Oscar Volley: Which Foreign Films Will Voters Choose for Best International Feature?

Before we get the shortlist on Thursday, here’s today’s volley, on Best International Feature, from Elisa Giudici and Abe Friedtanzer...

THE ZONE OF INTEREST feels like a lock in this race.

ABE: Hi Elisa! I'm excited to talk about one of my favorite categories, Best International Feature! This year we have 88 submissions from all around the world. While I'm still hoping to catch more in the next few weeks, I think I've managed to track down a good number of the top contenders. Interestingly, this year's likely frontrunner is from a country that rarely gets noticed, in part because most of its films simply aren't eligible. That would be the United Kingdom, which has quite an intense feature in The Zone of Interest, a haunting portrait of the commandant of Auschwitz and his family, who live right next to the infamous concentration camp but live quite the serene life...

I think that's the surest bet. Next up would have been Anatomy of a Fall, also starring Sandra Hüller, and while that may end up scoring a Best Picture nomination, France opted instead to submit The Taste of Things, starring Oscar winner Juliette Binoche. I don't think that tasty feast is a lock for a nomination, but it's likely to make the shortlist. What are some of the other top contenders you're anticipating? 

ELISA: For sure, my top pick category as well! It's basically the Eurovision of cinematic prizes – everyone picks their movie, and then it's all-out war. This year, the analogy is even more spot-on, given that the competition looks even more Europe-centric than usual. It's like countries vying for the top spot, but with movies, and I'm here for it!

Ever since Cannes, Glazer's film seemed not just a front-runner but almost a guaranteed winner. I even heard from someone in the industry that A24 thought it could nab seven nominations – that's quite the confidence! So, I think it's locked, but there are some strong contenders rising up.

Did France make a mistake by submitting THE TASTE OF THINGS instead of ANATOMY OF A FALL?

Don't sleep on the French submission just because of the controversy around the movie choice. The Taste of Things is a superb film, different from Anatomy of a Fall but maybe even closer to the Academy's traditional tastes. Political issues aside, it's a tough call between the two, and the controversy might even benefit Triet's movie in the bigger category – good for both! Finland's Fallen Leaves is another strong contender on the tender side…maybe one can rule out the other?

Then there are films settled far from Europe but still European entries, and the reverse too: German director Wim Wender's Perfect Days in Japan and Spain's Society of the Snow set in Chile. Both are really good and quite palatable for general audiences. The first plays on the perception of Japanese culture as super efficient yet still connected to the human factor, with a stellar performance from the protagonist already praised in Cannes. The second is a tour de force in a controversial real story, told from a sympathetic point of view, rejecting the morbidity some previous adaptations lingered in while not censoring the harsher parts. I think it could be this year's little Nothing New From the Western Front, eyeing some technical nominations.

Germany's The Teachers' Lounge is considered a strong contender, although I haven't seen it yet. Have you? Do you think this year's ballot could be all European? It's shaping up to be quite the continental showdown!

Germany's THE TEACHERS' LOUNGE is an impressive submission.

ABE: I did see The Teachers' Lounge recently and was very impressed - I think it will make the shortlist for sure. And Fallen Leaves got a big boost from its unexpected Golden Globe nomination for star Alma Pöysti, though we know that some Globe-honored films, like In the Fade, don't translate to the Oscar list.

I want to mention a film I hope will make the list but I'm not entirely confident, and that's Shayda. It's Australia's submission and features the star of a shortlisted Danish submission from last year, Holy Spider. Zar Amir Ebrahiim is absolutely terrific, and the film has been winning raves since it debuted at Sundance last year. I just hope it will go far and continue to net attention.

On the note of Denmark, regular International Feature star Mads Mikkelsen is quite good in The Promised Land, which I fully expect to show up on the shortlist. It's somewhat similar to - but not nearly as dark as - another entry this year, The Settlers, from Chile. That's another film that's been making the festival circuit and which I worry has been underseen.

If Europe doesn't dominate, I think Concrete Utopia has a good chance of getting nominated, though I worry that Parasite will inexplicably remain the only South Korean film ever nominated in this category after the surprising snub of Decision to Leave last year. 

THE PROMISED LAND could benefit from the Academy's Danish obsession.

I have a few hopefuls that I don't expect to get nominated or shortlisted but would love to see considered. Before we get there, are we missing any other major contenders? 

ELISA: Back in early September, hanging out in Venice, I was totally sold on The Promised Land being the big shot for an Oscar nod. But, hey, maybe I was a tad too sure of myself? Denmark's no slouch, though, with its solid history of nominations, even if it's not stealing the show.

We might've overlooked the Italian entry, Io capitano. I mean, seeing it in the final five at the Golden Globes was a genuine jaw-dropper. So, who knows, maybe it could squeeze into the longlist? It might not be Garrone's magnum opus, but it throws in some magical realism and a legit African viewpoint into a gritty migration tale—guaranteed drama. 

If the competition wasn't so cutthroat, I'd easily bet on it for the top five. Still, it would be a real win for this flick to snag a spot. Hitting the Golden Globes list and getting a shout-out in Venice, I'm thinking it deserves a longlist nod, but honestly, I'd be pretty darn surprised.

Now, onto the underdogs we're rooting for in this convo. Let's shine a light on City of Wind from Mongolia—a cool coming-of-age story about a young Shaman teenager. Directed by a woman who seems to have more tricks up her sleeve than her debut lets on. Total hidden gem! 

Mongolia's CITY OF WIND is a hidden gem.

ABE: I haven’t had a chance to see that one. The two that I wish had more of a shot are also both directed by women! Slow from Lithuania and Seven Blessings from Israel are both extraordinary stories of complicated relationships. Slow looks at a couple developing feelings for each other while one of them is asexual, and Seven Blessings navigates the intense dynamics of a group of adult siblings and their mother. I’d love to see either one make a surprise showing on the shortlist.

What are your 15 predicted films to make the shortlist?

ELISA: Predicting the longlist feels like navigating a field of numerous strong contenders, making it more about ruling titles out than confidently placing them in. However, I'm up for the challenge of forecasting both the long and shortlists.

Here's my breakdown of the longlist into sure bets and titles I think will likely make it but aren't guaranteed.

Sure Bets:

• THE ZONE OF INTEREST, United Kingdom
• THE TASTE OF THINGS, France
• FALLEN LEAVES, Finland
• THE TEACHERS' LOUNGE, Germany

Strong Contenders:

• SOCIETY OF THE SNOW, Spain
• FOUR DAUGHTERS, Tunisia - This one, emerging as a sleeper hit from Cannes, could offer diversity with a Nothern African submission, a female-focused narrative, and the potential to launch the career of a still not widely known female director.
• PERFECT DAYS, Japan
• THE PROMISED LAND, Denmark
• IO CAPITANO, Italy
• GODLAND, Iceland — Despite being an older movie, its recurrent appearance in year-end best-of lists suggests it should not be overlooked.

Possible Entries:

• 20 DAYS IN MARIUPOL, Ukraine
• THE SETTLERS, Chile
• TÓTEM, Mexico
• SHAYDA, Australia
• DO NOT EXPECT TOO MUCH FROM THE END OF THE WORLD, Romania - Despite not having seen it, the positive buzz surrounding this film makes it a strong contender for the long list.

Now, let's tackle the challenging part and attempt to guess the final ballot if you're up for it!

FOUR DAUGHTERS could be the second Kaouther Ben Hania film to score a nomination.

ABE: Here’s my predicted shortlist, which isn’t that different from yours, in order of likelihood: 

1. THE ZONE OF INTEREST, United Kingdom
2. SOCIETY OF THE SNOW, Spain
3. THE TASTE OF THINGS, France
4. FALLEN LEAVES, Finland
5. THE TEACHERS' LOUNGE, Germany
6. THE PROMISED LAND, Denmark
7. IO CAPITANO, Italy
8. PERFECT DAYS, Japan
9. FOUR DAUGHTERS, Tunisia
10. TÓTEM, Mexico
11. SHAYDA, Australia
12. THE SETLLERS, Chile
13. ABOUT DRY GRASSES, Turkey
14. CONCRETE UTOPIA, South Korea
15. THE MONK AND THE GUN, Bhutan

My predicted nominees:

1. THE ZONE OF INTEREST, United Kingdom
2. SOCIETY OF THE SNOW, Spain
3. FALLEN LEAVES, Finland
4. FOUR DAUGHTERS, Tunisia
5. SHAYDA, Australia 

ELISA: I would go with the same final five but with Japan in, Australia out. Readers, what films are we overestimating or underestimating?

RELATED READING:

• Other Oscar Volleys – Makeup, Editing, Production Design, Costumes, Adapted Screenplay & Original Song
• Nathaniel’s Oscar Charts
• Team Experience Predictions – From Picture to Screenplay

Comments

[Arnaud Trouvé]

Great write-up ! I would love to see a mention for The Philippines' entry : "The Missing". It's an honest exploration of trauma, with a clever use of animation. Juan Carlos praised it on this site, and rightly so.

[Gallavich]

This is my favorite category, but is the one in which usually when it comes the shortlist there's always a big and inexplicable disappointment. 4 months, 3 weeks and 2 days, Gomorrah, BPM. I wouldn't be surprised to not find a strong horse as The zone of interest in their top 9.

France made a smart move. With the boost of the Palme d'or I think that they suspected that Anatomy of a fall would have been in ballot for categories as picture, director, actress and others. So they decided to go with another movie for best international picture.

[Frank Zappa]

...Nothing New From the Western Front...

;-)

[Jason Cooper]

Crossing my fingers for Godland. It's thus far my favorite film of 2023.