It's that exciting time of the year again when we start hearing the names of the films selected to compete in this year's Oscar race for Foreign Language Film. It's our signature category at TFE (outside of Lead and Supporting Actressing of course and arguably the eye candy tech categories). All four of the foreign charts are now up and will be frequently updated when news comes in. We currently have 9 official submissions but dozens more will be named in the next three weeks.
Current Predictions
100% likely to change since only about 10% of the field is known at this point.
Chart 1 (Afgahnistan - Finland)
Submissions from Australia, Croatia, and Cuba. Finalists from Brazil and Denmark
Chart 2 (France through Morocco)
Submissions from Georgia & Germany. Finalists from Israel.
Chart 3 (Nepal through Vietnam)
Submissions from Romania, Saudi Arabia, Switzerland, and Venezuela. Finalists from The Netherlands and Spain.
Last year Jose and I interviewed representatives from 17 films and the team reviewed another dozen still and we hope to provide similarly extensive coverage again this year. Check out the charts above and do share with your friends and countrymen!
the great Sonia Braga at Cannes in May
Germany's Toni Erdmann is currently leading the Oscar buzz but the other topic on everyone's lips in this category is what will happen with Brazil's Aquarius. More on that and a couple of other speculative bits after the jump...
If you read the current articles being passed around on the web about what's gone down with Aquarius in Brazil (where it has powerful political enemies after protesting a "coup d'etat" by a new interim government) most of the coverage reads somewhat pessimistic; 'they're out to destroy a great film'. But there's another more optimistic take away from this controversy: Oscar buzz possibilities.
While it's very true that Brazil's committee might shoot their own country's chances in the foot by selecting a less revered film to represent them, this is not neccessarily bad news for the film's overall Oscar chances. History provides other examples of films that were not selected by their home countries or ran into trouble with Oscar's foreign film branch and went to to considerable success abroad and in the US anyway. Here are just a few of those examples from the last twenty years or so:
Three Colors: Red (1994)
The last film in Polish master Krysztof Kieślowski Three Colors trilogy was an instant critical sensation but The Academy, which has since loosened up at least a little bit about issues of provenance, deemed it ineligible to compete in the Foreign Language Film category due to it not being "Swiss enough" given its French cast and Polish director. Miramax was able to capitalize on what many movie lovers deemed a travesty of judgment on the foreign committee's part and the film won traction in regular Oscar categories instead, ending up with three nominations Director, Screenplay, Cinematography... surely a higher total than the film would have received without the boost of that controversy. Red's success was telling and may have shifted Academy feelings about international productions. They were, after all, the way of the future.
Talk to Her (2002)
The Spanish selection commitee, which has had a tetchy relationship to Almodovar's international dominance when it comes to their country's cinematic image, have often passed over Almodóvar movies. But they really misstepped when they said no to this one of his most beloved hits in 2002. Spain ended up without a nomination and the foreign film category ended up with a mixed bag lineup won by Germany's Nowhere in Africa which didn't prove to have much staying power. Talk to Her would have easily won the Oscar for foreign film in that year's crowd. Almodóvar's film went on to a Best Director nomination and a win for Original Screenplay. The film was so popular in the US that those two honors might have still happened with a Foreign Film nomination and win but the snub at home definitely raised the film's profile which only helps when you come with subtitles.
City of God (2002 / 2003)
Brazil DID submit the acclaimed City of God in its year but the foreign committee at AMPAS passed on it anyway. The favela crime drama found such a devout following in its regular theatrical release shortly afterward in early 2003 that it ended up with 4 out-of-nowhere regular Oscar nominations (Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing) none of which would have been possible given the Academy's rules had the foreign committee at AMPAS voted it in as a 2002 nominee.
Maria Full of Grace (2004)
Joshua Marston, has had a difficult time with The Academy as a US director who works in foreign countries. They disqualified his most popular film for not being Colombian enough. Later, though he was expected to be submitted by Albania for The Forgiveness of Blood that didn't happen either. One assumes due to similar fears. It's doubtful that Maria's disqualification in Foreign Film really helped it (Catalina Sandino Moreno was already on her way to a Best Actress nod) but it's a reminder that all is not lost when a film runs into trouble on the way to presumed Foreign Language Film Oscar glory.
What does all this mean for Aquarius?
The protest at Cannes that got them in trouble at home
Well, nothing yet. But whether or not the Brazilian committee attempts to squash it when they make their choice next month, Netflix which will supposedly release the film theatrically in October in the US would do well to capitalize on the controversy right now AND later on and and push hard for Best Actress recognition for Sonia Braga and a bigger profile for the movie in general. Nominations outside of foreign film (should it be dismissed by Brazil) will be tough get but so what? They always are for foreign films. And history proves that happy endings are not impossible for impressive films, even after these kinds of setbacks.
SONIA BRAGA FOR A BEST ACTRESS NOMINATION. Fight for it!