Final Predictions: Animation, Documentary, and Sound Categories
Wednesday, January 18, 2017 at 8:00PM 
Another day another dizzying array of last minute nerves over this confusing Oscar race. We've already talked Picture, Director, Actor, and the Screenplay categories right here. Now several more categories...
Animated Feature
A couple of months ago The Red Turtle looked like the sure thing "art" entry in the this category but it doesn't appear to have gathered much momentum and I worry it may be omitted. Working the opposite trajectory is Kubo and the Two Strings (more and more popular... could it even give Zootopia a run for the win?) and My Life as a Courgette which could pick up nominations in both animated feature and foreign language feature, something that has never happened before.
Documentary Feature
The only question that seems relevant at this point is "can anything beat O.J.: Made in America?"...
The television miniseries that obeyed the letter of the law if not the spirit to become Oscar eligible, is so widely popular it looks unstoppable. Of course it has the advantage of having 8 hours to make its case (which in documentary is not a bad thing since they're often loaded with information and case-making). According to THR's Scott Feinberg people are even voting for it in the Best Picture category. I personally think this would be the worst thing to ever happen to the Motion Picture Academy if they let a television miniseries compete for their top prize? Why even have a Motion Picture Academy if it's not different than the Television Academy? (The quality of the documentary is of course irrelevant to this discussion... just as arguments about the quality of various acting performances are completely irrelevant to the discussion of whether the role is supporting or leading)
Anyway I've opted to double down... on the race-focused documentaries in predictions. The topic is too crucial at this horrible juncture in American life and I think the Academy will care. I'm predicting that the wildly acclaimed Cameraperson misses. Not because it isn't deserving but because this is one of Oscar's most conservative branches (conservative aesthetically not politically, he hastens to add.
Our fury levels will be at maximum if Sing Street doesn't get a song nomination
Original Song & Original Score
It seems crazy that we can't assume that this category will be filled entirely by La La Land, Moana, and Sing Street but we can't because it's always a strange slippery category. As such I have no confidence in my predictions which involve all three of those films for four of the five slots.
As previously noticed I am 100% sure that most online pundits will be very wrong about the Original Score category. Most pundits appear to be predicting a line up replete with first time Oscar nominees... some even predicting 4 of the 5 nominations to go to newcomers. This just does not happen in that category (even 2 of 5 being newbies is uncommon!). The music branch is quite insular, regularly patting each other on the back rather than listening to what's out there (or so it appears given their habits). Could the recent expansion of the Academy make them a little looser about what they'll listen to? We shall see. But still the maxium first time nominees I'd ever risk predicting in this category is 3/5. I'm willing to hear great arguments about what might happen because I'm at a loss and went with Oscar's two favorite drugs (Williams & Desplat) one semi-regular (Marianelli) and two freshmen out of the five or so very buzzy 'never been nominated' gang who are in the hunt. All that said a category of mostly newcomers would be great since it's so rare and every artform needs fresh blood.
Most pundits think guild favorite will get Oscar sound nominations. Who am I to argue? ;)
Sound Mixing and Sound Editing
The easiest way to predict this is of course to just go with the CAS nominees but because we like to try for 5/5 perfect scores (which results in worse scores sometimes!) we rarely carbon copy the guild nominees since Oscar rarely carbon copies them in total. I don't recall the sound in Deadpool being anything special but the movie surely has to show up somewhere given the noisy campaign ...so maybe Sound Editing? I believe the sound categories might also save the fading Sully from going Oscar nominationless but we shall see.
Reader Comments (23)
I find it really interesting to look at which songs were submitted for some of these films.
In 'La La Land', for example, are we expecting "City of Stars" to be the frontrunner for the win? It's a good song, but it's not one of the best songs from the film, in my opinion. "Audition (The Fools Who Dream)" is by far the best, most meaningful one, essentially serving as the film's thesis statement. And "Someone in the Crowd" (which boasts probably Hurwitz's most beautiful melody from the film) is a close second for me, and that wasn't even submitted.
For 'Sing Street', meanwhile, the submitted songs are fine, but I would have thought they'd put their energy into pushing "The Riddle of the Model" and "Up", since the construction of these two songs is very much a part of the film's story.
And the score for 'Lamb' is one of the very best of the year. This is a tiny film, and I think I'm the only one who's ever seen it, but it's SO GOOD. Has anyone else seen it? It deserves to be a Best Picture nominee.
I have weird feeling it's gonna be Thomas Newman yet again for original score - he has Finding Dory and Passengers this year. He has been the sole nominee from a film a few times before (Saving Mr. Banks/The Good German) and my gut tells me his gonna do it again.
If Hugh Grant gets nominated and Maryl doesn't, will it be the first time one of her costars gets nominated when she misses?
I can feel a high profile "snub" in Animated Feature in my bones. It might even be Zootopia. A bunch of voters might have moved on to the shiny new Disney movie and it might also suffer from "it doesn't need my help" non-votes like Lego movie probably did.
TheBoyFromBrazil: The Hours.
FYI: You're currently using the Weiner for I Am Not Your Negro, which hurts my heart. ;-)
PS. The Eagle Huntress was pretty buzzy out here before the nomination voting deadline.
"If Hugh Grant gets nominated and Maryl doesn't, will it be the first time one of her costars gets nominated when she misses?"
As a lead? The Hours
As an actress? Julia, Manhattan. The latter, of course, was in the year she was nominated for something else.
"If Hugh Grant gets nominated and Maryl doesn't, will it be the first time one of her costars gets nominated when she misses?"
Marvin's Room
Documentary always seems to have at least one shocker. That's the only thing I am counting on.
I loved Moana and the songs In it, but I don't get why How Far I'll Go is the only song getting plaudits, when You're Welcome and especially Where You Are are so much better.
If two La la Land songs get nominated I'm going to predict How Far I'll Go though, It will give LMM his EGOT and surely that will be hard to resist for some voters, especially if the La La Land votes gets split.
brooooke - i dont even remember Where You Are. which one was that? I think You're welcome was one of the weaker songs.
@brooooke: Disney didn't submit "You're Welcome" or "Where You Are" to the Academy, so they're not relevant to the discussion. "How Far I'll Go" is pretty clearly positioned as the film's marquee song, down to its use in the advertising, so it's not surprising discussion has centered around it.
@MJS: I don't think Zootopia is in any danger of losing votes to Moana, which slightly underwhelmed in its reception and certainly in its box office.
"Where You Are" is the first number, the island song.
I spent ages thinking CAMERAPERSON was too outre for the Academy, but then it made the final 15 and - duh - it is actually *about* documentary and Kristen Johnston is a beloved person in the field (She's the Octavia Spencer of documentary; everybody's worked with her!) so I'm actually going on a limb and predicting it alongside the three films about race and ZERO DAYS because if people actually watched the films and actually followed the news - which I feel documentarians do - they'd see it as very pertinent and powerful.
You original score category actually looks totally legit, although I'm not sure about KUBO. But likeyou said, I have no idea what else it could be if not another first timer like Korzeniowki (who I'd hunch is more likely like Moonlight of Jackie, quality not factored). Hmmm.
You're stealing my thunder of predicting MISS SHARON JONES for song!
Paul -- whoops fixed. i changed it on the index page and forgot to do it on the chart page. ha
I really hope you are wrong about John Williams gettig a nom but I fear you are right. The music branch is so lazy sometimes with their picks.
Considering how well I think "Hidden Figures" will do, I'd be surprised if none of Pharrell's songs make it. But indeed, who knows.
I will personally lead a riot if Drive it Like You Stole It doesn't receive an Original Song nomination. It's so great in the movie BUT it's great on its own too!
I do not get the love for Life, Animated. It's a badly-made documentary.
I'm not sure how the rules work, but does anyone think it's possible that they'll resurrect the old Original Song Score/Adaptation Score category this year? That's really where La La Land belongs (the score melodies really come from the songs). You could put Moana in there, too.
Ian, you'd be right, but it also easily targets emotions so it's easy to see people liking it (as many have). My review here at TFE was not a positive one.
Where You Are is the song about the island. I love it so much.
@Sean C.
I didn't know this thanks. Is that unusual not to submit all the songs?