams
Michelle Yeoh
quick take - we knew this category was messy with possibility. In the end Andrea Riseborough landed an unprecented nomination (no precursor support and with a movie that was barely released) indicating voters were not fully convinced on this category to begin with and that last minute push from her peers did the trick. In the past when grassroots campaigns for actors had come up there were usually indications that people were obsessed with their work before voting week. Our hunch that Viola Davis wouldn't be nominated proved true but we were surprised to see Danielle Deadwyler absent. It just goes to remind us that if your film is not buzzing in multiple categories you're vulnerable until the end (see also Eddie Redmayne's absence this morning)
predictions? 3/5
ACTOR
Austin Butler
Colin Farrell
Brendan Fraser
Paul Mescal
Bill Nighy
quick take - a very very fine lineup! So happy for Mescal who is the most exciting actor of his generation (Thus far)
predictions? 5/5
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Angela Bassett
Hong Chau
Kerry Condon
Jamie Lee Curtis
Stephanie Hsu
quick take - in an extremely volatile category, the strength of Everything Everywhere All At Once across the board buoyed both of its supporting women into the mix. Very sad to see the great Dolly De Leon left out though after her Globes & BAFTA nominations.
predictions? 4/5
SUPPORTING ACTOR
Brendan Gleeson
Brian Tyree Henry
Judd Hirsch
Barry Keoghan
Ke Huy Quan
quick take / predictions? 4/5 Though I had predicted Judd Hirsch, I dropped Brian Tyree Henry rather than Paul Dano. Thrilled for Hirsch and Henry (who is just excellent in Causeway) but wish Dano had been here too.
COSTUME
Babylon
Black Panther
Elvis
Everything
Mrs Harris Goes to Paris
quick take - a major get for Everything Everywhere All At Once. It's very rare for contemporary films to land nominations. The multiverse madness did the trick to get around their anti-contemporary bias.
predictions - 4/5
CINEMATOGRAPHY
All Quiet
Bardo
Elvis
Empire of Light
Tar
quick take - a major surprise in this category with TAR taking the place people of the expected Top Gun Maverick (which most thought would sail to a win! We had it ranked #1 most likely in this category. Whoops). We were WAY off on our predictions this year, going out on a limb thinking they'd switch it up a lot from the ASC nominees. They did indeed fo 3/5 as we predicted but we predicted the wrong switcheroos. They dumped The Batman and Top Gun Maverick when we thought it was Elvis and Bardo that were vulnerable.
predictions? 2/5
PRODUCTION DESIGN
All Quiet
Avatar
Babylon
Elvis
The Fabelmans
quick take - A solid list. Very happy about The Fabelmans landing.That Catherine Martin (Mrs Baz Luhrmann) sure is an Oscar magnet. Here again for Elvis.
predictions 4/5 I missed All Quiet on the Western Front thinking Glass Onion would score.
FILM EDITING
Banshees of Inisherin
Elvis
Everything Everywhere All At Once
Tar
Top Gun Maverick
quick take - Another surprise get for TAR. Which makes us wonder if TAR would have been top five in the pre-expanded BP years. The Fabelmans is the big miss here given that its most thrilling scene is ABOUT film editing.
predictions 3/5 Missed Tar and Banshees, predicting Avatar and All Quiet on the Western Front. Hilariously this category is one of the only places that the latter didn't score.
MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING
All Quiet
The Batman
Black Panther
Elvis
The Whale
quick take predictions -5/5 - they really couldn't get enough of All Quiet on the Western Front in the craft categories.
VISUAL EFFECTS
All quiet
Avatar
The Batman
Black Panther
Top Gun Maverick
quick take / predictions 3/5 - Wakanda Forever did what the first Black Panther couldn't do: score a nomination in this category. I also hopedicted Nope in place of The Batman and stand by the fact that it's much more deserving.
SOUND
All Quiet
Avatar The Way of Water
The Batman
Elvis
Top Gun Maverick
quick take / predictions - 4/5 I predicted Everything Everywhere All At Once instead of The Batman but this is one category that the multiverse madness did not effect.
ORIGINAL SCORE
All Quiet
Babylon
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere
The Fablemans
quick take - predictions 3/5 a surprise miss for Pinocchio and Women Talking given precursor support. I missed All Quiet and Everything Everywhere All At Once which took their place. Both of the latter films were today's overperformers.
ORIGINAL SONG
“Applause” - Tell It Like a Woman
“Hold My Hand” - Top Gun Maverick
“Lift Me Up” - Black Panther Wakanda Forever
“Naatu Naatu” -RRR
“This is a Life” - EEAAO
quick take predictions 3/5- Nothing can get the Oscars to stop defaulting Diane Warren songs to their top five each year. Not even an Honorary Oscar in the same year. No matter how obscure the movie or how end credits-disposal the song is, she will be nominated! Basically there are just four available slots each year. Very sad not to see any songs (other than Naatu Naatu) that contribute to their film's narrative journey or provide indelible scenes. It's all credit style songs (sigh). Pinocchio's "Ciao Papa" and White Noise's "New Body Rhumba" were right there! This branch remains the absolute worst of all Oscar branches.
ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
All Quiet
Glass Onion
Living
Top Gun Maverick
Women Talking
quick take predictions 4/5 - All Quiet instead of The Whale here. Good call. Too bad there couldn't have been a surprise like, say, The Quiet Girl or Pinocchio to replace Top Gun Maverick.
ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
The Banshees of Inisherin
Everything Everywhere
The Fabelmans
Tar
Triangle of Sadness
Quick take /predictions? 4/5 Our hunch that Aftersun had risen enough to score 3 big Oscar nominations did not pay off and it only landed in Best Actor.
INTERNATIONAL FEATURE
All Quiet
Argentina 1985
Close
EO
The Quiet Girl
quick take/predictions? 4/5 Though I suggested in my predictions that Decision to Leave might be a surprise snub, I didn't actually predict this. The Quiet Girl is wonderful though so we won't complain. Pity that there was no room for Pakistan's Joyland which is better than all but one of these films.
ANIMATED FEATURE
Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio
Marcel the Shell
Puss in Boots: The Last Wish
The Sea Beast
Turning Red
predictions? 4/5 I missed The Sea Beast because I wanted to take a huge risk. Alas... Anyway a solid 5 this year. No bad movies nominated.
DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
All That Breathes
All the Beauty
Fire of Love
A House Made of Splinters
Navalny
quick take/predictions? 4/5 I missed House Made of SPlinters which made good on its EFA run to score with Oscar too.
DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Elephant Whisperers
Haulout
How Do You Measure a Year
The Martha Mitchell Effect
Stranger at the Gate
quick take - The Martha Mitchell Effect is really good though I suspect Elephant Whisperers will be a stronger competitor. Both are available on Netflix!
LIVE ACTION SHORT FILM
An Irish Goodbye
Ivalu
Le Pupille
Night Ride
The Red Suitcase
ANIMATED SHORT FILM
The Boy The Mole the Fox
The Flying Sailor
Ice Merchants
My Year of Dicks
An Ostrich Told Me The World is Fake and I Think I Believe It
quick take - I've seen all but one of these (The Flying Sailor) and I would rate them okay (the Boy The Mole The Fox) straight through to perfect (Ice Merchants). My Year of Dicks led to one of the best moments of the Oscar nomination announcement. Now we will forever have audio of Riz Ahmed saying "My Year of Dicks". "You're welcome," - The Academy probably.
ANY QUICK FEELINGS OF YOUR OWN TO SHARE?
Oscars (22)
Reader Comments (37)
MY YEAR OF DICKS is delightful, baby! One of the best nominations of the day.
I think this year more than most it's hard to figure out who the 5 nominees would have been in a smaller Best Pic lineup. EEAAO and Banshees for sure would be in as they near-maxed their possible nominations. But then you have Fabelmans, TAR, and Triangle with Director/Screenplay noms (and acting for the first two), but a lot of craft strength for All Quiet, Elvis, and Top Gun. You can assume Women Talking wouldn't have made it and probably Avatar, which had a pretty soft showing. I'd guess Triangle would miss but I could imagine any other combo of 3 out of 5 for the rest.
This is my favorite Best Picture lineup of the expanded era—I adored Tar, Everything Everywhere all at Once, Banshees of Inisherin and All Quiet on the Western Front. Triangle of Sadness and Women Talking put it over the top for me, and The Whale and Glass Onion were excellent omissions.
Could do without Top Gun and Elvis (meh) and The Fabelmans and Avatar (blech) but I don't think I've felt so strongly about 6/10 BP nominations before. Great list.
Yeah, I think if there were only five nominees, it would be EEAAO, Banshees, Fabelmans, Top Gun, and Tár, with Östlund obviously getting the lone director spot. There's a chance Elvis might replace Tár to result in a rare 3/5 Picture/Director split, but those surprise Editing and Cinematography nominations lead me to believe Tár almost definitely landed in the top 5. If anything, dare I suggest Top Gun might actually be in the 5th spot? That Cinematography snub really is shocking, and at the moment I'm inclined to say that despite it still having at least somewhat of a chance at winning Best Picture (which will evaporate instantly if it fails to win the PGA), it's also now looking possible it could even go home empty handed. It's the frontrunner in Editing and Sound only, and EEAAO could easily win the former, while the latter could also go to Elvis or maybe even a surprise win for AQOTWF.
Speaking of AQOTWF, that's probably the default frontrunner for Best Cinematography now, right? What a weird category that is this year!
Women Talking got the Best Picture nod but it’ll still make for a weird Adapted Screenplay winner, it’s such a big category but with dismal options.
These nominations are wild. I love it. Let chaos reign, especially in Best Actress.
It's very interesting that Bryan Tyree Henry made it in (deserving). It feels like he has had buzz for roles for years. However, he pulled off quite a feat: being a first time nominee that's the lone nominee for his film. There must be genuine passion for him.
I'm happy that Angela Bassett finally has a second nomination. I hope she wins, but she's in a great and competitive category.
I love that Nighy, who was a lock, wasn't snubbed. Clearly, Sony Pictures Classics is very good at getting their films in front of voters. The screenplay nom for Living is huge!
The Flying Sailor is on YouTube
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4Rj3FG8vFtk&ab_channel=TheNewYorker
Out of 20 acting nominees, 16 of them are first-time nominees. Has that ever happened before? Is this the highest ratio of first-time nominees in acting categories. Also, the exact same films and people are nominated in both Best Director and Best Original Screenplay (not sure anyone's noticed that).
Also, a fun piece of trivia for your trivia article. TÁR and Elvis are the 10th Best Picture nominee starring Cate Blanchett and Tom Hanks respectively. From what I could find, there are only three actors in the history of the Oscars who have appeared in 10 Best Picture nominees: Jack Nicholson, Robert DeNiro (who is actually in 11) and Leonardo DiCaprio.
So happy: Everything everywhere all at once in costume design and Triangle of Sadness in best Picture
Hurts so much: the absence of Paul Dano. I've loved him as an actor since Little Miss Sunshine and There will be blood. In The Fabelmans he did a beautiful job and totally nailed the role. That long silent close up after looking the photo of Mitsey and Bernie is beautiful.
Annoyed: the praise for Banshees. I know the problem is mine cause I can't relate to McDonagh's cinema. Anyway rooting for Farrell that gave an incredible performance.
So curious: that Andrea Risebourgh movie
Even if I know I am in minority #teamFabelmans
Ia this the moment to post the sad news that THE FABLEMANS probably can't win Best Picture due to the fact that it didn't score the all-important editing nomination?
I think Best Picture could go at least three ways now: EEAAO, TÀR, BANSHEES, (maybe even TOP GUN). I actually doubt that EEAAO is going to win. There likely just aren't enough young, "hip" voters in the Academy to get a goofball film with hotdog fingers over the line. If I had to predict now, I'd say BANSEES will win, with a small side bet on TÀR.
Only two acting nominees playing real life people (though very iconic ones! Elvis and Marilyn)... the lowest number since I think 2003.
Paul Mescal remarkably becomes the SEVENTH actor born in 1996 to get an acting nomination (Hailee Steinfeld, Abigail Breslin, Florence Pugh, Lucas Hedges, Maria Bakalova, Kodi Smit-McPhee). That's the same amount as all the actors born from 1991-1995 combined (including Austin Butler and Barry Keoghan). Only 1 actor born after 1996 has ever been nominated... Quvenzhane Wallis!
I wrote that Deadwyler was going to get Negga months ago and you almost banned from this site.
Am I miscounting or did Spielberg just tie William Wyler for director with most best picture nominees with 13?
Best Actress has more nominees (3) from Best Picture than Best Actor (2). Is that a first time?
There are also an equal number of actresses and actors from Best Picture nominees: 6 women (3 from lead and 3 from supporting) and 6 men (2 from lead and 4 from supporting).
"Ia this the moment to post the sad news that THE FABLEMANS probably can't win Best Picture due to the fact that it didn't score the all-important editing nomination?"
You already forgot about CODA?
@Peggy Sue. I didn't Deadwyler happening either, but I thought "what am I missing?" and just didn't comment. I actually thought Viola Davis had a better shot. Even though her film is an acton film, it's also a loosely historical one.
Viola is as good as Streep and Blanchett and deserves more than a single Supporting Oscar.
With no craft breakthroughs for Jurassic Park, Fantastic Beasts, Thirteen Days, Amsterdam, have the craft categories ever aligned so closely with best pic noms (& those in strong contention like Black Panther)? Seems like a good research project!
TÁR significantly overperformed and would have been nominated for sound too, had it not been excluded from the shortlist. Academy voters will want to honor the film and the category in which they are most likely to do so is the Best Actress one.
A very good day for Cate Blanchett's Oscar chances.
Overall I predicted 83/105 correctly (excluding the shorts categories as I haven't seen them all)
Best Surprise: TÁR in Cinematography and Brian Tyree Henry
Worst Snub: Dolly de Leon
Most Shocking Inclusion: Brian Tyree Henry & Andrea Riseborough
Most Shocking Snub: Top Gun in Cinematography & Decision to Leave in International Film
@Ad_Mil agreed. I still think she's winning it.
Obviously SUPER happy for EEAAO. Let's take it all the way home!
That said, the lack of love for THE WOMAN KING this season has been confounding. High marks in Rotten Tomatoes, made more money than 70% of the BP nominees, Viola was amazing... just yeah.
Not that it's important but the Diane Warren song is actually not a Credits song. (Well, it ALSO plays at the credits. But, you know).
Lot of stuff to be happy about, Tar in directing, editing and cinematography is a delight. Glass Onion got in over She Said and the costume lineup is nice with me being wrong about Lisy Christl.
I'm heartbroken over both Viola and Danielle, these are hurtful snubs, The Woman King should have been in more categories. Blonde did actually end up as a sole lead actress nomination. That Variety push for Michelle as supporting turned out to be nonsense.
Paul Dano is never going to be nominated like this, not even blockbuster support via The Batman helped.
Babylon so few nominations, HFPA really went overboard, who would have thought?
Best Actor what we thought all season but Mescal Mescal Mescal,he probably wouldn't have got in in a competitive category but very glad he did.
Best Supporting Actor Judd Hirsch pulled a Judi Dench stunt on Dano,very happy people remembered Henry as that nom is the most deserved this year,Lawrence was probably close too,I thought Redmayne might fall.
Best Supporting Actress Solid category bar Condon,well done JLC,Chau,Bassett and Hsu.
Best Actress is my least favourite category this year due to Michelle Williams whose performance I really did not enjoy,how anyone could find Williams better and more moving than Deadwyler is unusual to me and hope Riseborough delivers the goods,I assumed De Armas might be the one to stumble but it was Oscar fave Davis.
All season long i've been high on JLC winning but not so sure with Hsu in her category now,except for Chau and Hsu any of the other 3 could take it.
I only had one horse in this race and Mescal got in, so I absolutely cherish that nomination. I'm a Mescal stan and actually rewatched the final episode of "Normal People" last night for my Mescal fix. Although I was struck with just how amazing Daisy Edgar is in that as well. "Aftersun" deserved more love overall. Just a beautiful movie.
The most insane snub has to be Deadwyler, but best actress does that year after year (Kristen Stewart and Penelope Cruz over Gaga just last year).
Critics Choice Awards was quite close with actor and supporting actor but they were quite wrong about actress, including Ana De Armas.
Very very very happy with these nominations - Mescal was my biggest wish but also love EO and Close in international and Women Talking making best picture. The Fabelmans didn't drop too much and the adapted screenplay category is solid considering how small the pool was.
I believe the 16 first-time acting nominees ties the record set in 1936, which was the very first year of the 4 acting categories we still have. Truly remarkable and exciting. Only once in the last decade have even half of the nominees been first timers. Amazing thing is if Deadwyler hung on instead of Williams and Dano and Hirsch had flipped flopped it could have easily been 18 (Cate and Bassett were always getting in).
Elazul: They try. :)
Quick takes:
Hooray!: Overjoyed for Paul Mescal, who I was thinking wouldn't make the cut. He's amazing in Aftersun and it's a brilliant film. I'm also really happy that Ana de Armas was nominated, as she's astonishing in Blonde. It's a shame that so much of the press today is about problems with the film and how Hollywood never sufficiently honored Monroe--it all feels a bit stingy, as this is de Armas' moment and she is totally deserving of the nomination. Her performance is being treated like a footnote in some corners, or given only begrudging acknowledgment. I'm also really happy for Brian Tyree Henry even though I haven't seen the film (yet)--he's a terrific actor.
Boo: Michelle Williams. Seriously, what an awful nomination--easily the weakest in that category. She gave the worst performance in the film. Deadwyler should have taken her spot. Also ... Judd Hirsch over Paul Dano?
Dump the category already: Best Song is a dumpster fire of a category. Diane Warren again? And, I might be crucified for this, but the Gaga song is just not good, but it seems like they'll nominate her in this category no matter what ("Shallow" was obviously deserving, "Till It Happens to You" was not). "Hold My Hand" is so generic it might as well be ... a Diane Warren song. Clearly they have a type.
@Way Mest. You already forgot about CODA?
Yes. Yes i did. Hasn't everybody? Most forgettable best picture winner since whatzitzname.
Angelo - Didn't Gaga get her first nomination *with* Diane Warren? Makes sense lol.
I haven't even fully heard this new song, but I'm sure it was just a song left on the cutting room floor of a previous album that she offered to Top Gun.
I am very happy This is a Life from EEAAO made it in! I predicted it, but I suppose that was mostly wishful thinking since that's easily my favorite movie of the year and the song is great (I love Mitski)!
In fact, I predicted EEAAO would lead with 11 nominations until at the last second, I removed Hsu for de Leon. I'm glad they did so well!
I'm so thrilled for Ana de Armas and for Blonde, in general. It has been *the* fashionable pastime to shit on that film over the last six months, and while I have no doubt at all that we'll see its popular reputation recovered sooner rather than later, it still smarts in the moment to see people 1) tearing her down directly, 2) tearing the film down (and her by proxy), and 3) tearing the film down but being careful to praise her (cold comfort to an actress you're praising when you rate the film in which you've been careful to praise her a 1/10, which to anyone with a brain communicates: this film had no redeeming value at all, which cannot but include the actress's performance). As I've said elsewhere online: Blonde is less a biopic than a study of a psychological state. Say what you want about how it doesn't align with your senses of decorum or reverence for Monroe, it's a disconcerting, complex, artful journey into a heart of darkness, by way of David Lynch, and she should be (and I daresay is) proud to carry the banner for so challenging and rewarding a film.
As to other reactions of mine: 1) over the moon to see Bardo nominated for Cinematography (it's the winner in my personal tally of what should've made the Oscar cut); 2) am thinking if Andrea Riseborough's performance is, indeed, as good as these celebrities have been saying, it may now win, given that it's going to be in front of the acting branch now in a way it never was before; 3) so happy to see Barry Keoghan nominated (his was the best performance in Banshees, for my money); 4) just do not understand the rabid love for EEAAO (it's entertaining and hilarious and ambitious, but its chaos is alienating, and its insistence on shuffling through universes like a deck of cards undermines what Michelle Yeoh is capable of -- her performance comes too close to amounting to a series of trading cards, in which she's fabulously costumed but never given enough time to do much of note as an actress).
@ Dan H -- I've watched CODA three times this year. And I find myself thinking about it far more often than I think about probably half of the Best Picture winners out there.
Wait where did you see An Ostrich Told Me the World is Fake and I Think I Believe It? It's the only one I'm missing.
I'm guessing The Boy, the Mole, the Fox and the Horse is this year's front-runner for Best Animated Short. If Apple can help CODA to Best Picture then helping The Boy win Best Animated Short should be a piece of cake.
The Woman King is not a better movie than any of the nominated 10 (including the messy Elvis and the somewhat annoying Avatar: The Way of Water). The Academy got this one right.
She Said was a much much much better movie than The Woman King. Explosive story, better performances, and still incredibly relevant. There's a snub.