I'll be live-blogging / live-tweeting the Golden Globes tonight but just from habitual need, not from any place of confidence, it's time for the predictions. I'm hiding EVERYTHING after the jump so that nobody will think to look here when the Globes are actually in session. Tricky!
COMEDY/MUSICAL FILMS
Best Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Will Win: The Big Short. It's peaking at just the right time. Which is why so many distributors still think of December as the be all and end all. When that timing works it works really well. But yeah, October and November work more often.
Should Win: Spy. Not only because it's a true comedy but because it's the funniest of the five
Could Win: Trainwreck could actually take if the Globes decided to make this year's ceremony double as an Amy Schumer toast. And if The Martian actually takes this, despite what a lot of people think as iffy categorization (didn't bother me because the tone was so surpassingly light I never felt in danger for anyone and it was fun to watch)
Thanks for Playing: Joy
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Will Win: Amy Schumer, Trainwreck
Should Win: Lily Tomlin, Grandma
Could Win: Jennifer Lawrence, Joy but it'd strictly be on starpower if she did. The Globes did prefer her to
Thanks for Playing Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van (who won't show because she never does) and Melissa McCarthy, Spy (who feels like someone who would've already won a Globe, right? but nope.)
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Musical or Comedy
Will & Should Win: Matt Damon, The Martian. Whatever objections some of the HFPA members may have had to the categorization of the film as a Comedy. It's hard to enjoy this central performance WITHOUT noticing its comic confidence. And they probably won't mind the dudebro humor since the chief competition is like that, too.
Could Win: Christian Bale or Steve Carell The Big Short. If either of them win, this filmi is going to get a lot of Oscar nods on Thursday. Yes the HFPA and AMPAS have no overlap in members but it will mean that Big Short love is runnning wild through Hollywood.
Thanks for playing: Al Pacino in Danny Collins and Mark Ruffalo in Infinitely Polar Bear
Best Animated Feature Film
Will & Should Win: Inside Out
Could Win: Shaun the Sheep Movie if they're feeling really British
Thanks for Playing: Anomalisa, The Good Dinosaur, The Peanuts Movie
DRAMA FILMS
I LOVE JAMEY SHERIDAN IN SPOTLIGHT (and no one speaks of him!)
Best Motion Picture, Drama
Will Win: Spotlight
Should Win: Carol or Mad Max Fury Road
Thanks for Playing: Room and The Revenant
Best Director – Motion Picture
Will Win: Ridley Scott, The Martian
Should Win: Todd Haynes, Carol or George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Could Win: Alejandro González Iñárritu, The Revenant if they want to make it up to him for NOT giving him the prize for Birdman or Tom McCarthy, Spotlight if that's their huge margin in Best Picture (but I don't suspect it will be even if it does win)
Thanks for Playing: N/A. They're all in the running for this one. That's just how we like awards shortlists.
Saoirse Ronan -- will she hear her name called?
Best Actress in a Motion Picture, Drama
Will Win???: Though most pundits have long since anointed Brie Larson in Room as the winner of this prize AND the Oscar, I'm going out on a limb predicting it'll be Saoirse Ronan for Brooklyn who has all the qualities they love in a winner (though so does Brie so it's a toss up.
Should Win: Oh hell no. Not going there. I love all five of these performances and I'm still trying to pick my Best Actress nominees and medalists. I'll announce before the Oscar nods, though. I promise.
Could Win: If there's one true shocker in the top prizes might it be Alicia Vikander for The Danish Girl if they want to lay a claim on her as both the "IT GIRL" and THEIR GIRL for future love, too
Thanks for Playing: Cate Blanchett and Rooney Mara in Carol & Therese. We're calling it that because of the stupid insistence people have about saying films can only have one lead. IT ISN'T TRUE. NEVER HAS BEEN. But even if Carol & Therese wins the top prize... The Globes will spread the wealth here.
Will LEO win gold for suffering?
Best Actor in a Motion Picture, Drama
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant (11 previous Globe nominations with 2 lead actor wins)
Could Win: Bryan Cranston, Trumbo (they do enjoy him - 6 nominations already)
Should Win: Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
Thanks for Playing: Eddie Redymane, The Danish Girl and Will Smith, Concussion
Ava is always watching you.
Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture
Will Win: Alicia Vikander, Ex Machina
Should Win: Vikander is the best in the category, but I'd probably vote Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs so I didn't have to feel hypocritical about my Category Fraud soapboxing. Seems like a three lead film to me, in no small part because it's basically only got 3 speaking characters. But I'm still considering arguments about Oscar Isaac.
Could Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight because every once in a blue corn moon the Globes are VERY surprising. On the other hand she's not much of a schmoozer so she probably belongs in the next section...
Thanks for Playing: Jane Fonda, Youth and Helen Mirren, Trumbo
If Mark Rylance wins here he is surely a lock for Oscar gold. But will he? The Globes are occasionally unconcerned with locks.
Best Supporting Actor in a Motion Picture
Will Win: I genuinely think this is a five way race. No really, I do. But I'm throwing caution to the wind and saying Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation primarily because they love him (5 previous noms with a win) and he's charming and the figurehead for a movie that some people care about a lot (not I!)
Should Win: Paul Dano, Love and Mercy... I personally consider him a lead but I wouldn't have qualms about voting for him here for the win since he has to share the role with John Cusack
Could Win: Though I'm going out on a limb with my prediction it could just as easily be Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies or Sylvester Stallone, Creed
Thanks for Playing: Michael Shannon, 99 Homes but who knows -- isn't it fascinating that they didn't choose even one actor from ANY of their Best Picture nominees in this category.
A Hateful rehearsal... somehow they didn't cut the fat from its 3 hour running time.
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Will Win: Tough call but I think i'm guessing Charles Randolph, Adam McKay, The Big Short
Could Win: On the other hand Tom McCarthy, Josh Singer, are also super good bets for Spotlight. And frankly both of these films could really use this win if they want to look like the Oscar frontrunner for Best Picture.
Should Win: Haven't quite decided but can we congratulate Emma Donoghue, again for adapting her own novel Room so well to the screen. Remember the last time a female novelist did that and the Oscars shunned her (Gone Girl *cough*) -- hoping Oscar don't play like that again.
Thanks for Playing: Aaron Sorkin's Steve Jobs and Quentin Tarantino's The Hateful Eight will both easily win some votes as screenwriters who carry their own celebrity and thus fanbase with them. But my guess is people are going to be too wowed by the verbal sobering news assault of Big Short of Spotlight to care
Best Original Score – Motion Picture
Will Win: Ennio Morricone, The Hateful Eight. But I'm not confident about that prediction.
Should Win: Daniel Pemberton, Steve Jobs. But I'm not confident about that preference.
Could Win: Carter Burwell, Carol. But I'm not confident that it's in second place.
Thanks for Playing: Alexandre Desplat, The Danish Girl and Ryuichi Sakamoto, Alva Noto, Bryce Dessner, The Revenant seem out of the "win" race to me. But I'm not confident about that proclamation.
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
Will Win: "One Kind of Love," Love and Mercy
Should Win: "Simple Song #3," Youth (shut up. I love it)
Could Win: "See You Again," Furious 7
Thanks for Playing: "Love Me Like You Do," Fifty Shades of Grey or "Writings on the Wall," Spectre
SON OF SAUL -- is it on the way to the Oscar or are people overestimating it. It is, in its way, a tough sit.
Best Foreign Language Film
Will Win: Son of Saul, Hungary
Should Win: Mustang, France/Turkey
Could Win: The Brand New Testament, Belgium, France and Luxembourg
Thanks for Playing: The Club, Chile and The Fencer, Estonia/Finland
CARE TO SHARE YOUR PREDICTIONS?