by Nathaniel R
Gabriel Labelle in "The Fabelmans"
While rising stars are a semi-annual event in the female acting categories, Oscar voters have long been resistant to young male actors. The statistics bear this out. For whatever reason (cough *the patriarchy*) voters prefer their women young / full of potential and their men older / with lots of achievements already under their belt. Yes, those stats are beginning to change. For example, Oscar voters have been much kinder to 40something to 60something actresses in the past couple of decades than they previously were. With the men, though, things have stayed much the same.
Once men enter their 30s, awards bodies tend to take them seriously but before the 30something years it definitely takes a very special combination of the right role in the right film in the right year and with the right co-stars. Do you think any of these men will make it this year? Here are eight actors, thirty or younger, that are in the conversation or adjacent to it this season...
EDEN DAMBRINE (15) Close
He's already a Best Actor nominee for Belgium's Oscar submission at the European Film Awards. If he wins he'll be the youngest lead actor to ever win that prize. Oscar dreams are very much alive for the movie but consider that EFA nom the icing on the cake. Oscar voters rarely nominated subtitled performances in the Best Actor category. The only non-English language male performances nominated have been from legendary international movie stars (think Mastroianni, Bardem, Banderas, Depardieu and the like), older men in critical sensation movies, or men who led the rare non-English language Best Picture nominees. It's not a long list.
GABRIEL LABELLE (19) The Fabelmans
Speaking of young male leads. Only two men under 20 have ever been nominated for best actor and both were way back in the 1930s (Jackie Cooper for Skippy and Mickey Rooney for Babes in Arms). Child stars and teen stars were much more en vogue in Hollywood's Golden Age. That's bad news for Labelle but he is leading the presumed Best Picture frontrunner so you never know.
MICHEAL WARD (25) Empire of Light
HAPPY BIRTHDAY ON THIS VERY DAY (Nov 18th). It's worth noting that Best Supporting Actor is kinder to men under 30 than Best Actor is. Empire of Light is right in Oscar's wheelhouse as films go, but simultaneously the reviews have been reserved in their praise or straight up mixed. Still, voters love Olivia Colman and she could have conceivably have coattails if she makes it in. Ward is a fast-rising British actor, He won BAFTA's public vote prize the EE Rising Star Award just two years back and since then made a splash in Steve McQueen's Small Axe, receiving a Best Supporting Actor BAFTA TV nomination.
PAUL MESCAL (26) Aftersun
He's already received three nominations (BIFA, Gotham, EFA) for his mysterious deeply moving performance as a young father in this evocative British indie. It's a reminder of the prodigous gifts that brought him to the world's attention when he was just 24 in the miniseries Normal People. Oscar voters are not particularly receptive to actors this young, though. Only three 26 year-olds have ever been nominated for Best Actor: Ryan Gosling (Half Nelson), Orson Welles (Citizen Kane), and Heath Ledger (Brokeback Mountain)... four if you count how old James Dean would have been at the Oscars celebrating Giant had he not died two years earlier at the age of 24.
HARRIS DICKINSON (26) Triangle of Sadness
Critics and pundits haven't been mentioning Dickinson much for leading the Palme d'Or winning satire. That's a pity because his deft performance is crucial to the success of the satire as a needy male model who just wants to be taken care of. But that's what happens when you're a very beautiful male actor (as opposed to a beautiful female actor). Extremely beautiful men are often not seen as talentedharris until they are a bit weathered. And Dickinson is very talented. See also his award-worthy work in Beach Rats.
DIEGO CALVA (30) Babylon
In the biggest role in Babylon he holds his own with Brad Pitt and Margot Robbie and the camera loves him just as much. We could have a star-is-born moment IF the public actually likes the movie (hard to say since it's about Hollywood a topic that doesn't thrill the masses like it does critics and awards voters). He's the perfect age to be majorly in demand if people love him in this since the 30something years is generally where the hot roles are found. 30 is also old enough to not be a detriment to voters taking you seriously for a nomination (if not a win). Very very hesitantly predicting him at the moment in Best Actor but really only because the fifth slot is extremely wide open with no single actor yet staking a strong claim to it. Otherwise Calva's role is quite a lot more reactive than Oscar prefers; Calva is always centered but his character is also always focused on whatever his far more flamboyant scene partners are doing.
JEREMY POPE (30) The Inspection
If Pope is nominated for playing a gay marine he'll be the first openly gay black man ever nominated in the category. It's super rare for out actors to be Oscar-nominated in any category (though several have come out after their nomination years) but times are changing so we hope that doesn't stay true for much longer. It's worth noting that Pope has sailed to nominations that might have seemed difficult to achieve already in his career having landed an Emmy nod for Hollywood (and voters had a lot of choices that year) in 2020 and not one but TWO Tony Award nominations in a single season on Broadway (Featured Actor: Aint Too Proud to Beg, Lead Actor: Choir Boy) in 2019.
TRIVIA: If he's nominated he won't quite be the youngest black Best Actor nominee ever but the second youngest. That record is currently held by Daniel Kaluuya, nominated at just 28 for Get Out (2017). Sidney Poitier had held that distinction for a very long time receiving his first nomination at the age of 31 for The Defiant Ones. (The youngest Back male actor ever nominated is Jaye Davison who was 24 when he was nominated for Supporting Actor for The Crying Game.)
BARRY KEOGHAN (30) The Banshees of Inisherin
He turned 30 just last month and though he's competing against a co-star with a much larger role in Brendan Gleeson (who is being pitched Supporting), Martin McDonagh's dark comedy is feeling so strong moving into awards season that that might not matter. Keoghan has already had cut an indelible impression in several films and his latest is arguably his best performance yet. Best Supporting Actor didn't used to give us "doubles" from the same film frequently but that's suddenly become common. It's happened four times in the past five years with The Power of the Dog (2021), Judas and the Black Messiah (2020), and The Irishman (2019 after the trend kicked off with another Martin McDonagh film Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri (2017). Right now we're predicting both Gleeson & Keoghan to make it and this doubling-up trend to continue for another year.
We think this trend is happening because voters are watching less films than they used to. The expansion of Best Picture in 2009 has widened that honor but ironically shrunk the number of movies that are receiving nominations anywhere else.
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