The Final Predictions Begin!
Tuesday, January 17, 2017 at 9:00PM 
I've updated the Picture, Director, Screenplays, Actor and Supporting Actress charts with final predictions. Though many questions remain we must make the hard calls with nominations only a week away!
Best Picture & Best Director
The Best Picture race will literally never be "locked up" again so long as Oscar sticks with its "5 to 10" balloting math. That shifting number of Best Pictures means that you just never know. I want to say 8 again this year but what if its 5,6,7,9, or gulp 10. The big question mark, at least for this pundit, is Nocturnal Animals. Given that it's the movie that won't go away in precursor season with great showings at the Globes and BAFTA and significant buzz in Los Angeles despite its polarizing nature and its relatively low box office take (lower than ALL the other still buzzing pictures with the exception of Loving). The thing is you can't vote AGAINST something. You can only vote for it, so we're predicting Tom Ford in Best Director.
Leading Actor
Arguable the most settled of the Oscar acting races with Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, and Ryan Gosling all steady players for months. At this point it would be a minor surprise to see one of the ousted. Support for their rivals seems to be far too diffuse.
Supporting Actress
The other "settled" acting race though you can definitely make arguments about one of two women spoiling the party: Greta Gerwig who is brilliant in 20th Century Women and who has definitely earned her place at Hollywood's most prestigious tables after years of fine work, or Janelle Monae, who proves herself a total natural in Hidden Figures with a bright film career ahead of her. Supporting Actress is a friendly category to double nominees which means if there's a major shake-up it could be both Octavia and Janelle in the mix.
With Captain Fantastic holding strong for Viggo and with its SAG nomination, we're betting the Screenplay shows up, too.
Original Screenplay & Adapted Screenplay
The big question in Adapted might be whether Fences has enough goodwill to earn August Wilson a posthumous nomination, or if naysayers who believe its too "stagey" have made it a Viola & Denzel only party. My guess is that if Tom Ford doesn't show up in Director he shows up here instead and steals that slot away from the late theatrical giant.
In Original Screenplay with three films looking unstoppable for nominations (Manchester, Hell or, La La), one looking like a very typical "of course it nabbed #1 votes!" critical darling style nominee (The Lobster), there's presumably only one spot left and SO many strong screenplays fighting for it: Captain Fantastic, 20th Century Women, Zootopia, Toni Erdmann, Jackie.
Reader Comments (75)
Volvagia: I liked Christian Bale in American Hustle, and I think Ryan Gosling carries La La Land (a minority view if there ever was one), so it looks like we're not on the same page (or maybe the same book,even). I thought it was unfair that Tom Hanks was passed over for Captain Phillips, but please for the love of God don't nominate him for that right-wing sploogefest Sully. And speaking of make-up noms, the omission of Jake Gyllenhaal for Nightcrawler is the most scandalous omission of this millennium, and one of the worst of all time, but that's no excuse for nominating him this year for Nocturnal Animals.
Sorry about the double post, but the first one didn't appear for the longest time, and I thought my deep insights had been lost forever.
Does AMPAS really give make up noms? It's hard to prove - or disprove - of course, but are there any examples of so-so performances getting in and "make up" being the only reasonable explanation?
It's rare that I don't like a Bale performance, and this was no exception. I preferred what he and Adams were doing to the scenery chewing of the other two leads.
It may be a minority opinion, but it's absolutely true.
Nat - I know, I was being sarcastic.
If Henson did replace anyone it would be Adams, but I think Negga may be the surprise not Henson. Or they could "Kate Winslet" Viola in lead.
Make-up nominations may be rare, but I'd say make-up/consolation wins are more common.
I watched La La Land and though it was charming like most films that pay homage to musicals, Hollywood, Hollywood musicals, I get this nagging feeling that the film tries too hard to make me like it. I felt emotionally manipulated as much as I am aware that I was also enjoying some of the playful cinematographic shots, the accessibility and unbearable lightness of the film, and most of the scenes involving Emma Stone. I watched it with a friend who liked it a lot, so I guess the film registered differently for both of us.
(I gotta add that I can whistle the first verse of "City of Stars" but after that I don't even know how the song ends -- does it have an ending?).
I am probably in the minority here who actually like Nocturnal Animals. I was unprepared for the narrative detours the film made. Yet, I thought Jake Gyllenhaal was the worst in the ensemble. I know it's a bit of a sacrilege to say that considering that I join the chorus of approval for his magnificent turn in Nightcrawler and many other films he was in. And here's another one: I thought Amy Adams was actually better and more effective/affective in this film than in Arrival. I can't quite explain why this is but her character (especially the last scene) pulled at my emotional heartstrings without me knowing exactly how and why.
I love the diversity of voices and tastes in TFE but once a film or performance gets a hold of me, I rarely change my mind about it.
ken s: I didn't say Gosling was bad (I said in an earlier comment thread that he definitely paves over Chazelle's terrible idea of romantic banter with sheer charisma), so much as I'd prefer his OTHER 2016 performance to be the nomination push as far as acting goes.
Gena: Johnny Depp in Finding Neverland, Brad Pitt in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button and Steve Carell in Foxcatcher most immediately spring to mind in terms of performance quality.
I am very pleased that Gosling has gotten the traction that he has so far. With every precursor nominations I worry that he's going to miss. But so far so good.
It's such a hard performance to judge awards wise. There's almost nothing baity about the role, but I am of the opinion that the film works largely because of his incredibly understated, slow burn performance, that in turn helps ground the movie, countering Emma Stone's terrifically glossy performance that sometimes feel a bit too modern for its own good.
"Does AMPAS really give make up noms? It's hard to prove - or disprove - of course, but are there any examples of so-so performances getting in and "make up" being the only reasonable explanation?"
The one that immediately sprang to mind was Angelina Jolie in Changeling, right after the year she was egregiously snubbed for A Mighty Heart (IMO, her most fully realized and greatest performance outside of Girl, Interrupted)....and they nominated Cate Blanchett in Elizabeth The Golden Age, of all things!
Thanks, Aaron.
"Café Society" may show up in Costume Design, Production Design and Cinematography
I just saw MANCHESTER-BY-THE-SEA, and I echo your thoughts on the podcast, Nathaniel, I do not get the fuss. At all. Over here in the UK, it's been getting 5 star reviews. How??? I was so bored.
Unfortunately, I do see it as a lock for BP.
Re: Viggo's chances
I adore Captain Fantastic and I adore him in it and I adore him in general, but his very public stance during the election really deflated me. I would imagine there are Oscar voters who feel the same way. Then again, if Affleck (unlike Nate Parker) can coast through awards season, I suppose Viggo (unlike Susan Sarandon, who couldn't manage a Globe nod) can as well.
Paul - I feel ya on Viggo. Adore the man and the actor, but it broke my heart to see his full-throated espousal of the kind of rank false equivalency that helped tilt the election. I'd still give him the nod just for the performance (and I think he'll get it), and as with Sarandon, whom I love as an actress, I'll continue to watch & appreciate his work...but I just don't feel the same about him/them as I used to.
I loved Nocturnal Animals, but this surge for an off-the-wall film at the end of the campaign reeks of "Nightcrawler" buzz. It's picking up steam, but is not the Oscar cuppa. I bet it underperforms significantly.
Lynn: Heartbreaking, yes.
^As an aside, one of my favorite things about the Oscars is that the conversation and buzz continue to develop even after the ballots are in; as such, late "buzz" tends to often be quite wrong.
I agree with early commenters that Tom Ford really doesn't feel like the type of personality and filmmaker the directors branch will embrace, even in this year where you just need a few extra votes than four or five other men to fill that fifth slot. DGA and Oscar usually doesn't line up for Best Director, but I wouldn't be surprised if Garth Davis gets the nod, especially if "Lion" goes over... I would think Scorsese would be an easy in, but "Silence" is just starting to play, so unless AMPAS got in early to the party...
Regarding Best Actress, Stone, Portman and Adams are the only actresses who feel truly safe for the nomination in my opinion. The last two slots feel like they're between Bening (Hollywood royalty), Henson (popular actress in the right vehicle in the right moment) and Huppert (International star finally getting her due in the US.) It seems odd that Henson wouldn't get in if AMPAS ends up going all in on "Hidden Figures," but its peaking a week or two late for a full nomination sweep... Huppert is my favorite performance of the line up (she should win), but I'm thinking she could up this year's Tilda Swinton/"We Need to Talk About Kevin." Swinton had a number of big precursor nods including SAG and BAFTA (which Huppert missed or was ineligible for) but was likely the 6th place nominee when it came to AMPAS... Of course with a weighted ballot, who knows, because Bening and Huppert feel more like performers/performances that actors would love more than Portman or Adams.
Ken S: 2014's Best Actor should have included Gyllenhaal and Fiennes. But who do you dump from Cooper, Cumberbatch or Carrell? (Cooper being an Academy favorite in the biggest film from the year, Cumberbatch playing a historical figure, Carrell playing a real person, under prosthetics and against type.)... Redmayne and Keaton were truly safe.
I'm thinking this years Best Actress race could be a repeat of 2014's Best Actor race. However you cut it, there will be one or two "How could they snub this performance?" but when you look at the lineup and consider the Academy's preferences for mimicry/historical figures, it's hard to make room... In the comparison, only Emma Stone is truly safe this year. But Portman's work is just up AMPAS's alley and Amy Adams is a favorite reaching overdue status in a film that's likely going to get a big nomination haul.
Graham: Since Jake Gyllenhaal was better than all five who made it, his nomination would already be an improvement :). I'm not a big fan of Cumberbatch, but his nomination was guaranteed. Bradley Cooper, who probably stole Jake's nomination, is ok, I'll admit, but my fifth out of five. But My solution? Steve Carrell should have been nominated in Supporting where he belonged (and where he was nominated by BAFTA) and where he should have won. And the elimination of Robert Duvall provides the perfect solution. As far as I'm concerned Channing Tatum was the Lead in Foxcatcher, and Ruffalo and Carrell were Supporting. Duvall's nomination was a disgrace over Josh Brolin (Inherent Vice) or Zach Galifianakis (Birdman), and quite a few others.
Off topic, but Graham--are you a fellow AMC fan perchance?
When it comes to make-up noms/wins, I also think Crowe's win for "Gladiator" may have been a make-up for losing for "The Insider" the year before (not that anyone could really stop Spacey that year, but still).
Volvagia - Thanks. Yeah, that would definitely clear up the Ben Button mystery:) I haven't seen Foxcatcher and I don't remember Depp's performance at all (which says something about the quality, perhaps).
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