The Final Predictions Begin!
Tuesday, January 17, 2017 at 9:00PM 
I've updated the Picture, Director, Screenplays, Actor and Supporting Actress charts with final predictions. Though many questions remain we must make the hard calls with nominations only a week away!
Best Picture & Best Director
The Best Picture race will literally never be "locked up" again so long as Oscar sticks with its "5 to 10" balloting math. That shifting number of Best Pictures means that you just never know. I want to say 8 again this year but what if its 5,6,7,9, or gulp 10. The big question mark, at least for this pundit, is Nocturnal Animals. Given that it's the movie that won't go away in precursor season with great showings at the Globes and BAFTA and significant buzz in Los Angeles despite its polarizing nature and its relatively low box office take (lower than ALL the other still buzzing pictures with the exception of Loving). The thing is you can't vote AGAINST something. You can only vote for it, so we're predicting Tom Ford in Best Director.
Leading Actor
Arguable the most settled of the Oscar acting races with Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, and Ryan Gosling all steady players for months. At this point it would be a minor surprise to see one of the ousted. Support for their rivals seems to be far too diffuse.
Supporting Actress
The other "settled" acting race though you can definitely make arguments about one of two women spoiling the party: Greta Gerwig who is brilliant in 20th Century Women and who has definitely earned her place at Hollywood's most prestigious tables after years of fine work, or Janelle Monae, who proves herself a total natural in Hidden Figures with a bright film career ahead of her. Supporting Actress is a friendly category to double nominees which means if there's a major shake-up it could be both Octavia and Janelle in the mix.
With Captain Fantastic holding strong for Viggo and with its SAG nomination, we're betting the Screenplay shows up, too.
Original Screenplay & Adapted Screenplay
The big question in Adapted might be whether Fences has enough goodwill to earn August Wilson a posthumous nomination, or if naysayers who believe its too "stagey" have made it a Viola & Denzel only party. My guess is that if Tom Ford doesn't show up in Director he shows up here instead and steals that slot away from the late theatrical giant.
In Original Screenplay with three films looking unstoppable for nominations (Manchester, Hell or, La La), one looking like a very typical "of course it nabbed #1 votes!" critical darling style nominee (The Lobster), there's presumably only one spot left and SO many strong screenplays fighting for it: Captain Fantastic, 20th Century Women, Zootopia, Toni Erdmann, Jackie.
Reader Comments (75)
I'm not sure if there's a film from this decade I hate more than Nocturnal Animals.
Does Rachel Weisz have a chance next year?
I feel like the voters in the directors branch might resent the fact that Tom Ford is a fashion designer who merely dabbles in filmmaking rather than a full time director... that said I don't have a much better theory for that fifth slot either.
I also can't help but feel like Arrival is being a bit over-estimated. I feel like that movie peaked a bit early and feels like yesterday's news at this point.
Kind of a lame BP field all told. I see huge drawbacks to pretty much everything outside of the "big three" and the combo of Lion, Hidden Figures, and Hacksaw Ridge have been this trifecta of lame corny Oscar bait which just won't go away and it's hard to tell which of them the Academy is going to bite with.
I am not usually a person who goes with "you're crazy" types of comments (because the people who say you may be insane, for e.g. not predicting Streep in Actress, are usually nowhere to be found when it comes true).
However......:-)
I do find it baffling that, given you have acknowledged that NOCTURNAL ANIMALS has momentum and fans, and those BAFTA nominations, that Jake Gyllenhaal is nowhere to be seen on the Best Actor page, not even in the vote siphoning section. BAFTA nominated the exact same 5 men as Oscar last year, and so I think Jake should be floating around somewhere as a possible spoiler.
Nathaniel! I need your take on the Production and Costume Design categories. What even is happening in those races? Impossible to predict!
MJS -- we have different definition of "lame corny Oscar bait" i guess because Lion and Hidden Figures are such well made moving and inspirational movies. There's definitely room for inspirational dramas in the world as long as they're good and not lame ;)
Maybe it's stubbornness, but I just don't think Andrew Garfield is gonna make the cut. He was Globe, BAFTA and SAG nominated for Social Network, and that film was loved by pretty much everyone.
But honestly, I just don't want Hacksaw Ridge to get recognized for anything
JS -- i could see him missing, too, but I worry that it would be Viggo that got left out if someone rose up suddenly.
I don't see the academy being in any rush to honor Tom Ford. If there is an institution that will snub him it's AMPAS. We have to constantly remind ourselves that they are big snobs about this.
It's crazy to me how much weaker best actor looks relative to best actress year after year after year. I think there are some amazing foreign male performances that need to be more in the conversation every year.
I think Nicole will miss and Janelle will be in. The recent "Kidman supports Trump" got a little out of hand and I think it may really throw a weak player out of the game. Not to say that Nicole's performance is weak at all here. It's unfortunate that the Viola is overdue and the Moonlight critical tsunami narratives took away from the appreciation of that heartfelt expert performance. Oh Nicole, will Hollywood ever really embrace you?
Roger -- i hear you. But for some reason, some people just love it.
Ford over Scorsese in director would be - without exaggeration - a catastrophe. I highly doubt that the branch is this gullible and would honor a fashion designer's lurid trash over a master's stately passion play. Silence may not have "buzz" but you can never count out a Scorsese, especially one as well regarded as this.
Taraji P. Henson at the expense of either Huppert or Benning or both (depending Meryl eill be there)
Safest Best:
A. Adams
E. Stonne
Jackie Portman:)
Taraji P. Henson
La Meryl
My guts
Adams, Stone, Portman. Henson, Benning (alt. Huppert)
Not happy, but ht most logicasl thing. Hidden Figures has peaked at the right time. I will so, so pissed off about I won't bother to post.
Save this for the name of nominations AA are wayyyy more predictable than they think they are.
I think Nicole will miss and Janelle will be in. The recent "Kidman supports Trump" got a little out of hand and I think it may really throw a weak player out of the game. Not to say that Nicole's performance is weak at all here. It's unfortunate that the Viola is overdue and the Moonlight critical tsunami narratives took away from the appreciation of that heartfelt expert performance. Oh Nicole, will Hollywood ever really embrace you?
What are you talking about? The Trump controversy came after the voting ended with the Academy. No one can vote against her because it was an after the fact thing. It will hurt her down the line when she's worthy for her film work this year and certain award bodies shun her.
I still believe Lily Gladstone will get that fifth spot. Does Janelle really look closer to a nomination than Gladstone? I'm also predicting Viola will be in leading and Octavia won't make it, so there will plenty space for Gladstone and Gerwing. Keepomg my finger crossed.
Saw 20th Century Women this weekend and I sure hope you're wrong on Actress and Screenplay. But worthy films are shut out every year.
@Nathaniel R
"There's definitely room for inspirational dramas in the world as long as they're good and not lame ;)"
There's certainly room for them in the world, but given the multitude of great and challenging movies this year having them take up Best Picture slots seems kind of nuts to me. It's like critics suddenly lowered their standards and started giving passes to those three movies despite the fact that they seem to embody everything the Academy is normally mocked for indulging in and more daring films like Jackie and Silence are getting left by the wayside because of it.
Nicole Kidman is gonna be fine. I do wish she'd work less...I'm a mega-fan and even I've started to assume that her vehicles will be dead on arrival.
She's the kind of actress who you could build an SPC/Focus/A24 campaign around if her outings felt rare and unmissable. I consider her one of the finest actresses in the world and I've missed my share of Kidman movies over the last decade.
Life is just too short to rent The Railway Man.
"Save this for the name of nominations AA are wayyyy more predictable than they think they are."
What are you saying?
Nathaniel: Do you really think La La Land's screenplay nod is locked?
@TonyT
Best Actor > Best Actress in 2007, 2008, 2009, 2011, 2012, 2014....
@Roger
Agreed.
I am so hoping for Huppert! I really think she can win.
Also, I'm still so confused about all this Nocturnal Animals hate. It's literally
one of my favorites this year. You can't deny that it is beautifully made, even if you keep calling it misogynistic.
John -- i keep hearing people saying things like this in comments that SILENCE is so revered but i've yet to hear it in my real life. Maybe i've read the wrong people but the critics i've noticed who are revering it are the same ones who always prostrate themselves when a Scorsese movie comes out and in a competitive year like this don't you need more than just your typical devout fanbase who thinks everything you do is your career-capping masterpiece? Especially when no one is actually going to the movie which will be the lowest grossing nominee if its nominated.
I just don't see it. But yes if the choice was between Ford & Scorsese I'd take Scorsese in a heartbeat.
Chofer -- i'm with jaz. i have literally no idea what you're trying to say with that sentence.
Curtis -- i'd prefer not to have to think about it ever again but if it gets multiple nominations i'll probably end up writing about it again and hopefully it will clear things up.
Still perplexed by Garfield's showing for Hacksaw Ridge in the precursors. There's a lot of "acting" in that performance but not necessarily in a good way. Is the actor branch going to eat up what he's cooking? They've nominated iffy performances before but even Garfield himself offers slightly better alternative in Silemce.
I don't want Hacksaw Ridge to get recognized for anything, either - certainly not Garfield's ridiculous Simple Jack-performance!
Glad to see you are finally acknowledging "Deadpool" was a contender... even thought I think you're underestimating its appeal. I'm going a bit NGNG and marking it down for noms at Picture, Lead Actor, Adapted Screenplay, Film Editing and Make Up. I am really confident on Film Editing and Adapted Screenplay, honestly, and think Reynolds might be #7th or 8th in the race, right now, for Actor. I factor several things, regardless of my opinion on the film...
1) Its rewatchability
2) It REALLY stands out of the rest
3) It is FRESH, and clearly NOT Oscar-bait
4) Reynolds charisma
5) Clever, excellent campaigning both for the release and the last-minute Awards season that caught them by surprise.
6) Many AMPAS members probably dismissed the film at the release and are watching it now, due to buzz. The last-minute discovery is also a factor (Million Dollar Baby, anyone?)
7) It is a film that has opened new ways for the industry. The PGA love indicates it is way better regarded than originally thought, and that there's will of the industry - just check out the guilds nominations - to honor it, among the best of the year.
8) There is a history of the AMPAS breaking expectations in their noms, when a film impacts the industry in such a big way, from Lord of the Rings to...
9) It's this year's Mad Max: Fury Road. And that was a reboot/4th sequel of a sci-fi apocaliptic actioneer... that earned 10 noms and 6 wins, and probably barely lost Best Picture.
10) After Brexit or Trump, do you really not expect it to even win? Stranger Things have happened. I know, it'll be a nightmare for many, too.
Also, after seeing "La La Land", I confirm my suspictions that Chazelle is trying to occupy Christopher Nolan's position as the most overrated director at work... Nolan already defeated Singer. I'd consider Abrams, if it wasn't because a lot of people already thinks he's just a hack that can't even decently copy an original.
Plus, I forgot the most important...
11) MM:FR happened after an expansion to refresh the Academy age, but before the 600+ new members added to broad the diversity and taste. It's unsure if they'll be more open to nominate a film in which the anti-hero is sodomized by his girlfriend with a dildo... or discuss if it's right to hit a woman, with two women before killing them anyways (one of the most clever meta moments in the whole film, and the most daring). 2016 is a mistery, I am certainly NOT expecting the usual fare, but some really huge surprises in Nomination morning... for example, I have Hell or High Water only for Supporting Actor and Cinematography... I recall nothing else.
Hey Nat regarding a few things; I feel as though Tom Hanks is likely out of the running now that the film has lost all buzz and he couldn't even muster a globe nod. For months now, I've had Viggo in my number three spot and I really think he's safer than Gosling or Garfield. Those that have seen the film love him, even those that aren't fans of the movie itself - the SAG ensemble nod helped him as the potential sole nominee in a similar way to how Room's TIFF audience win helped propel Brie Larson as its representative for Oscar glory. Gosling could miss a la Gere, McGregor, or Fiennes in Shakespeare in Love - not intense or dramatic or transformational enough for Academy tastes, or Garfield could miss due to competition with himself in Silence, and a lacklustre performance. I would say Garfield (Silence), Edgerton, and Gyllenhaal are the closest spoilers in Best Actor.
Also I would absolutely love a write up about Nocturnal Animals at some point - I really disliked it but struggle to describe why besides calling it empty and shock-reliant. With many past movies like Black Mass you've been able to perfectly articulate what it was that instinctively repelled me about a film, and it would be interesting to hear your Nocturnal Animals thoughts - regardless of Oscar success.
Just in clarification related to Jake and Emily Blunt BAFTA noms. The current BAFTA system to select the noms is similar to the SAG. Every placement matters in equal parameter and every vote counts for a total. At BAFTA you can get many votes #4 and #5 and still gets the nom. With the Oscars is a little bit different, which passion votes matters more. While it's true Gyllenhaal's BAFTA mention is great, it's better not overreacting yet. True, the film got BAFTA love, but it won't be the first time a BAFTA film underperforms at Oscars. Calm down.
Also Nadir, I would love to see Gladstone nominated. The real problem is IFC Films didn't make any campaign mode to her or the film and the screeners came too late.
I dun tink Ford will be nom at best director giving how "elite" the director's branch, He has a higher chance o landing an adapted screenplay nom and judging from the GG & BAFTA luv, he might just land it.
Gold Derby recently ran an article whether the voters might make up to Gyllenhaal for the unjust snub 2 yes ago & follow BAFTA in nom him & if he gets in at whose expense. The current 5 seems locked now but if there is any upset, I believe Mortensen might b the casualty.
Hidden Figures peaked at the right time, sure, but I dun tink it will crack the super tight Best Actress race. IMO, the voters would tink it's enuff to vote it into BP & BSA & Spencer will be the de facto nominee for the three great ladies.
Stone, Portman, Adams & Streep r virtually locked now, so I X-ing my fingers & prayin hard for La Huppert!
I'll eat my words if I am wrong, but every year we get a populist film like DEADPOOL and people suddenly start saying "wow, the Academy is going to nominate it everywhere" and then THE AVENGERS and CIVIL WAR get visual effects nominations and THE HANGOVER gets nothing. People bring up BRIDESMAIDS, but that had way more critical heat behind it. I dunno. I just doubt they're gonna suddenly embrace a super crude superhero movie when they've more or less ignored great ones.
I have both Monae and Gladstone in my top 5 (I love both their films and would nominate both for Best Picture - there's a place for both populist cinema and indie cinema with me). But I think Monae is more likely to be nominated than Gladstone. When I saw Certain Women, the man behind me was fidgeting so much that I had to move so I could concentrate on the film. Some viewers definitely did not respond to its pacing, and I'm sure it plays even slower on a screener. Additionally, the best of the three segments (the Stewart/Gladstone segment) is the last of the three segments, so Academy voters who only watch part of the movie (and undoubtedly there will be some of them) will never see Gladstone's performance. Monae is apt to pick up votes from viewers who were impressed by her range in Moonlight and Hidden Figures, as well as the extra "I had no idea she could act!" contingent.
Any chart updates on Best Supporting Actor?
Nico, I think Garfield should be up for Best Actor for Silence.
I actually really liked HF, sure it was conventionally told, but it was also a darn good film. I do not think Taraji will get in though if anyone either Monae or Spencer. I haven't seen Lion or Silence yet. I also didn't know critics were a part of the Academy. I think we tend to forget things like this.
Tom is very well-connected, so it wouldn't surprise me to see him get an Oscar nom. He has people like Tom Hanks in his corner, working it for him.
Nikki -- critics are not part of the Academy. The closest thing you'll get to that is "at large" members (i think they're called. i haven't had my coffee yet) who aren't in any specific branch and only vote on best picture... and from my personal anecdotes those largely seem to be Public Relations people who work with critics and the media all the time, getting them screenings and pushing narraties and the like.
Glenn -- this is my thinking exactly. Why now of all times? And for something this crude ? Crude comedies haven't really been embraced in the past... even when people thought they might be. The PGA does this to people every year and every year they seem to forget that some popular blockbuster in the mix did not go on to a nomination. I remember when STAR TREK WILL BE NOMINATED was all the rage because of its PGA nomination. it went on to 4 nominations (not a bad tally) but even in the all time most sci-fi friendly year for the Academy it was passed over in the big categories.
I feel like Supporting Actress is missing an ingenue this year... But between Gerwig and Monae I can't figure out who could unseat (presumably) Spencer... I would have said Kidman seemed more on the fence, but the recent resurgence of "Lion" almost locks her in.
The only scenario I can see happening is Monae and Spencer splitting those #1's, which lets Gerwig (who will presumably be getting at least some passion votes) slip in.
I'm SO torn on Best Supporting Actress. It's an embarrassment of riches this year. I like your 5, but I do wonder about Nicole. I feel like she'd be the first to go if there anyone else rises up from the ranks. Can you imagine if Janelle Monae took that spot and four of the five nominations went to women of color? That would be truly amazing.
My guess for the "out-of-nowhere" nomination is going to be Adam Driver for Paterson in Best Actor at Viggo's expense.
I also wouldn't be surprised if Henson takes Huppert's spot. HF is a huge hit, peaking at just the right time, and she's been nominated before. Huppert's film is still out there but it never even really peaked and it's very un-Academy-friendly (sorry, awkward phrase).
I'm not saying this WILL happen, I just wouldn't be surprised if it did happen.
And I'm still trying to accept that Bening won't happen but ugh, it will be so disappointing.
I think Taraji P Henson is this year's stealth candidate. She's the standout in Hidden Figures for me. There isn't a whiff of Cookie in her performance. The question is at who's expense? With Meryl Streep rising even faster and higher, it looks like Isabelle Huppert or Amy Adams may be vulnerable. My guess would be Huppert will be out. Saddest aspect is that Ruth Negga's beautiful performance's chances for a nomination have become downright minuscule.
I have not seen Hidden Figures yet, but it seems to have a lot of momentum. I just saw Lion and could see Kidman missing. I liked her in it, but it's not even my favorite performance of hers this year (I am one of few people that seemed to really like Family Fang). I do not consider it to be one of her more remarkable performances--it's more middle-of-the-pack for me. The election comments came at the tail end of the voting period--so they may have impacted SOME votes. She did a lot of campaigning and the movie is picking up some steam, so that's in her favor. I think it will be her or Monae in the fifth slot. Gladstone I just do not see happening. She's been left out of the precursors, it came out a little while ago, and it's SUCH a small film. I don't think Gerwig stands much of a chance, either. If Annette was more of a sure thing, I think her odds would be improved--but, alas, that is not the case.
It does seem like Kidman has an almost impossible time getting nominated, and if the election comments don't fade it'll be harder from here on out. This is her best shot in eons, but I don't think she's a lock. As a fan, it would be nice to see her nomination count rise (I think she was deserving of additional nods for To Die For, Birth, and The Paperboy), but I didn't feel like she was so exceptional that it would be a crime if she missed.
I will throw a brick through my tv if Taraji P. Henson replaces Isabelle Huppert. Lovely woman and lovely performance but in no way does she reach the heights of La Huppert. People have talked about Hidden Figures peaking at the right time, and that is absolutely true, but Huppert was too with that surprise Globe win. If Henson replaces anyone it will probably be Adams or Portman (which would also suck cause Natalie was transcendent in that role).
One surprise snub that always sticks out for me is Garfield in The Social Network. Now that Hacksaw Ridge seems to be losing its buzz and Silence was DOA at the box office, I wonder if Hanks doesn't sneak in -- it'll be a makeup nomination for Captain Phillips, Bridge of Spies, and Saving Mr Banks.
I'm finally seeing Nocturnal Animals on Thursday and Silence on Sunday. Then my main pre-Oscar viewing will be done. (As usual, I'm behind on Docs, Foreign, Shorts and Animated. But I'm also exhausted.)
Re: Deadpool. It's the crudeness that makes it stand out from the superhero pack in the best possible way. I remember more scenes, lines etc. from it than any superhero film since The Dark Knight (and before that Superman 1 & 2 with Reeve.) And I predict two Oscar nominations, just don't ask me to name the categories yet (hedging my bets).
I think the main threat to Garfield's nomination is splitting the vote with Silence, where he is far better. If he's out, I hope that will allow Joel Edgerton to slip in. Such an underrated performance. The other beneficiary could be Tom Hanks for Sully. God I hope not.
ken s: Eh, between Captain Phillips in 2013 and Bridge of Spies last year (where he's, admittedly, better than in Sully, because those movies gave him better material to work with), this make up nom would be more than justified. Speaking of Lead Actor: Having now seen La La Land, I'm really hoping Gosling's acting nomination (though he's definitely not "bad" in it) is, nudge nudge, a Nice surprise, as delusional as that might be.
Never justified, always at the expense of a better performance by someone who may never be in the hunt again.
Paul Outlaw: Okay, yeah, that was out of line, especially considering that Tom Hanks in Captain Phillips got passed over for Christian Bale in American Hustle (which...did ANYONE really like that performance, even if they really liked the movie), so, yeah. Sorry.
Volvagia: I think Ryan Gosling carries La La Land - a minority opinion, I know. I think Tom Hanks was robbed when he wasn't nominated for Captain Phillips, but nominating him for Sully would be completely unjustified on every level. Jake Gyllenhaal's omission for Nightcrawler is the most scandalous omission of this millennium,and one of the worst of all time, but that doesn't mean I want to see him nominated for Nocturnal Animals.