by Nathaniel R
Expecting a high nomination count for "First Man" even if it misses Best PictureRunning out of time we are! So here are the final predictions for six more categories!
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
We've been over and over this one in our brains, trying to figure out that fifth spot (we don't believe, as some panicky folks do, that Regina King is in any danger of missing for Beale Street). In the end we're defaulting to Claire Foy in First Man who's been there all along. Primarily because she's been there all along and these things have a way of sticking if you're considered solidly in for months, even if you start losing steam toward the end of the season. We expect First Man to have a high nomination count despite predicting it to miss Best Picture and Claire Foy has remained visible all season. Sorry, Margot Robbie...
Meanwhile we're FURIOUS that Elizabeth Debicki in Widows never gained any traction this year since she should have been EASILY battling it out with Regina King in the big leagues. We blame critics for being the foot soldiers of Category Fraud and supporting The Favourite's blockage of this category from real and just stellar supporting options like Debicki.
A nomination for "Burning" would be a first on two levels -- first for South Korea and first honors for Lee Chang-dong. But we don't think it's happening. GrrrrrFOREIGN FILMS
This is a tough call because the category feels too good to be true! We've felt confident about predicting Mexico (Roma), Cold War (Poland), and Japan (Shoplifters) for sometime now but for the other two spots it's tricky: South Korea's critical darling Burning and Lebanon's visceral Capernaum, both from respected filmmakers (Lee Chang-dong and Nadine Labaki) who've never been honored despite previous Oscar submissions in this category, seem to be common predictions for punditry. If all five of those films are nominated foreign-language film will be the single greatest category, qualitatively, at the Oscar ceremony this year! We think, though, that Oscar is likely to default to either Germany (Never Look Away) or Denmark (The Guilty), two countries they respond to very frequently which both have pictures that are well liked and less difficult than South Korea or Lebanon's entries. Tragically we think Burning is going to miss and, flipping a coin, we're choosing Never Look Away as its replacement.
Predicting that Alexandre Desplat gets his 10th nomination for "Isle of Dogs"
SCORE
The two most lauded scores of the year are arguably If Beale Street Could Talk and First Man and we are betting that they both make it in with Alexandre Desplat (an Oscar regular) to score (heheh) with his whimsical and deliciously eccentric score to Isle of Dogs. We'd be surprised if any of those three missed but from there it's a tougher call. The Globes honored Mary Poppins Returns and A Quiet Place and they're both obviously strong contenders though we think only A Quiet Place will prevail and Poppins will have to make do with a Song nomination. For the fifth slot it's a toss up. BAFTA honored BlacKkKlansman and if Oscar follows suit Terence Blanchard will receive Blanchard received a nomination at BAFTA. But we think Ludwig Göransson's popular score for Black Panther will get the last spot. All that said, Score is notoriously hard to predict so watch Mary Poppins Returns, The Ballad of Buster Scruggs, and Ready Player One all make the nominations instead. Whoops
SONG
One of the few categories that already has a locked-up winner. That'd be "Shallow" from A Star is Born. The other certain nominees feel like "All the Stars" from Black Panther, and "The Place Where Lost Things Go" from Mary Poppins Returns. From there it's anyone's bet. Oscar sometimes responds to comedy songs and if they do "When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs For Wings" from Buster Scruggs might show up, or Ralph Breaks the Internet's Disney approved self-mockery with "A Place Called Slaughter Race" but we're doubtful for various reasons. "Revelation" from Boy Erased has been pushed hard and works with its film well, but in the end it's repetitive solemn nature might make it a less exciting prospect for ballots. There's always the chance that Mary Poppins gets two nominations but we're sticking with our December predicts and assuming Oscar defaults to the anthemic RBG song "I'll Fight" from category mainstay Diane Warren and "Girl in the Movies" from Dumplin' because the film doubles as a Dolly Parton tribute.
SOUND MIXING
We have to look at the Cinema Audio Society for clues here and then parse it with our own knowledge of Oscar history. The CAS nominated A Quiet Place, A Star is Born, Bohemian Rhapsody, Black Panther, and First Man but they have a whole separate category for animated films so its possible that Oscar will include one (and if they do we're expecting either Incredibles 2 or Spider-Verse to be that spoiler). We think it extremely odd that Roma would miss a Sound mixing category because its soundscape is something else, but on the other hand the Oscar's sound community has been known to prize bombast over amazing design so its no sure thing. The CAS nominees rarely transfer wholly intact (they're usually 3/5 or 4/5) and Oscar likes musicals a lot so we have to think Mary Poppins Returns has a good shot here. But this is so confusing! Roma or Black Panther or Mary Poppins? Since the CAS nominee that often gets dumped is a superhero film (recent examples include Doctor Strange, Wonder Woman, Iron Man 3, and Guardians of the Galaxy) we're betting on Black Panther getting the chop and Roma overperforming while Mary Poppins Returns underperforms.
Hanging on a limb to predict this: a first nomination for the Mission Impossible series
SOUND EDITING
Oscar's sound branch inexplicably has two categories where other disciplines (with myriad distinct elements and skills within them) have to settle for one. They also don't do a good job justifying having two categories as they often nominate similar lists for the two prizes, the most they ever seem to stray is a two film separation which we're banking on this year due to so many music films in play. You have to assume if a film has a shot at Sound Mixing it will also have a shot at sound editing, though music-heavy films typically perform better in sound mixing. Action films typically perform slightly better in sound editing. So let's say A Quiet Place, First Man, and A Star is Born as the category crossovers and sub out Roma and Bohemian Rhapsody for two action films: Black Panther and, going way out on a limb here: Mission: Impossible - Fallout. Why is that a limb you ask? It's because this series has never been Oscar nominated in any capacity. Isn't that weird?
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