Team Experience Oscar Predictions - Post 1 - Initial Thoughts
Sunday, December 3, 2023 at 2:00PM
by Christopher James
Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon are obvious frontrunners, but who is the leader among The Film Experience writers as of now?
With the Gotham Awards and New York Film Critics Awards having announced their winners, the Oscars race is officially afoot! We have surveyed The Film Experience writers and asked them to make predictions in the main eight categories - Picture, Directing, Actress, Actor, Supporting Actress, Supporting Actor, Adapted Screenplay and Original Screenplay. Every other week, we will check in with the team to see who has risen or fallen in the rankings.
Martin Scorsese’s epic drama, Killers of the Flower Moon, had the strongest showing of the week, awards-wise. It took home Best Picture at the New York Film Critics Awards and stars Lily Gladstone and Robert De Niro had the most high profile moments of the Gotham Awards. Does that mean it is out in front, or does Oppenheimer still have the distinction of frontrunner status? See what the Film Experience Team thinks after the jump...
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Best Picture Predictions
Right now it is the battle of the three hour plus epics, with Christopher Nolan’s Oppenheimer as the current frontrunner. Six out of nine writers have placed it in the number one slot of their Oscar predictions, while two others put Scorsese’s Killers of the Flower Moon up top.
If we were still in a world of five nominees, the team seems pretty clear on which movies would make the cut. All writers have predicted a Best Picture nomination for Barbie, Poor Things and The Holdovers, with a majority of them putting each of those films in their top 5. It’s too early for anything to be a sure thing, but those films should feel pretty comfortable in their place in the race right now.
The remaining five slots could go any which way. Some movies like Cannes Palme d’Or winner Anatomy of a Fall and Gotham Awards winner Past Lives are predicted by nearly all writers, but lower in the field of 10. Meanwhile, the most divisive movie of the bunch seems to be Bradley Cooper’s Maestro. The Netflix biopic of Leonard Bernstein sits atop Ben Miller’s prediction, but is missing from two of nine writers’ predictions. Similarly, our editor Nathaniel Rogers is bullish on American Fiction, but not all writers share that confidence.
At this moment, The Color Purple rounds out the field of 10, but its Christmas release will likely determine whether it rises or falls in the predictions. Just outside, films large and small vie to break into the Best Picture mix, such as The Zone of Interest, Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse and Air.
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Best Director Predictions
Our two fearless auteurs also battle it out for the Best Director award. Nolan was at the top of the predictions for six writers, while the remaining three predicted Scorsese. No one else is unanimously predicted for Best Director, though Yorgos Lanthimos is comfortably in third place in this race.
The last two spaces could go to a whole slew of people. Greta Gerwig could earn her second directing nomination for Barbie, making her only the second woman to earn multiple directing nominations (after Jane Campion). After getting snubbed for directing A Star is Born, Bradley Cooper hopes to cash in an Oscar IOU with Maestro. Other directors looking for their first Oscar nominations include Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest), Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) and Blitz Bazawule (The Color Purple). It’s also possible that the Academy could reward an old favorite, giving Alexander Payne (The Holdovers) his fourth Directing nomination.
Click to get expanded view.Best Actress Predictions
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Emma Stone could win her second Best Actress Oscar for her role in Poor Things. She’s mentioned in all writers’ predictions, taking the top spot at six out of nine of them. Her strongest challenger is Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon, who is also cited on everyone’s predictions. The rest of the category is a bit fuzzy. Carey Mulligan (Maestro) and Sandra Huller (Anatomy of a Fall) appear to be in third and fourth place, respectively. Yet, both of them are predicted to be snubbed by some.
So who rounds out the category? Baby Clyde is confident enough in Fantasia Barrino that they put her in position number one for The Color Purple. Other actresses vying for that final spot include Margot Robbie (Barbie), Greta Lee (Past Lives) and Teyana Taylor (A Thousand and One).
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Best Actor Predictions
While Best Actress has many contenders with few sure things, Best Actor feels a lot more secure. Bradley Cooper (Maestro) and Cilian Murphy (Oppenheimer) are in a close fight for the win, while Paul Giamatti (The Holdovers) and Jeffrey Wright (American Fiction) are securely in third and fourth place. The race for fifth place seems to only be between a few people. Colman Domingo hopes his showy role in Rustin can earn him his first Oscar nomination, while Leonardo DiCaprio looks to ride Killers of the Flower Moon enthusiasm to his seventh nomination. Eric Blume is sticking his neck out for Andrew Scott to contend for Andrew Haigh’s All of Us Strangers.
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Best Supporting Actress Predictions
Best Supporting Actress has the greatest number of contenders among the major awards (other than the 10-slot-wide Best Picture). It’s exciting to see a race that can go so many places.
The only two who should feel secure and safe are Danielle Brooks (The Color Purple) and Da’Vine Joy Randolph (The Holdovers). Both made everyone’s predictions and were separated by only one point for the win. Solidly in third place is Emily Blunt, who is taking advantage of Oppenheimer’s early release to carve a place for herself in this category.
From there, things get much murkier. Taraji P. Henson hopes that history repeats itself with two actresses from The Color Purple making it into Best Supporting Actress. From there, we have four Oscar winners hoping to represent their films - Jodie Foster (Nyad), Penelope Cruz (Ferrari), Julianne Moore (May December) and Viola Davis (Air). Name recognition and “best in show” accolades could propel them to a nomination, but there are other choices nipping at their toes. Rosamund Pike steals scenes as a vapid Mom in Saltburn. Meanwhile, if Sandra Huller fever takes over, she could potentially earn nominations in Best Actress and Best Supporting Actress. Finally, if Barbie overperforms for nominations, there’s a world in which America Ferrera nabs a coattails nomination.
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Best Supporting Actor Predictions
Barbenheimer round two will commence in the Best Supporting Actor race as Robert Downey Jr. (Oppenheimer) and Ryan Gosling (Barbie) lead our predictions for two very different performances. From there, Poor Things looks guaranteed to secure one spot in the field, likely Mark Ruffalo. If Willem Dafoe also gets in for the film, that would be a strong sign of support for the film and make it more of a competitor all around.
After a win at the Gothams, Charles Melton’s campaign for May December gained a great deal of heat. It’s possible that either he or newcomer Dominic Sessa can overtake a veteran actor like Robert De Niro, though it's an uphill battle as the Oscars are normally resistant to young men. The final outside contender is John Magaro, who could wind up in the category if Past Lives resurges at the right time.
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Best Adapted and Original Screenplay Predictions
Many of the Best Picture contenders are taking up lots of air in the screenplay categories. Poor Things currently overtakes the two Picture frontrunners - Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer, but all feel like likely Adapted Screenplay nominees, alongside American Fiction. Over in Original Screenplay, The Holdovers has a more commanding lead. Barbie, Past Lives and Anatomy of a Fall all seem likely strong, worthy also-rans.
Both categories have pretty wide-open fifth slots that could conceivably go to films that aren’t as large contenders in the Best Picture race. For Adapted Screenplay, All of Us Strangers and Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret could sneak in over bigger Oscar players like The Zone of Interest and The Color Purple. Similarly, movies like May December, Saltburn and Air look to overtake the bait-y biopic Maestro.
Who do you think will earn Oscar nominations in the Picture, Directing, Acting and Writing categories? Let us know in the comments below.
Reader Comments (18)
I’m really hoping May December goes against odds and overperforms (or performs as it should) and we get Charles Melton AND Julianne Moore.
I have a weird feeling that for some goddamn reason... The Sound of Freedom is going to get a Best Picture nomination as you know that will piss off a lot of people.
It's a long-shot and it's probably definitely going to happen but man, my wish is that May December over-performs and not just gets multiple nominations for the cast and screenplay but also for Haynes. I know it's majorly unlikely but I can dream.
I just don’t know about this year. I know there’s a lot I still need to see but Air is the only film I actively loved that is even mildly in the conversation for best picture. I respect the hell out of Killers of the Flower Moon and Oppenheimer but just can’t quite get to “love”.
Speaking of Killers of the Flower Moon, I maintain that I don’t think Leo is getting nominated. He’s been passed over for Scorsese films more often than he has been nominated, and he isn’t good in Killers. I’d argue he’s kind of bad.
And I can’t believe people could suggest that DeNiro might miss! He is by far the best performance in the film.
I too hope for May December successes but I don’t see it beyond like 1 nomination maybe.
I think Supporting Actress is kind of a mess and I don’t count on Globes & Indie Spirits to clear it up. I haven’t seen Ferrari but Penelope looks GREAT in it. If she is, I’ll be rooting for her.
I also haven’t seen Barbie but Gosling…really? Do we really need to do that?
For best actor, I have two wishes:
1) Paul Giamatti did his best work yet in The Holdovers so I hope he is nominated. Kind of hoping he’s the only acting nominee from that film tbh.
2) If Bradley Cooper is the real deal in Maestro, can we finally do this right and give him the win?
Okay, I'll give these a shot:
Director: Nolan, Scorsese, Lanthimos, Triet, and Cooper.
Actress: Gladstone, Mulligan, Stone - and then after that who knows in this crowded field, although I dearly hope Greta Lee will be in the mix.
Actor: Murphy, Wright, Cooper, Scott and then either DiCaprio or Giamatti but I'm not sure which (Giamatti and the Oscars, not a strong relationship thus far).
Supporting Actor: Gosling, Downey, Ruffalo ... and then I don't know. At the moment I'd bet Melton and Sessa, but this seems open enough for some new name to get added to the conversation over the next month (kind of think Team Oppenheimer could've gotten someone else into the mix who wasn't Damon, but they went with Damon as their second).
Supporting Actress: Randolph, Brooks, Cruz, Blunt, Pike. I could see Foster or even Myers but I'll go with that 5 - partially because Pike is one of my absolute things this year, and she has been great for years. I wish Johansson was in the mix too, but that film seems likely to be forgotten, at least above the line.
I've hardly seen any films in contention except Barbie and I didn't like it,Gosling was quite fun but Oscar worthy is a real stretch.
My fave film from the year is Evil Dead Rise.
I just realized that if Alexander Payne is nominated for Best Director, that would continue his streak of being nominated alongside Scorsese for all of his nominations in the category (assuming Scorsese is also nominated, which seems to be a lock).
I don't think there's a way both DiCaprio and DeNiro miss for Killers. Actually, I'm pretty sure Leo's safe. It's true he has been passed over but that was a long time ago and you know the history of that category and beautiful leading men: once they get older, they feel comfortable nominating them. Remember Leo got in for Once Upon a Time in Hollywood in a VERY crowded field. This one's not that competitive and he's in a top 2 film that's bound to get tons of nods. He's in.
Leo just seems stuck in 6th place out of the 6 likeliest contenders. All the rest have a narrative, and his film underperformed expectations at the box office and got little criticisms here and there about its length and representation. Plus he’s won already.
I would be surprised if Domingo gets in - Rustin is clearly Netflix's 3rd priority, no one's too excited about the movie, he's the only part of it being campaigned, and competition is heavy.
(But being in the conversation all year will help - if he fails this year, he'll be set up well the next time he's in a great movie.)
Decades from now, Gosling's performance will probably be remembered more fondly than any other from this year, but sure, let's ding it for not being "Oscar-worthy," whatever that means. This is the type of logic that kept Cary Grant from winning a competitive Oscar and gave us winners like Eddie Redmayne in Theory of Everything.
I'm a bit surprised by the Leo skepticism. He's in a film the academy is sure to love and working in a different mode than we usually see him in. He's also well liked by the academy. I think he's pretty safe for a nomination.
I'm a bit surprised that Annette's not even on the board and Jodie Foster is. I think if Jodie's in, then so in Annette.
I am getting worried about Past Lives. Despite how good it is, it feels really outside of the Academy's wheelhouse to make it into BP. I'm also nervous that Iron Claw could become the sleeper focus of A24's campaign this year, leaving Past Lives to get lost in the shuffle.
Edwin -- it would also tie him with Peter Weir at 4 Best Director nominations without a win. Then again, Payne has won twice for Best Adapted Screenplay.
Just watched May December last night and I’m stunned by the fact that so many other names are being discussed before Julianne Moore. She’s always been one of the greats and yet has had multiple long stretches where she is taken for granted and ignored for great work. In May December, this is real character work. It’s a great performance. Her best scene is either the makeup scene or probably the bedroom scene when she reveals the real controlling monster that she is. Charles Melton is great too, and they both should be nominated. Seriously, if Emily Blunt’s nothing performance in Oppenheimer gets nominated instead of this, it will be a real waste of a category.
I was blown away by May December. I KNOW Best Actress is so competitive but we need to find room for Portman. Her best work since Black Swan.
@charlea, I thought Julianne Moore was excellent as well. But, I do wonder if post-Oscar she'll have more of a Susan Sarandon/Shirley MacLaine/Susan Hayward trajectory with the Academy. The supporting actress category this year is really competitive, and I think it's also the category where the Academy has recently been putting in women from big contenders.
@Joe G: I guess I’d argue “but is it actually a fair competition when a slot seems to be reserved for a bad performance in a nothing role (Emily Blunt) and another slot seems to be reserved for a bland performance in a good role (Da’Vine)?”. That only leaves 3 slots/opportunities for great work to be recognized.
The way I always look at nominations is imagining if anyone would actually say or think “wow THAT really was one of the five best acting performances that I saw during the entire year”. That’s why bad nominations like Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook or Octavia Spencer in The Shape of Water just stick out like sore thumbs. I can see people saying that about Julianne Moore in May December because it feels totally singular, impressive and leaves a lasting impression and I definitely cannot see people thinking the same about Blunt and Da’Vine; I can only see people thinking “I like Emily Blunt and Da’Vine as people so I’ll nominate them”. Just my opinion of course.
Here is a prediction for "Best Actor." Because of how RCV works, someone is going to get a lot of #1 votes, but miss the nomination without any #2 and #3, while someone with a widely admired performance will have enough #1 votes to move to another round voting and pick up a slew of #2 and #3.