The Final Predictions Begin!

I've updated the Picture, Director, Screenplays, Actor and Supporting Actress charts with final predictions. Though many questions remain we must make the hard calls with nominations only a week away!

Best Picture & Best Director
The Best Picture race will literally never be "locked up" again so long as Oscar sticks with its "5 to 10" balloting math. That shifting number of Best Pictures means that you just never know. I want to say 8 again this year but what if its 5,6,7,9, or gulp 10. The big question mark, at least for this pundit, is Nocturnal Animals. Given that it's the movie that won't go away in precursor season with great showings at the Globes and BAFTA and significant buzz in Los Angeles despite its polarizing nature and its relatively low box office take (lower than ALL the other still buzzing pictures with the exception of Loving). The thing is you can't vote AGAINST something. You can only vote for it, so we're predicting Tom Ford in Best Director. 

Leading Actor
Arguable the most settled of the Oscar acting races with Casey Affleck, Denzel Washington, Andrew Garfield, Viggo Mortensen, and Ryan Gosling all steady players for months. At this point it would be a minor surprise to see one of the ousted. Support for their rivals seems to be far too diffuse.

Supporting Actress
The other "settled" acting race though you can definitely make arguments about one of two women spoiling the party:  Greta Gerwig who is brilliant in 20th Century Women and who has definitely earned her place at Hollywood's most prestigious tables after years of fine work, or Janelle Monae, who proves herself a total natural in Hidden Figures with a bright film career ahead of her. Supporting Actress is a friendly category to double nominees which means if there's a major shake-up it could be both Octavia and Janelle in the mix.

With Captain Fantastic holding strong for Viggo and with its SAG nomination, we're betting the Screenplay shows up, too.

Original Screenplay & Adapted Screenplay
The big question in Adapted might be whether Fences has enough goodwill to earn August Wilson a posthumous nomination, or if naysayers who believe its too "stagey" have made it a Viola & Denzel only party. My guess is that if Tom Ford doesn't show up in Director he shows up here instead and steals that slot away from the late theatrical giant.

In Original Screenplay with three films looking unstoppable for nominations (Manchester, Hell or, La La), one looking like a very typical "of course it nabbed #1 votes!" critical darling style nominee (The Lobster), there's presumably only one spot left and SO many strong screenplays fighting for it: Captain Fantastic, 20th Century Women, Zootopia, Toni Erdmann, Jackie. 

Team Experience: Golden Globe Snubs & "WTF?"s

We polled Team Experience on the Golden Globe nominations this morning. Here is part one in which we dispense  quick thoughts about the most head scratching nominations and the 'I know they di't' dismissals (I know we're not supposed to call them snubs anymore but the word is such convenient shorthand). 

WHAT'S THE SNUB THAT MAKES YOU THE CRAZIEST?

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With Six You Get Linkroll

Towleroad Florence Henderson, "Mrs Brady" herself, dies at 82
Letterboxd "movies where jessica chastain gets fed up with the useless men around her so she decides to save the world herself"
EW Martin Scorsese's Silence to get world premiere at The Vatican
Medium "a letter to Tom Ford from a fat moviegoer" regarding Nocturnal Animals
Coco Hits NY finds Moana distractingly relevant to the current political situation
Elle Magazine all the different women who've played Jackie Kennedy (amazing, really)
The New Yorker the evolution of Pedro Almodóvar

oops that was seven links 

Exit Video
Doctor Strange as 8 bit game

They only do this for action and genre flicks since they're a natural fit but wouldn't it be satirical fun to do it for an unexpected non-teen boy favorite like say... Carol or The Hours?

Podcast: 'Nocturnal Elle's Halftime Walk'

We're back to weekly podcasts! This week Nick, Joe, and Nathaniel discuss the latest films from Tom Ford, Ang Lee, and Paul Verhoeven, only one of which we can recommend.

Index (42 minutes)
00:01-17:22 Ang Lee's awkward Billy Lynn's Long Halftime Walk starring Joe Alwyn and Garret Hedlund

17:23-29:45 Tom Ford's revolting Nocturnal Animals. We don't understand the initial acclaim at all

29:46-42:00 Paul Verhoeven and Isabelle Huppert's provocative collaboration Elle, France's Oscar submission (mild spoilers)

You can listen to the podcast here at the bottom of the post or download from iTunes. Continue the conversations in the comments.

Nocturnal Elle's Halftime Walk

America, The Damned Thing

by Jason Adams

Nocturnal Animals is a strange little beast. I find myself tempted to call it the "Gay Straw Dogs" (gay in spirit if not in character) but that's not quite right - it is very much its own fascinating thing; it is very much the work of one man, one artist, grappling with his own art and the idea of himself as an Artist. And our idea in turn of him as an Artist. So much so that there's a discussion of Art and the Artist both framed by the film's structure - that of a "reality" where Amy Adams is reading a book and then a "fiction" inside the book itself - and by the film itself; that is to say that two characters actually sit down and have a conversation about what it means to be an Artist, to be critiqued, and to put one's self out into the world for that sort of judgement, bare-assed and vulnerable.

I think the most telling bits in the film comes early...

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