... unless I change my mind Sunday night.
Best Actress and Best Supporting Actor
In both of these categories after much tinkering, jigsaw reconfigurations, and what ifs I said to myself something I rarely say to myself even though I shouldn't be so stingy with these words "you're overthinking it". So I'm going for no surprises rather than surprises in both categories. I do however strongy believe that if someone misses in Best Actress it's either Portman (yes really) or Streep and the replacements is Annette Bening (who should be competing for the win but we can't always have nice things, now can we?). If I have a last minute change of heart, I think I'm going to predict a surprise Portman snub and a Bening nomination. Streep seems most vulnerable of the top five in theory (not a lot of excitement about her film or performance... just her being Streep and that awesome Golden Globe speech) but with so much support still for so many women, her default-to-Streep advantage will probably come into play.
In supporting actor I was toying with a Ben Foster surprises scenario, because even after the Globe win and BAFTA nomination I don't totally buy the Aaron Taylor-Johnson buzz. I've resisted predicting Lucas Hedges most of the year (the only man in that lineup who I think is vulnerable) because of his age. Though he'll be the 8th youngest male acting nominee in supporting EVER at age 20, I think the Best Picture lock-up for his vehicle and Casey Affleck's likely #1 placements on a huge number of ballots should give him just the boost he needs.
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