Nathaniel's Final Oscar Nomination Predictions
Sunday, January 21, 2024 at 2:00PM
NATHANIEL R in Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress, Oscars (23), Punditry

by Nathaniel R

It's that time to finally stop over-analyzing and just share it! Long time readers might say "what over-analyzing? you've barely spoken!" but please know that I've still been over-analyzing in my head if not out loud. But let's do this quickly and move on that strange long deadspace between nominations and Hollywood's High Holy Night, the time period in which we hope to be more active and really dive into the Oscar contenders and our own personal awards. But before we get there: FINAL OSCAR NOMINATION PREDICTIONS...

BEST PICTURE
This category has never felt easier to predict. Exactly ten movies have had impeccable awards seasons thus far. Not eight or nine or eleven or twelve but ten, exactly. Since that's the exact width of the top category let's not belabor it so we can get right to the far more difficult predictions... 

With these ten films so thoroughly dominating precursor season it would be a major surprise if Saltburn, May December, Spider-Man Across the Spider-Verse, or anything else managed to slip in. One of them might of course but we're not seeing any chinks in the armor of the top ten. It's rare to have the PGA list repeat exactly at the Oscars but it feels most probable this time. 

BEST DIRECTOR
Here things get much tricker and potentially more shocking as recently discussed. Gerwig, Lanthimos, Nolan, Payne, and Scorsese landed DGA nods and helmed the five "biggest" films in terms of potential Oscar hauls. So they're "ahead", so to speak. But the Directors branch at the Academy has been known to be intermittently iconoclastic on occasion. So you never know. Plus the DGA five do not tell you the whole story of the season with breakout pictures from Celine Song (Past Lives), Cord Jefferson (American Fiction), and Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall), also doing very well in awards season. What's more the non-prolific genius Jonathan Glazer (The Zone of Interest) is enjoying his most universally acclaimed success to date. We'd feel better about Todd Haynes as a potential surprise (May December) if the director's branch had shown any interest in his cinema before now... but they don't "get" him, obviously and what's more the film is a contemporary story with a (purposeful) overlay of tabloid trashiness which cuts into the prestige factor of awarding a director who everyone understands is long overdue. I would be predicting Justine Triet (Anatomy of a Fall) if precursors had shown any interest in her as a director but her film is clearly viewed as a triumph of acting and writing first and foremost (whether or not that's fair is another story). In the end I think the branch members who lean toward art films and international films are going all in on Lanthimos and Glazer. So who is vulnerable? Greta Gerwig (if they turn their nose up with jealousy at her incredible success) or Alexander Payne (if they feel he had an easier lift than his competitors in terms of directing challenges... which he kinda did!). 

With Alexander Payne just as likely as Greta Gerwig, really.

 

BEST ACTRESS
There are years in which the five players get locked up real quick. This has not been one of those years, exactly, though it is also not that far off from it. So we're thinking it goes as expected like so...

Any lineup without Gladstone (sympathetic center of highly lauded film) and Stone (career best work from an Oscar winner) would be a jaw-dropper given the way the season has played out. The rest of the predicted quintet aren't quite locked up due to four potential spoilers in the house. While Margot Robbie feels vulnerable given Oscar's historical problem with seeing the worth in both grand movie star turns and in comic performances, we're not convinced that any of the potential replacements have enough momentum to unseat her; Annette Bening (Nyad) has been passed over for far better performances than her latest; Natalie Portman (May December) is in a film that has struggled getting traction and like Bening has an unlikeable* character; Greta Lee (Past Lives) headlined the sleeper hit indie of the year but her character isn't showy** and she never became a sure thing awards deal; Finally, Fantasia Barrino (Color Purple) sings beautifully but that's only enough for big deal awards traction in acting categories if they love the film overall (think Dreamgirls with its 8 nominations). 

* Thankfully playing an "unlikeable" character isn't half the hindrance it used to be for actresses winning their just kudos but it's still a vaguely general truth that it's easier for male actors to receive praise (and prizes) for playing abrasive or problematic people.

** This shouldn't be an issue if you do 'unshowy' beautifully BUT everyone knows that "Most" is often equated with "Best" --and not just among Academy voters but critics, too -- and it definitely helps to be some combo of both of those things. 

BEST ACTOR
The other lead category feels less ripe for an upset but you never know.

All but Wright have landed in all four major precursors (Globes, SAG, CCA, BAFTA) and Wright has strong momentum since American Fiction was a late release that caught on. There isn't a lot of wiggle room for the potential spoilers like Barry Keoghan (Saltburn), Andrew Scott (All of Us Strangers), and Leonardo DiCaprio (Killers of the Flower Moon) though any of the three might muscle their way in if their film happens to overperform on Tuesday. 

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
The supporting categories this year feel unusually volatile for this late in the game. This is probably because they have such slam-dunk frontrunners (whether or not one agrees with the impending coronations of Da'Vine Joy Randolph and Robert Downey Jr is moot; they're happening). That steamrolling effect creates a bit of a vacuum as to who can pick up the passion votes from the few people who aren't in those camps.

Supporting Actress

That's the prediction but numerous other combos could easily happen provided they include Blunt and Randolph as not one or two but SIX other women feel theoretically possible even this late in the game: Penelope Cruz (Ferrari) has Oscar history and is marvelous in her film but is the acting branch actually watching it? Only SAG responded; Rosamund Pike (Saltburn) is a joy to watch in a movie that might overperform though its "rise" might be an internet-only effect due to its streaming timing and the conversation tending to skew younger on social media; Jullianne Moore (May December) is an Oscar darling and has some precursor support though her character is off-putting which in a tightrace probably won't help; People aren't really talking about Erika Alexander (American Fiction) who is easily giving the best supporting performance in her film but "coattails" are a thing if a film and a lead campaign are hot which is the case here; Speaking of coattails the internet seems to believe that Sandra Hüller (The Zone of Interest) could parlay her sensational year (and Best Actress campaign) into a double nomination though I personally doubt it because it's rare to receive a supporting nomination in a non English language film and even rarer to win an acting nomination without the benefit of close-ups; And, finally, Rachel McAdams (Are You There God? It's Me Margaret) is a loveable longshot possibility if enough voting members watched her film. They probably didn't, though. Year after year its glaringly evident how few pictures actually get watched by the bulk of the voting members. That's why we're giving the fifth slot to America Ferrera, not just because of an effortful campaign to get her nominated but because Barbie has been ever-present all year.  

Supporting Actor

This is the category where I'm using the most pessimism in my predictions since this would be a weakish lineup given the options.

Recent Oscar history suggests that its very likely that both Dafoe and the even better Mark Ruffalo (Poor Things) score in tandem; they love a double in the supporting categories. That said the precursors have been indecisive about which one of them is stronger in the film and BAFTA, the last major precursor to vote, didn't include either of them! So we're giving the edge to Dafoe (who has made it in before with less buzz than he has this year) and Brown who has the advantage of good timing, a hot picture, and no internal competition. All that said the predictions that are starting to pop up for Dominic Sessa (The Holdovers) do not feel at all far-fetched. He has a leading role which always helps -- sigh -- in the supporting categories and he's a true natural onscreen. What's more his film is not divisive in the way, say, critical darling Charles Melton's (May December) is.

Any name beyond those eight would be a surprise though BAFTA did remind us that Jacob Elordi (Saltburn) and Paul Mescal (All of Us Strangers) are still floating around the outskirts of "the conversation". A nomination for Milo Machado Graner (Anatomy of a Fall), so memorable as the blind son of Sandra Huller in the year's most popular international picture, is the one true shocker that you can almost talk yourself into believing if you're not careful. 

You can see the full list of final predictions in every category here. Click on the category titles for the full chart of predictions and potential spoilers. The charts will come down Tuesday in the early AM for revisions to reflect the actual nominations.

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
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