by Nathaniel R
While both Best Actress and Best Actor (recently discussed here and here) appear to have furious volatile competitions for the anxiety-provoking fifth slots, is the same true in the Supporting categories?
SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Since the beginning of the SAG awards in the mid 90s, no leading performer has ever won the Oscar without first being recognized by SAG. The same is not true in the supporting categories. In other words, Aunjanue Ellis' fierce mother turn in King Richard is not out of the race for the gold. We suspect that SAG (mostly) settled Supporting Actress despite her absence, and that Cate Blanchett in Nightmare Alley will prove to be a fluke (Oscar voters have never been that obsessed with femme fatales ignoring many classic performances of that ilk over the decades). Despite feeling like the race is settled, we admit to biting our nails to the quick (figuratively) about Ruth Negga's stellar hypnotic work in Passing if only because the film doesn't appear to have industry support in other efforts so she is in the always nerve-wracking position of "would be the sole nominee from her film". Do you think the new chart is accurate or would you play around with the order?
SUPPORTING ACTOR
The absence of Belfast's men from SAG (outside of "Outstanding Cast") was the biggest collective surprise of SAG nominations last week. But does it mean anything in the grand scheme of things given that Focus' campaign for Belfast has been very steady for months. Hinds has the more traditional role (sickly kind grandfather) while Dornan has become the 'face' of the campaign, which often pays off with Oscar voters. But precursors have been kinder to household name stars Bradley Cooper (Licorice Pizza) and Ben Affleck (Tender Bar). Will Oscar follow suit? We think yes and no simultaneously. But beyond Troy Kotsur, Kodi Smit-McPhee, and Jared Leto a lot of combinations for the other two spots feel vaguely plausible including an out of left field possibility (but not really since they're in Best Picture frontrunners) as Chris so brilliantly pointed out when investigating what type of performances "surprise" with nominations.
POST-SAG UPDATED CHARTS
Index | Picture | Actress | Actor | Supporting Actress | Supporting Actor