Oscar Volley: Who's Really Safe in Best Actress?
Thursday, December 21, 2023 at 11:00AM Team Experience is discussing each Oscar category as we head into the precursors. Here's Eurocheese and Nick Taylor to talk Best Actress . . . .
Lily Gladstone is coming on strong for KILLERS OF THE FLOWER MOON . . . .
EUROCHEESE: Hi Nick! So excited to discuss the award we all care about most here at The Film Experience - Best Actress. This year has given us a deep bench of competitors, making this feel like a category where we could see a curve ball or two.
Maybe it's best to get the obvious out of the way first - Lily Gladstone's subtle, moving work in Killers of the Flower Moon steals the film from her veteran costars, and Emma Stone's risky, inventive performance is the heart of Poor Things. I don't see the Actress field without them, and I expect one of them will most likely run away with the Oscar. Which one of them takes it? I don't think that's clear yet. I don't put any stock in LA Critics' Supporting mention for Gladstone though - these are our sure things.
NICK: Hi Euro! I’m so excited to discuss this category with you again. I remember we did the pre-nomination volley for last year’s Best Actress contenders. There were so many fun performances to talk about, and in the end I got maybe 3/5 of my predicted lineup right. This year looks similarly crowded, though who knows if another To Leslie is lying in wait . . . .
. . . . but don't count out Emma Stone in POOR THINGS just yet
All that being said, Lily and Emma are 100% sure things. Calling Gladstone our winner is likely putting too much stock in her critical sweep so far, but she’s going to have a lot of opportunities to give some very moving acceptance speeches on behalf of a film and a character that have really resonated with folks this year. She and Stone are also likely winning their respective Globes, but I wonder if we’re gonna see the first steamroller Best Actress has had in several years.
I feel comfortable calling Sandra Hüller a lock for Anatomy of a Fall, albeit one I don’t see with much chance to win. Her performance has lived up to the incredible amount of hype from her one-two punch of Anatomy and The Zone of Interest since they premiered at Cannes. She’s at once painfully flayed open from a dozen angles while remaining utterly resistant to revealing the deepest truth of whether she murdered her husband. It’s a fantastic highwire act, bolstering by the exquisite filmmaking, writing, and acting on every side of this courtroom character study. Hüller might be my favorite of the Best Actress contenders I’ve seen so far, and I can’t wait to hear her name read on nomination morning. But are you as convinced of Hüller as I am, Euro? And who else do you think could round out those last slots?
EUROCHEESE: Huller gives the performance of the year in any acting category. My main concern is that Anatomy of a Fall is either lauded heavily or almost completely ignored by groups this awards season. I'd like to think the Academy will go high brow and nominate her, but especially in a category with so many viable options, I'm not sure I can call her a lock. I'd love to hear more people agree with you on that front though. I would also have given her a nomination for Toni Erdmann years ago, the same year Emma Stone won her Oscar. Showing up in two prominent awards films this year helps her case as well.
Is Sandra a lock or not?
If Anatomy of a Fall manages to take one of the Best Picture slots, we could see something we haven't seen in this category since 1977: All five Actress nominations could be coming from Best Picture nominees. If this is the case, I expect Greta Lee will make good on her precursor love with her empathetic work in Past Lives, and we may see producer Margot Robbie continue to capitalize on her Barbie success by taking the final slot. It's hard to tell if the Academy will embrace Barbie in quite the same way as other awards bodies. Gosling is such a scene stealer that some are underrating the balance of comedy, pathos and perfect casting that were needed for Robbie to help her behemoth blockbuster achieve its heights. Will the Academy recognize the craft in her work?
There are still three more options that could lead to a line up matching Best Picture. Carey Mulligan brings us the classic long-suffering wife in Maestro, though their unique love story is complicated by his sexuality. I had issues with Maestro as a whole, but Mulligan is pitch perfect, becoming the film's primary focus. (It also doesn't hurt that her small role in Saltburn is a delight.) We also have Fantasia Barrino in The Color Purple, and while both the movie and its leading lady have had an inconsistent track record for notices this season, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if Picture and Actress nominations surface. Rounding out the group, Natalie Portman goes for broke in the darkly funny May December, though the Academy has always had a strange relationship with Todd Haynes films.
Are these our Top 8? Certainly there are more to discuss, but these seem like the most likely possibilities at this point. As you mentioned, though, last year showed us that we can never be too sure.
We hope Robbie can say "Hi Oscar!" on nomination morning
NICK: I would love so much for Robbie to make it, and though I still fear she’d be easy to take for granted, I feel more comfortable about the odds of her getting in. Robbie’s performance is such a precise blend of stylized comedy and increasing depth, evolving brilliantly from a concept to something happily approaching real humanity. Either she’s Amy Adams in American Hustle and makes it on the crest of her film’s popularity and her own brilliance, or she’s Amy Adams in Arrival and somehow misses out for headlining a huge hit in an incredibly crowded Best Actress field.
Evoking the 2016 Actress field is also my way of saying that four “locks” feels like a lot for how many women are playing the field here. Greta Lee making the Globes lineup is an impressive feat, though I wonder if Oscar might narrow its attention for Past Lives solely towards Celine Song. Portman and May December are doing a lot better with precursor awards than I anticipated, and she’s one of the rare performers who the Academy seems fully receptive to rewarding when they go out on weird limbs with known auteurs. If The Color Purple is the crowdpleaser it wants to be, Barrino could be an easy get. Mulligan’s performance in Maestro looks tailor-made for nominations, but she’s missed too many times for roles and films that look perfect on paper for me to feel comfortable rubber-stamping her.
Annette Bening's campaign for NYAD is not going swimmingly
That’s a lot of women already, to say nothing of Annette Bening in Nyad or Caitlin Spaeney in Priscilla, both headlining biopics that have received considerable buzz for their central performances. The Venice prize makes me feel more confident in Spaeney’s odds - Bening’s picked exactly the right kind of role to get back into the Best Actress race, but she’s not even picking up the obligatory heat her co-star Jodie Foster is receiving.
Is there anyone else who seems like a plausible contender from here? The only other Globe nominees we haven’t mentioned are Alma Poysti in Fallen Leaves and Jennifer Lawrence in No Hard Feelings - I haven’t seen Poysti, but Lawrence gives a hysterical star turn that, on its own merits, would be a great Best Actress nominee. Could Trace Lysette in Monica be this year’s Andrea Riseborough? Lord knows she’s encouraging folks to see her film, which she’s quite great in. Will Helen Mirren get a weird SAG nom for Golda, causing folks to predict her in a panic despite her film legally not existing?
Could Teyana Taylor be this year's surprise nominee?
EUROCHEESE: I'd say just ahead of the last few you mentioned, there will be impassioned pockets of support for Teyana Taylor, who has received several notices for A Thousand and One, and Aunjanue Ellis-Taylor, who helps guide Ava DuVernay's divisive but powerful Origin. I was bowled over by Origin, but I've seen criticisms that it is more of a thesis statement than a full fledged film, wondering why it wasn't turned into a documentary. Weighing the central character's personal life with her discoveries might be a tricky task, but Ellis-Taylor handled it beautifully. The issue for these two small films will be the number of people seeing them, and I don't know if that will change in time for nomination morning. They are certainly worthy of a mention here though.
This leads me back to my expected five, and I'm concerned that they are matching my personal top five for the year. Am I overthinking the dissenting voices on Maestro, a film that has been well reviewed overall? Am I underestimating the impact The Color Purple will have on crowds this season? Both are very possible, but here is where I land:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Greta Lee, Past Lives
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Hüller should be vying for the win, but for now I am just keeping my fingers crossed that we see her here.
NICK: My own predictions right now, listed in order of likelihood, are:
Lily Gladstone, Killers of the Flower Moon
Emma Stone, Poor Things
Sandra Hüller, Anatomy of a Fall
Margot Robbie, Barbie
Natalie Portman, May December
Basically, I think the same eight to ten women are still going to be fighting for slots all season, though I know I’m also putting in my favorites from the films I’ve seen rather than putting in films I’m less excited about. I love your shoutout for Teyana Taylor, and I can’t wait to see Origin.
Before we close out, are there any leading actresses you’d encourage TFE readers to hunt down?
Abby Ryder Forston is fantastic in ARE YOU THERE GOD? IT'S ME, MARGARET
EUROCHEESE: If you haven't gotten around to seeing Are You There God? It's Me Margaret, its young leading lady Abby Ryder Fortson is one to watch in future years, going toe to toe with Rachel McAdams' best performance since Mean Girls. Jessica Chastain is also doing terrific work in Memory, a film I highly recommend catching.
Thanks for chatting with me on this banner year for the category!
More people should see Babetida Sadjo in OUR FATHER. THE DEVIL
NICK: I'm completely with you on Forston, who's such a great anchor for her film. Going international, I thought Babetida Sadjo gave one of the year’s best performance in Our Father, the Devil, about an African nurse working in a French retirement home who recognizes a visiting priest as a ruinous figure from her past. She has to negotiate a delicate mixture of psychological acuity and thriller tension, and she manages to play Marie as a real person, someone who’s forged a new life faced with old wounds that have never fully healed and a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to atone for her past in her captor’s blood. I can’t recommend her performance enough. Also, Sakura Ando is pretty incredible in Monster.
Thank you again for a wonderful conversation Euro, and I hope all your favorites get nominated this year.
Reader Comments (16)
I agree with your assessment of the race regarding Stone and Gladstone.
Mulligan is definitley getting in because the Academy adores films like Maestro,roles of this type and also Cooper who is my current Best Actor pick.
Huller I think will miss but surprise in the supporting actress category.
I am no Barbie fan but Robbie snubbed doesn't seem right if the film is the behemoth it's being made out to be,I'll ever understand what people saw in a fairly unfunny film with nice sets and an a great Kevin Kline type comedy turn.
Lee has what people call passion votes and they matter for no 1 placements
As much as I liked Portman in May December moreso than Moore I find hard to believe anyone would put her in their Top 2 or 3.
Bening is out,Foster caught on she didn't,I loved Jodie in the film and didn't like the Bening characterisation.
Spaney the buzz died pretty quickly for her Volpi cup win which seemed of little interest to people,still alive thanks to the Globes.
Fortson is in one of the best films of this year but it's never happening and MCadams is only a long shot.
Barrino's film is heading for snubs.
Mirren what seemed good on paper didn't translate,has it been released over there in the USA ,SAG have nominated her for less.
Chastain,Taylor,Ellis,Lawrence and the rest may get 1 or 2 votes but would be real shocks if nominated.
It's a tough year, since I desperately want Huller AND Robbie AND Lee AND Portman nominated alongside Stone and Gladstone - and at least one of them won't make it.
At least I don't have to be the one choosing.
Hüller is safer than Lee. Long monologues, crying scenes, blind kid, a second movie in compettion...
I'm not crazy about Gladstone, sorry. Not her fault but the movie doesn't know what to do with her character other than make her suffer. So linear.
If by that you mean "gets in through living room campaigning," then Chastain. If you mean "dark horse stealth nominee," definitely put Teyana and Aunjanue on the list.
It's looking likely we won't have anyone playing a well known person which has me thinking about Bening and Spaney's chances.
Gotta love the mental gymnastics required to consider Gladstone a lead and Moore supporting, and also De Niro supporting at the same time. LOL. Studio campaigning chicanery pure and simple, and everyone just eats it up.
I think you guys are seriously underestimating Mulligan. She feels like a lock to me.
Actress is seriously competitive this year!
I agree that Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone are the locks right now. I definitely think Lily Gladstone is in the lead right now. She's a fantastic actress whose star has been rising over the years, in one of the most acclaimed movies of the year from one of their most beloved, legendary directors -- AND it's a chance for the Academy to make history.
Emma Stone already has an Oscar. I seem some similarities to last year with Cate v Michelle, and I think it'll fall the same way. If Emma didn't already have one, then I think it would be a much tighter race.
I do think Sandra Hüller will get in, but I could see the theory of her being nominated in supporting instead playing out.
I was really stoked at the idea of one of our American Idols, Fantasia, being nominated for an Oscar, especially after famously losing the role of Effie to Jennifer Hudson back in the day (which obviously ended well for JHud) -- BUT I don't think The Color Purple is landing the way it needed to in order to crash major categories outside Supporting Actress for Brooks. I can see Fantasia nominated at SAG, and if it's a big holiday hit, she could still be in the running for 5th place.
Greta Lee could go either way, but I do expect passion votes for the film, Celine Song, and Lee. If it were a showier role, it would have a better shot, but she's definitely in the running.
Margot Robbie could also go either way. She's obviously the headliner, but it isn't the kind of acting showcase that stands out in a steal the show kind of way Ken does. It's easy to take her performance for granted in a fun movie with so much spectacle to take in. I think Margot is skating on thin ice here for this stacked field.
I expect the Academy to fall hard for Maestro, but also wouldn't be surprised if Mulligan missed, especially because she has before.
If May December is the Todd Haynes film they finally fall for, I'll be puzzled, but it's totally possible. Unless they go ALL IN for it, I think Julianne Moore and Charles Melton have more of a chance than Natalie Portman at this moment in time, in my eyes.
I think SAG nods will be interesting!
As of right now, if I had to predict five, I'd say...
(in order of likelihood)
• Lily Gladstone / Killers of the Flower Moon
• Emma Stone / Poor Things
• Sandra Hüller / Anatomy of a Fall
• Carrie Mulligan / Maestro
• Margot Robbie / Barbie
Alternates, right on the heels...
• Greta Lee / Past Lives
• Fantasia / The Color Purple
Pulling votes, but won't be enough...
• Annette Bening, Nyad
• Cailee Spainey, Priscilla
• Teyana Taylor, A Thousand and One
I still think there are 3 nearly 4 locks Stone,Robbie,Mulligan,Gladstone and then Lee Huller and Portman for the 5th slot with Bening running distanly behind,I always felt they'd only embrace either Nyad or May December but not both and I think that will play out nomination morning with Foster/Bening or Moore/Portman but I could also see all 4 being snubbed.
Is anyone really thinking Mulligan ISN'T A LOCK for "Maestro"?
Really unbelievable!
Bening
Gladstone
Hüller
Mulligan
Stone
I think we have a consensus top 9:
Gladstone
Stone
Robbie
Huller
Lee
Barrino
Mulligan
Portman
Bening
It's a shame because the four that'll miss would have been win-competitive in a weaker year.
I won't be surprised if Gladstone gets the award. It will be just like last year - a good performance with a great narrative wins over the performance of the year.
Mulligan seems perennially underrated. She gives the performance of the year, in my opinion, with Huller a close 2nd (haven't seen Emma yet though).
Mulligan seems perennially underrated. She gives the performance of the year, in my opinion, with Huller a close 2nd (haven't seen Emma yet though).
Just watched Maestro and I thought Mulligan was INCREDIBLE.
Ok, I finally saw POOR THINGS last night and while Emma Stone is *fierce* (in the best possible way) and Lily Gladstone will probably be our winner, I really think my favorite remains Margot Robbie. What she's doing in BARBIE is *not* easy to do, for the reasons you guys note, and she nails it. And she's just so enormously fun to watch.