'April Foolish' Oscar Predix In All Categories But...
Tuesday, April 24, 2012 at 11:31AM
NATHANIEL R in Costume Design, Directors, Oscars (12), Screenplays

...Best Actress.

I know. I know. I'm like those annoying repetitive "coming up on _______" interstitials which tell you what you're about to see about 20 times before you actually see it. But these Oscar charts are lots of work, y'hear? So don't only read the Best Actress page (yes, it's the most visited Oscar page. Always). Read them all. There's not much text yet (time constraints but the charts are up. Wheeeee

Here are twelve pressing questions about the five new Oscar chart pages for this film year

The first teaser poster for Les Miz embraces the original stage sensation logo and promises "THE MOTION PICTURE EVENT OF 2012". Can it deliver on all this promise?

BEST DIRECTOR 

• Can Tom Hooper win a second Best Director Oscar with film number three? That seems unlikely even if Les Misérables pushes all the Oscar buttons; multiple director wins in tiny time frames are not unprecedented, just rare.
• Or am I barking up the wrong tree and is it Kathryn Bigelow who'll be gold hunting again with the Osama hunting actioner Zero Dark Thirty?
• Don't you think Ben Affleck becomes more of a Clint Jr. threat each year? Can he find a place with his true story political thriller Argo?
• Can David Cronenberg, a director's director if there ever was one, ever find a way to win Oscar traction? It's not like outre auteurs are always ignored.   

BEST SCREENPLAYS 

• My statistics as an Oscar pundit over the years prove that Original Screenplay is one of the toughest categories to predict a year early. So much depends on critical response. Do you think I'm on the right track here with Brave, Hyde Park on Hudson, Imogene, The Master and Seven Psychopaths or is that too many potential critical darlings in one category?

•What do you make of Life of Pi's chances in Adapted? Or any category for that matter. 

MUCH MORE AFTER THE JUMP

BEST VISUALS 

Captain America, Iron Man 2 and Thor didn't exactly light up the Oscar technical branch fires but can The Avengers turn things around?

• Have any of you read this amazing bitchy New York Times piece on the fashion world's reaction to The Hunger Games. Here's a sample...

Sally Hershberger, the celebrity hairstylist and frequent collaborator with the photographer Annie Leibovitz... As she saw it, the on-screen outfits looked “clownish,” like things you would see at a “costume party in Venice.” “It’s not a ‘Blade Runner’ moment,” Ms. Hershberger said. “This is not a fashion film. It looks too cheap.”

...Paul Wilmot, the public relations guru who has worked for designers like Oscar de la Renta and Calvin Klein, simply called the film’s costumes “hideola.” (This did not appear to be a compliment.)

Can costume designer Judianna Markovsky get nominated anyway? I mean isn't The Hunger Games too big to fully ignore? Won't it have to end up as a nominee somewhere? 

• Will Emmanuel Lubezki ever win the Oscar? He might have another shot this year with Gravity (in which he shares Cinematography duties but history teaches us not to hope for a full mantle for one of the true greats. Ugh, those last two losses (Children of Men, The Tree of Life) still just sting.

Spielberg films aren't complete without John Williams scoresBEST AURALS

• It's been decades since John Williams won Best Original Score but can he turn things around with Steven Spielberg's Lincoln? Like Meryl Streep in Best Actress Williams seems to have been punished (as far as winning goes) by barely having to lift a finger to get nominated, whether deserving or not. I haven't done the math but I believe he's got the best ratio of work to nominations of all time in any category. He's been nominated in virtually every eligible calendar year and sometimes twice over.

• Oh Original Song, you always troublesome endangered Oscar species. Will they cancel you altogether this year? You know Oscar's music branch despises this category, continually undermining their own craft. In what way will they self sabotage this year? To quote the late great Amy Winehouse... ♪ what kind of fuckery is this? ♫ 

ANIMATED FILMS 

• Pixar experienced its first year without a Best Animated Feature nomination last year when Cars 2 crashed critically. Will Brave be an easy return to glory?

• If not... which animated film is most likely to put up a strong fight: Frankenweenie? Pirates?  

previously posted / discussed PICTURE | ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS still TBA FOREIGN CHARTS (Will throw the submission theory charts up once Cannes wraps) and BEST ACTRESS (This will go up this weekend. It must!)  

Article originally appeared on The Film Experience (http://thefilmexperience.net/).
See website for complete article licensing information.