Final Predictions Pt 1: Picture, Director, Screenplays, Actor, Supporting Actress
Final Predictions Pt 2: Animation, Documentary, Score, Song, Sound
Part 3: We have to wrap up final predictions tomorrow! So here's another round of last minute parsing in five categories...
Foreign Film
Notice how all the air went out of this category when they dumped most of the really high profile films in the mix including Globe winner Elle, Berlinale champ Fire at Sea (still eligible in Documentary), Globe nominee Neruda, and Pedro Almodóvar's Julieta? If I were prone to conspiracy theories (I am not) I would think the Executive Committee was so obsessed with Germany's Toni Erdmann that they wanted to clear the way for its win. Given the makeup of the nine finalists, though, there are two records that could theoretically be broken adding at least a little bit of excitement to a race that's gone cold already. First, we could actually have a year that's 60% Nordic if Land of Mine, The King's Choice, and A Man Called Ove are all nominated. That would be the most ever in one year though there have been years when two of those countries faced off (1961, 1987,1991, and 2012). Second if Switzerland's My Life as a Zucchini is nominated here and in animated feature it would be the first film to ever win that double nomination. Only one previous animated film has ever been nominated in this category (Israel's Waltz With Bashir in 2008). Other notable things that could happen: Australia could nab their first nomination ever with Tanna (I'm predicting it for fun though I readily admit there is no buzz for that happening!), and Xavier Dolan could finally be an Oscar player with It's Only the End of the World.
Cinematography
The wise prediction move is to go with the ASC nominees and unlike as in most years where I try to get fancy and suggest a switcheroo (since they only align exactly once in a while) I do believe that's the list we'll see on nomination morning. But if there's an upset I'm guessing Nocturnal Animals and/or Hell or High Water rocks the boat costing either Silence, Moonlight or Lion a nomination, however beautiful those latter three pictures are. La La Land and Arrival are safe (I believe)
Film Editing
The editor's branch will only rarely throw a real curve. Usually they'll follow the Best Picture category closely so that's what we're doing here... though I think I'm going to predict Hell or High Water to nab the spot most are predicting for Manchester by the Sea.
Visual Effects
I've been predicting the same five pictures for quite a long time but I've opted to replace Passengers with Kubo and the Two Strings. I figure if it has gotten this far, it could well be the second animated film ever nominated in this category (the first was The Nightmare Before Christmas way back in 1993)
Makeup and Hair
I've been saying Deadpool, Florence Foster Jenkins, and Star Trek Beyond for a long time so I'm sticking with that. But any combo (the other finalists are Suicide Squad, A Man Called Ove, Hail, Caesar!, and The Dressmaker) could happen in this always perplexing category.
Three categories to go: Costume Design, Supporting Actor, and Actress -- we're having such indecision about all three !!!