For today's Oscar volley, Lynn Lee and Glenn Dunks discuss the Best Actor race.
LYNN: Glenn, it’s been a while since I’ve felt this strongly about the Best Actor race, so I’ll just lay my cards on the table: I really, really want both Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) to be nominated, would love Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers) to join them – though I think he’s a long shot – and really DON’T want Leonardo DiCaprio to get in for Killers of the Flower Moon.
It’s extra personal for me because I saw American Fiction, All of Us Strangers, and The Holdovers back to back at the Middleburg Film Festival earlier this year and loved all of them. More to the point, while all three films have their flaws, each one worked like gangbusters largely because of the fantastic acting – especially the outstanding male lead performance...
These men tie their films all together both narratively and emotionally. Giamatti and Wright, in particular, have to balance the comically prickly, off-putting aspects of their protagonists with their inner humanity and vulnerability, and both do a masterful job.
GLENN: Welcome back, Lynn. It’s amazing how these categories can all start falling into place so quickly, isn’t it? It’s barely the end of the year, and it feels like there are four names looking extremely solid for nominations (Cooper, Giamatti, Murphy and Wright).
Of those, I will be more than happy for the latter two to finally receive their first nominations after great careers that feel as is they are culminating in a way that is almost poetic. As a swing-voter of sorts on Alexander Payne, I was so relieved to find myself in love with The Holdovers. And it seems inevitable that Cooper will nominated as he seems incredibly popular with the actors, and he pushed himself here in ways the branch will no doubt appreciate even if the movie itself may be pulling a Mank with more general audiences to be perceived as something of an academic achievement that’s hard to love or even embrace.
LYNN: I should explain about Leo. A big part of why Killers of the Flower Moon doesn’t work for me is DiCaprio, who never convinces me for a minute that his dumb shit of an anti-hero could win the heart of Lily Gladstone’s Mollie. Somehow he does and then spends the rest of the movie trying to convey moral conflict by looking perpetually constipated. For me, tortured Leo is tedious Leo (I didn’t care for him in The Revenant, either). Unfortunately, I fear he’s going to take a slot from one of my three faves – most likely Scott, though I’m not sure Wright is safe, either. If DiCaprio’s in and the never-nominated Wright is out, I’m going to be seriously ticked off.
What about you? Any particular no-thank-yous?
GLENN: I find myself conflicted for the final slot. On one hand, DiCaprio is in one of my top three films of the year—but on the other hand, there is a solid 45-minute stretch there where he is actively bad and giving what appears to be a Sling Blade impersonation.
As to the alternatives Colman Domingo is very good in the very bad Rustin. I would not begrudge him the nomination at all, but I just wish the movie wasn’t so clumsy and poorly made. I know you consider Andrew Scott a long shot, but right now I’m sending out all of my good vibes that he sneaks in for All of Us Strangers. I suspect BAFTA will be receptive and the European vote has been important lately in helping score nominations for the likes of Bill Nighy, Jonathan Pryce, and presumably Charlotte Rampling for Andrew Haigh’s 45 Years.
Or am I misreading things and perhaps that contingent will swing for Barry Keoghan? What surprises do you see room for on ballots?
LYNN: While I haven’t yet seen Rustin, I gotta say I’d take Domingo over DiCaprio for that fifth slot in a heartbeat, just based on the quality of his previous work and how much I dislike DiCaprio in Killers.
And I hope not re: Keoghan. He’s good, especially in the first half of Saltburn, but ultimately can’t overcome the silliness of the writing. The Academy’s definitely taken notice of him, though, so he does arguably have at least as strong a chance as Scott.
Other possible surprises include Zac Efron stretching his range in The Iron Claw (though how is that film landing?) and maybe Teo Yoo, who’s excellent in Past Lives. You would never guess he’s a born and raised German actor who’s completely fluent in English, so perfectly does he capture the awkward reserve of a traditional Korean man reaching out tentatively to the literal girl who got away. He’s an even longer shot than Scott, but if Past Lives has coattails – which it could, given how well it’s been doing so far in awards season – he’s not completely out of the running.
GLENN: While we’re on longer shots let’s add Franz Rogowski for Passages who should have been in contention for Great Freedom.
LYNN: I also neglected, in mentioning Middleburg, another film I saw there with a lovely male lead performance: Wim Wenders’ Perfect Days, which netted Koji Yakusho the Best Actor award at Cannes. The Academy’s changing composition in recent years has brought welcome recognition of foreign language films outside of the International Feature category. However, it continues to be resistant to Asian actors, and the film hasn’t really been in the awards conversation, despite getting shortlisted for International Feature.
GLENN: Oh gosh, Koji Yakusho! What a world that would be.
I want to pivot to narratives though, because we all saw how important that can be just this past year and I’m struggling to really see one forming. Like him or not, Brendan Fraser was elevated last season partly because of the movie he was in but also partly because of the story behind him. Giamatti, Domingo, Wright and Scott are all well-liked actors who I can’t quite envision the Academy being in a hurry to reward (it’s so hard to tell with Giamatti too given he’s been on TV so much lately). Meanwhile, Cillian Murphy’s narrative is that of a great actor in the right part. But will that sway anybody that this is his time, so to speak?
Which I guess leaves Bradley Cooper. But he is in a film that maybe isn’t quite hitting the way that would be needed to secure a win. He at least has the biopic angle on his side, the factor that helped lose him the Oscar he should’ve won for A Star is Born. Will his going full-Gaga on the press circuit, talking about his hours in the make-up chair, the learning to conduct, the refusal to sit in a chair, help him where the film is maybe falling flat with some?
LYNN: I also think Cooper has the winning narrative here. Even if Maestro leaves you cold, he looks great, he sounds great, and everyone knows he worked his tail off – spending six years of his life studying Lenny’s cadences and conducting style and building such an intimacy with the Bernstein kids you can tell they adore him. Coming after A Star is Born and three previous acting nominations, he’s ripe for the Academy’s final blessing.
And you know what, I’m good with that. I quite liked Maestro, recognizing I’m the target (niche) audience for its subject matter, and Cooper delivers a fine performance underneath the impressive makeup job and painstaking recreations of signature moments of Bernstein’s career. I’m thinking of the scene when his daughter confronts him about the rumors she’s been hearing about his sexuality and he lies to her face. There’s a subtle but unmistakable flicker of pain in his eyes as she expresses relief, and it’s one of the saddest moments in a film that has no shortage of those.
GLENN: Yes, if Jessica Chastain can win for The Eyes of Tammy Faye then surely Bradley Cooper can win for Maestro.
LYNN: The rest of the contenders, as you note, all have a similar profile: steady, well-respected careers, under-recognized as far as movie awards go. That should be enough to get them nominated – again, allowing for the uncertainty of that fifth spot – but the nomination will be the reward. The only one I could see pulling an actual upset victory over Cooper is Giamatti; he really is that good in The Holdovers.
Murphy has been picking up a ton of critics awards, which has pleasantly surprised me; like you, though, I don’t think the Academy will see it as his time. Is it prediction time? No real surprises with mine.
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
- Colman Domingo – Rustin
I’m splitting the difference between optimism (no Leo!) and realism (no Scott) for the fifth slot. You?
GLENN: As for my predictions, I’m going to predict that the sheer quality of Rustin may work against Domingo just enough to let a (however realistic or not) Brit-surged Andrew Scott to sneak in.
- Bradley Cooper – Maestro
- Paul Giamatti – The Holdovers
- Cillian Murphy – Oppenheimer
- Andrew Scott – All of Us Strangers
- Jeffrey Wright – American Fiction
Your turn readers. Who do you think is making Best Actor and who are you rooting for or against?
RELATED
- Other Oscar Volleys
Original Screenplay, Makeup, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Adapted Screenplay, Original Song, International Film, Supporting Actress & Best Actress - Nathaniel’s Oscar Charts - all freshly updated today!
- Team Experience Predictions