Early Bird Oscar Predix Nearly Finished !

Working as fast as I can through the first wave of Oscar charts. I realize 'fast as I can' this year is snail-paced but you have to agree that this year has been a slow-starter anyway. Not that things haven't started now. Cannes is in full swing and in addition to the awards speculation for the Palme D'Or, Cannes prompts film sales, too, and thus distributor shuffling. Stephen Frears Philomena (currently in post) was picked up by the Weinstein Company and given that they had a full slate already -- especially for Best Actress since they're also representing Streep & Kidman in August and Grace -- it must have been more than Judi Dench that prompted the high priced sale. I've added it to the previously completed charts because it's just one of those projects that felt right to me when I first heard about it. Isn't it about time for Stephen Frears to get his mojo back? I've added that new contender to the prediction charts.

But for now, let's talk about the visual and aural categories. What follows is not my predictions but just a few thoughts to kick off a conversation. You can see predictions on the charts here (for visuals) and here (for sound) 

Cinematography
It may finally be Emmanuel Lubezki's year. The truly great cinematographer has always been overshadowed by non-discriminatory love for competing films in his nominated years -- in fact he's one of the very rare frequent below the title nominees that does not require any degree of Best Picture heat to be in the conversation. In fact only 20% of his nominations come from Best Picture nominated films. So you know they really love his work and it's not just coattails from the movies. This year he has the now-important advantage (sigh) of working with a ton of visual effects with his frequent collaborator Alfonso Cuarón's Gravity. For reasons that are still unclear to me Oscar voters now view Cinematography as an extension of the Visual Effects category; in the last four years the winners of both categories have been the exact same film. This is a terrible trend since cinematography is an art that's been producing myriad breathtaking works long before anybody had ever heard of CGI. Still... if this is what it takes to finally get Lubezki the Oscar... [more]

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Link City: Blogs To Click For

Coming Soon first look at Josh Brolin in Sin City: A Dame To Kill For
Low Resolution Joe Reid returns to his very neglected blog to make a movie trailer for his own awards
The Hollywood Reporter spends time with Emmanuelle Riva who might become the oldest acting Oscar winner in history
Slate discusses the morbid finale of Downton Abbey Season 3. Is it the cruelest show on television?

Pajiba five things you may not have known about Christoph Waltz. Fun - love the Haneke bit.
In Contention Christoph Waltz in Djesus Uncrossed on SNL
Empire Sam Mendes may return for Bond 24. That's crazy if you ask me. How the hell will he top Skyfall? Better to walk away with afterglow.
Cinema Blend Lincoln finally ends slavery.... in Mississippi. WTH?
MNPP Gael García Bernal two (sexy) times
Encore's World the whole collection of "Motifs" articles. This one is on Parents & Children in '12 cinema featuring Brave, Amour, Looper and Moonrise Kingdom
The Film Doctor's one sentence review of A Good Day To Die Hard. One very long (true) sentence. 

Greg P Russell working on SkyfallFinally... some last minute awardage. The Writers Guild (WGA) continued Argo's dominance at the guilds... which probably means no Oscar for Tony Kushner's Lincoln. I thank 2012 emphatically for being so hard to predict for so much longer than usual even though now it's snorezzzville again going into Oscar night. At least until earlier this month. Now it's snorezzzville with only Argo deemed worthy of hardware. Which is why I've fallen off the reporting wagon... well that and the lack of FYC ads this year ;) Argo and Silver Linings Playbook took the ACE awards for editing. I say near-sweep because Argo hasn't won everything. It lost the Art Directors Guild prize to Anna Karenina and Sound prizes have also eluded it. Life of Pi was a double winner for the Sound Editors (MPSE) with Wreck-It Ralph and Les Misérables picking up their other trophies... but the Cinema Audio Society felt somewhat differently handing Brave and Les Miz its trophies. All of which is very bad news for perennial sound mixing nominee Greg P. Russell who is up for Skyfall this year... will he really lose again on his 16th nomination! Sixteenth! Tomorrow one more guild announces: the Costume Designers Guild.

10 Days 'til Oscar: Score, Song, & Sound

We're in the final crunch now. Oscar voters have to make their final decisions by Tuesday February 19th (with the winners announced Sunday February 24th) so I'm throwing up my own nominees (which I like to announce before the Oscar nominations even. Oy) so you can see my film bitch award picks for the best in the various aural categories here. But while we're on the subject of sound, a film craft I always vow to learn more about and then forget to educate myself, let's make some early Oscar predictions.

BEST SCORE
Naturally I prefer my nominees to Oscars. Unlike many pundits, I knew that the Beasts of the Southern Wild score didn't have a prayer since Oscar's music branch is notoriously exclusive. In addition to their resistance to new composers they also don't really cotton to directors muscling in on their territory, so step away from the sheet music Benh Zeitlin, Benh Zeitlin. (Even an Oscar God as Revered as Clint Eastwood hasn't been able to do it.) Nevertheless Oscar voters and I do have a bit of overlap here as we all swooned for Dario Marianelli's work on Anna Karenina and Mychael Danna's evocative score for Life of Pi. I'd be pleased if either of them won the category. As for the other nominees, I never quite understand the mandatory nature of John Williams nominations. He's certainly created some classic scores over the years but I swear if he just whistled a few bars on a soundtrack he'd be nominated. I also still don't get the Argo score being nominated since Desplat wrote about five film scores this year and they're ALL better than his decent but surprisingly generic work on Ben Affleck's well regarded thriller. A nomination for Zero Dark Thirty would've been so preferrable.

Should Win: Dario Marianelli, Anna Karenina
Will Win: Mychael Danna, Life of Pi. (Even though the music branch is loathe to welcome new blood once they do, they don't tend to have issues with them actually winning the gold.)
Possible Spoiler: Despite Williams' endless nominations, Oscar voters don't seem to be sentimental about giving him a final (and sixth) statue, so I'm guessing Danna's only potential loss comes from Argo-Mania. Alexandre Desplate still hasn't won an Oscar which is starting to seem crazy. 

SONG
Though Oscar and I don't have much overlap -- look, I know Joyful Noise is a crap movie but Dolly Parton writes beautiful movie songs and still doesn't have an Oscar --  I really love the Oscar nominees anyway. All of 'em! It was a good year for original movie songs. I'm looking forward to the performances (should we get them... and it seems like we will).

007 Skyfall - Opening Credits (Best Quality Yet) from Gunnar Lien on Vimeo.

Should Win: Skyfall
Will Win: Skyfall (the night's biggest lock?)
Possible Spoiler: Skyfall... in case they decide to give Adele two Oscars just to see if she pisses herself laughing. 

SOUND EDITING & SOUND MIXING
Oscar likes exceptionally loud movies in the sound categories from the following genres: sci-fi, war, musicals. Which is why you rarely see fragile sounding haunted dramas like, say, The Deep Blue Sea, or fascinating soundscapes like Cosmopolis or artful indies like Beasts of the Southern Wild in the mix. So the weirdest nominee from their choices might be Lincoln which is not particularly loud or showy in terms of sound. I think they missed the boat in ignoring Prometheus in both sound categories this year... but the studio didn't really campaign so there's that. The sound categories can be difficult to predict since who knows what actors make of "sound", you know? And they make up the biggest voting block for winners. Greg P. Russell has been nominated 16 times without winning and he's up again for Sound Mixing on Skyfall. If enough voters become aware of his Oscarless plight, I can't see him losing for such a well loved widely seen film. But are they aware?

watery films are often popular in sound categories

Should Win (Mixing/Editing): abstain... I'm still thinking about this
Will Win (Mixing/Editing): Skyfall & Life of Pi... wild guesswork. They do sometimes split those prizes... and these two films might be in tough battle after tough battle for the entire first half of the ceremony in the craft categories.
Possible Spoiler (Mixing/Editing): Les Misérables & Skyfall

What are you rooting for soundwise with Oscar and what do you think of the film bitch award nominees? 

Thank God It's Link Day

In Contention talks to Oscar nominated sound designer Paul N.J. Ottoson on Zero Dark Thirty 
Film.com Joe Reid does the research we wanted done on most winningest acting lineups of all time -- but, yes, Supporting Actor 2012 is the only ALL winners acting lineup at nomination time.
We Are Movie Geeks collects all the new official Oscar posters and Oscar promos so click on over if you wanna fill up on Seth MacFarlane.

Heat Vision Christopher Nolan in talks to direct Interstellar. The internet's mind is blown because it's a) Nolan and b) sci-fi and c) a & b together and d) because it's supposedly a surprise... but since Jonathan Nolan wrote it I can't figure how the "d" is true. What did I miss?
National Post contemplates Bradley Cooper's hair, awards schmoozing amd career highs in Palm Springs 

Worthy Long Read
New York Times Magazine "Here is what happens when you cast Lindsay Lohan in your movie" an epic piece on Paul Schrader and the making of Canyons 

Today's Funny
Have you seen College Humor's "accurate movie titles" Best Picture edition. It's funny. Argo and Amour are the ones that made me lol. 

see them all 

Liz & Link

Film.com Our friend Joe Reid debuts his Oscar column and explains why Oscars are good for us
Winnipeg Free Press interviews Kim Morgan on her Marilyn Monroe essay for Playboy
Huffington Post will Les Misérables virgins enjoy the film? Mike Ryan did.
Actors & Crew the best iPhone apps for filmmaking 
Natasha VC Feel all your feelings about James Spader (now appearing in Lincoln)
NY Times extensive audio & text piece on the sound design of Killing Me Softly. I love educational web goodies

The Atlantic worries that the conversion to digital will cost us deeply when it comes to the classics. Some of them may never look or sound the way they were intended to again. (With commentary from the brilliant editor Thelma Schoonmaker)
In Contention Can Beasts of the Southern Wild return to the Oscar fray? 
In Contention The "Oscar Bait" got good
Coming Soon photos from the set of R.I.P.D. with Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds. They don't look much like zombie police officers to me?
Movieline Did you know that Steven Spielberg was once turned down when he asked to direct James Bond!?
The Carpet Bagger is back and looking at how the new Oscar schedule may change release dates and campaign strategies 

Linds & Tricks
Gawker the wordless acting of Lindsay Lohan in Liz & Dick
TFE Mean Girls predicted the future! 
PopWatch the best lines from Liz & Dick 
Huffington Post 100 Twitter Reactions... their layout is really messy/annoying but if you scroll down the post title can be found in a slide show that looks like an ad... but it's actually the content of the post after a long intro. 

And no... I haven't yet watched Liz & Dick. I know. I didn't have the energy, wasn't in the right mood to see Liz defiled (easily among the top five best celebrities who ever lived -- in multiple senses of "best") and maybe you had to be there at the online viewing internet party anyway!