by Nathaniel R
With virtually every late year release, save arguably House of Gucci, meeting an enthusiastic response even if they weren't quite expected to (hello showbiz drama Being the Ricardos and all star satire Don't Look Up) and two more potential behemoths about to start screening (West Side Story and Nightmare Alley) the Best Picture race is yet more crowded and confusing. Let's break it all down...
THE SURE THINGS
With Focus Features Belfast, Warner Bros King Richard, and Netflix's Power of the Dog all now in release, they feel like immovable objects at this point, despite no precursor body sounding off yet. So we're locking them all up on the chart. Whether or not they'll actually turn all their individual buzz into gold statues is a future problem for those awards camps. From here on out it will be all about maintaining the buzz, living up to high expectations and gathering actual AMPAS votes. Given their strong leads the directors Kenneth Branagh, Reinald Marcus Green, and Jane Campion, all are viable players in Best Director, too. In a strangely under-the-radar Adapted Screenplay year, Jane Campion could well sail to her second Oscar for writing for Dog.
THE HIT THAT'LL PROBABLY BE THERE
With moviegoing not what it used to be pre-pandemic, and streaming all the rage, one imagines that voters will be drawn to the one certified theatrical hit that's being taken seriously for its art. So even though Dune is only half a story and not actually a huge blockbuster - $94 million domestic is enough to put it in the 11-20 range of the year's biggest hits which is a typical Oscarable range for hits -- it's hard to see it missing now.
That leaves seven open slots and (happy news for moviegoers!) there are more than enough rich movies to fill those slots. It's competitive!
COMING IN HOT
Being The Ricardos is an 'inside showbiz' picture and we know how much Oscar voters like those. It'll surely play well to the older members of the Academy who have memories of mid century Hollywood. There are fewer of those voters now, of course, but Lucille Ball and I Love Lucy were such cultural mainstays, and the "Red scare" of Hollywood such an infamous time, and Sorkins screenplay touching on so many other still-relevant showbiz issues (ambition, sexism, ageism, creativity) that it's hard to imagine it won't play well for younger voters too.
Adam McKay (The Big Short, Vice) has been on a hot streak with Oscar voters ever since he got "serious" (albeit still within the realm of comedy) and though all Oscar hot streaks eventually come to an end, the first screening responses out of the all-star impending global disaster satire Don't Look Up suggest that that hot-streak's end is not yet upon us.
Paul Thomas Anderson's latest Licorice Pizza is already intensely beloved by the early-screening set but we wonder if that will last. Once the film reaches a wider demographic it could run into more trouble as it has elements that would surely torpedo a less-beloved or less-confident director. It's a lot of fun, and individual scenes are just incredible, but it's also crazy meandering, long, oddly structured, and genuinely nuts; its closest relatives within PTA's filmography are Inherent Vice and Punch-Drunk Love. Neither of those films got far with general audiences or the Academy. It's also difficult to see Pizza not getting a significant backlash on social media given the jokey racism of a few of its comic beats and especially the central romance. Yes, the 70s were a different time but people attack adult consensual couples in 2021 for merely being different ages (we still shudder thinking of the way grown adults Florence Pugh and Zach Braff have been treated online for daring to fall in love) so won't there be outrage for a romantic comedy revolving around a 25 year old girl and a 15 year old boy, however endearing those characters are?
DIVISIVE
House of Gucci has met with confusing all over the place reviews but it's not quite down for the count given that it might overperform in theaters and the A list director (Ridley Scott) and A list cast will keep people talking. Spencer is another possibility and passionate fanbases help (it definitely has one of those) but it's underperformance in theaters and the total media focus on its leading lady might spell trouble in terms of landing a Best Picture nomination, given how well people are reacting to the latest contenders for the seven open slots.
YET TO SCREEN
At this writing both of the year's highest profile remakes West Side Story and Nightmare Alley have yet to start screening. They have different obstacles to glory. The new West Side Story has to survive the intense scrutiny of measuring up to a classic that's very much part of the cultural fabric already. The original Nightmare Alley is not woven into American culture (apart from the niche world of noir-enthusiasts) but the degree of difficulty is high. Guillermo del Toro will have to both nimbly dramatize its now archaic topics (circuses, mediums!) and live up to the scrutiny/expectations that come whenever a famous director is following up his huge Oscar-winning triumph with a cast of glamorous stars in tow.
WHO KNOWS. BUT STRONG CAMPAIGNS COULD MAKE A BIG DIFFERENCE
There are a lot of pictures that might wedge themselves into voters hearts and thus on to Oscar ballots. Most of them will have to work around a major obstacle or two, whether that's subtitles, genre-specific Oscar aversions, perceptions of failure, or their distributor being distracted by other films in their slate.
One of the tragedies of "Punditry" as an echo chamber and a parlor game is that it can damage riskier but worthy bets by dismissing them too quickly. But before any major precursors have been announced and before the top ten media avalanche that is December hits, it would be rude and foolish to entirely dismiss the potential crossover appeal of any of these titles: Tragedy of Macbeth, C'mon C'mon, Cyrano, A Hero, Passing, CODA, Parallel Mothers, Flee, In the Heights, The Lost Daughter, The Last Duel, Titane, Zola, Tick tick... BOOM!, Worst Person in the World.
The Director and Screenplay charts, both heavily influenced by Best Picture of course, have also been updated. Adapted Screenplay feels particularly volatile this year with only Power of the Dog a sure thing and most of the buzzy films falling under the "Original" umbrella.
UPDATED CHARTS
BEST PICTURE
BEST DIRECTOR
BEST ORIGINAL/ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
BEST ACTRESS
BEST ACTOR
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
UP NEXT: BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR