Our Oscar Volleys continue with Eric Blume, Baby Clyde, and Gabriel Mayora with surprising confessions, hot takes, and unexpected sentiment.
Eric Blume: I suspect we have three locks for nominations in this category: Paul Thomas Anderson for Licorice Pizza, Kenneth Branagh for Belfast, and Adam McKay for Don't Look Up! I am a colossal fan of PTA, but it makes me sad to think he could finally win his Oscar for one of his weaker pictures. I am mystified by the rave reaction to Licorice Pizza, which is wonderful in patches, but the screenplay is so meandering and fails to culminate in anything dramatically. Plus, it's a genre we've seen hundreds of times. PTA is able to bring his directorial dazzle to it, but as a script, it's severely undercooked. I do think Don't Look Up! has a magnificent setup for a comedy, but the jokes are flabby and tepid, and it's not exactly razor sharp in terms of structure or dialogue. The script just kind of lays there. Of the three, I think Branagh's script is the strongest: it indeed does culminate in something dramatically, plus it's tight and contained, and captures the Irish humor dead-on.
Belfast is no masterpiece, but it feels true, has some vivid characterizations, and Branagh finds a good balance between how the personal and political flow over each other. What are your feelings on these three contenders?
Baby Clyde: I disliked Licorice Pizza immensely...
To be fair I haven’t enjoyed a PTA film since Boogie Nights, so my expectations were low and I wasn’t outright revolted by it as I was by Phantom Thread, but it was still a ridiculously overlong, plot free mess, with a central relationship that makes no sense; of course it’s going to win! Talking of ridiculously over long messes Don’t Look Up will surely also get nominated as the Academy loves Adam McKay no matter the quality. It's a woefully unfunny satire that desperately needed the likes of Armando Iannucci to pull it off. It needed to be darker and meaner to be truly funny and as Veep ultimately showed us it’s basically impossible to satirise these deeply ridiculous times we live in. Despite its poor critical reception I think it will land with voters.
Belfast I was indifferent to. I’m sure the story may have seemed significant to Kenneth Branagh, but it's a bit underwhelming. It doesn’t seem like there was anything particularly noteworthy about his childhood that warrants an entire feature film but then the egos of multi-millionaire movie directors are by definition somewhat inflated.
So I will change course and say that far and away the most deserving screenplay in contention is King Richard. Whilst 2½ hours long, it flies by. What could easily have just been a collection of sports movie cliches somehow feels fresh and funny and moving. Most of all it's really enjoyable in a year chock-a-block with total downers. It’s a great big, middle brow, crowd pleasing hit or at least it would have been in any normal year. It’s the type of film we should be encouraging when all we currently have is superhero blockbusters and acclaimed indies that only we film buffs watch. It’s exactly the sort of film that Oscars were made for. I’m rooting for it to get properly rewarded come nomination day.
Gabriel, do you think King Richard’s in? If so, what’s taking up the 5th slot?
Eric Blume: I have to interrupt with a quick contrary opinion so people don’t get bored. I think King Richard is hot garbage. It is all a collection of sports cliches and has zero depth. Purely lowest-common-denominator nonsense. Gabriel, get in the ring and separate us!
Gabriel Mayora Careful what you wish for. I'm in the ring now and it is two against one. What's sad is I was ready to start with a defense of Belfast. You had to jump in with not only a contrary opinion about King Richard, but the wrong opinion! I went into King Richard expecting to see the movie you described. Tennis movies are notoriously dull, sport movies are one of my least favorite subgenres, and I was more than a little skeptical about the decision to center Venus & Serena Williams' father in a retelling of their story. Watching the actual movie, I was consistently surprised by how suspenseful, thoughtful, funny, and exciting the story is rendered. As Baby Clyde already perfectly described, this is a stellar example of a Hollywood movie. Yes, we know how the story ends, but the screenplay never turns it into a "greatest hits," choosing instead to focus on the shifting character dynamics. I particularly found the subtle shift in perspective from Richard to Venus not only surprising but seamlessly executed. And it's hard to think of a lot of studio movies of this level that celebrate Black sisterhood the way this film does. I'll proudly stand in its corner!
Baby Clyde: Thanks for jumping to my defence about King Richard, Gabriel. Game, Set and Match to us I say.
Gabriel Mayora: I am predicting King Richard but there are other contenders that pose a threat. I agree with you both that Belfast, Don't Look Up (a messy screenplay but with a message the Academy will want to support), and the bafflingly beloved Licorice Pizza are locks (sidenote: Baby, I felt so seen by your comment about Phantom Thread). I am worried that King Richard might be fighting for the 5th slot, not the 4th. The film is losing momentum, while the industry is under the impression that Being the Ricardos is more than just a pleasantly watchable movie. The Aaron Sorkin factor concerns me here. I am placing it in 4th place and King Richard in 5th.
Eric, how do you see Being the Ricardos factoring into this race?
Eric Blume: Ha! Bring it, guys...I love a spirited disagreement, especially with two people who are so misguided ;) Believe me, you two can have King Richard...please, take it! In all seriousness, I think Sorkin is definitely in for Being the Ricardos. If he got nominations for Molly's Game and the execrable Trial of the Chicago 7, then he's certainly getting one for the Lucy and Desi picture. I actually think it's a smart, well-paced, brisk, funny screenplay, but I know I like Being the Ricardos more than most folks do. Since it's a mainstream, old-style Hollywood movie, I think it'll be a hit with voters. I do agree that King Richard will probably snare that fifth slot: I don't care for it but I get that it's a crowd-pleaser.
Personal preferences? Wild cards? Baby, what are you privately championing and/or wish voters would consider?
Baby Clyde: Before I answer that I have to say about the woeful Being The Ricardos -- your defense made me laugh so hard I spat out my drink. A truly terrible script that has both unnecessary flashbacks and flash forwards. A film that insists Judy Holliday was making films in 1942 and Columbia’s Rita Hayworth was signed to MGM. A tarted up made for TV movie from the 1990’s that would have starred Ann Jillian. Sorkin has become this era’s Neil Simon, i.e. a man whose name has become so synonymous with quality that the Academy has failed to realise how bad his work has become. In other words: Obviously it’s getting nominated!
The two screenplays I’ve had in my predictions since the very beginning are Mass, the exact sort of film that gets awarded with a sole Original Screenplay nomination, and Parallel Mothers which seemed a dead certainty early in the season but has been underperforming all over the place. Once it didn’t get chosen as Spain’s International Feature submission, I was convinced that Pedro Almodóvar was going to repeat his 2002 success and be rewarded with multiple nominations in the open fields. At one point I had it down for Picture, Director, Actress and Screenplay. I’m not a huge fan of his recent scripts, to be honest, since they often promise more than they deliver, but with its high profile, rave reviews, A List leading actress and the Academy’s new openness to subtitled films,I was certain it was going to register. Unfortunately, it seems likely they’ll stick to nominating the same old names for doing the bare minimum. I still have some hope it can get it I’m just not sure at whose expense.
Gabriel Mayora : Being the Ricardos should be out of the running here for the awkward talking heads framing device alone. Sure, the flashforwards give us an excuse to see national treasure Linda Lavin make something out of Sorkin's generic script--and Alia Shawkat is so good in the movie that I at least appreciated seeing her character years later since the movie does not seem very interested in her. The structure of the script is all over the place. It's a very watchable, entertaining movie, but I want a lot more from my Original Screenplay nominees.
I am as surprised as you are by the little recognition Parallel Mothers is getting, Baby. That is the movie I am championing to get a surprise nomination in this category. More realistically, I agree Mass has much better chances. A movie I keep wondering about is C'mon C'mon. Mike Mills is a former nominee for his previous film, 20th Century Women. I don't know whether members are watching it, but it is the type of movie that screams Best Original Screenplay.
What are your thoughts on an international film making it here? Will films like The Worst Person in the World or A Hero surprise?
Eric Blume: Now we can all be lovers again that we're more on the same page about Parallel Mothers. Baby, sounds like you're not a huge fan, but I think it's a gorgeous piece of writing, and I've enjoyed the more novelistic turn in Almodovar's writing. Things seem more layered now, and in his 70s he's obviously starting his dialogue and relationship with death given these two most recent pictures and moving beyond sexuality and his early themes. If it were up to me, his screenplay and Mike Mills' for C'mon, C'mon... and Farhadi's A Hero would all be in here, at the expense of all of the others. C'mon, C'mon questions all the things we're all questioning right now, and A Hero deconstructs lts own country's value on honor in a way that is contemporary, immediate, and complex. Those three scripts are all infinitely more interesting than, say, Licorice Pizza.
Baby Clyde: I’m a huge fan of early Almodóvar but the more critical acclaim he’s received in the last 20 years the less rewarding I’ve found his films. They always have loads to offer with interesting set ups and great performances but the stories themselves always feel half baked to me. They never seem to amount to anything. Having said that I would include Parallel Mothers over almost everything else we’ve mentioned so far.
Going through my list of favourite films of the past year nothing much that would count for this category comes to mind. I loved Red Rocket, but the screenplay runs out of steam towards the end and it’s Simon Rex’s performance that keeps it afloat rather than the writing. Mass is pretty great but feels exactly like it was adapted from a play, even if that isn’t actually the case. Which leaves me with a film that delighted me and is more inventive than everything else we’ve discussed. Give the award to Encanto I say.
Gabriel Mayora : Eric, those are all plausible choices. We have seen the writers' branch go their own way in previous years, choosing to single out certain films that are otherwise ignored by the rest of the Academy or, in some cases, relegated to the International Film category alone. It helps that Almodóvar, Fahardi, and Mills are all previous nominees.
Unlike Baby, I am a fan of Almodóvar's output in the post-Talk to Her stage of his career. As far as I'm concerned, the script for Volver is far stronger than the movie that won him the Oscar. With Parallel Mothers, we see him challenging himself, confronting the history of his own nation at a time when he has nothing to prove. It would be a thrill to see him singled out by the writers branch on nomination morning.
While I will always be rooting for Almodóvar, I'm choosing two films that made me forget the intellectual in me and reminded me why I love going to the movies. A lot of the discourse around Belfast centers on its autobiographical nature, yet it was Branagh's portrayal of two parents being forced out of their nation told through the perspective of a child too young to understand the decisions being made for him that left me sobbing throughout the credits. In a very personal and sentimental move, I'd vote for Belfast. And in a year that gave us two brilliant musical adaptations (In the Heights and West Side Story), it was an unexpected delight to see a brand new movie musical with a perfect screenplay that should be at the top of everyone's list. I'll simply quote Baby and say, "give the award to Encanto"!
Readers, what original screenplays are you rooting for at home? And where do you fall in these great divides?
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