Oscar Punditry: Who Will Be Our Surprise Acting Nominee and Who Could Still Be Snubbed?

By: Christopher James

Kristen Stewart looking for where her SAG nomination went.The SAG Nominations sure threw a lot of people’s Oscar predictions upside down. One can always expect SAG to throw in a major curveball or two (call it the Sarah Silverman in I Smile Back effect). However, few could’ve predicted that former frontrunner Kristen Stewart would be snubbed for her role as Princess Diana in Spencer. It was almost as surprising to see Aunjanue Ellis miss for King Richard, especially when the movie made it into Outstanding Cast!

As surprising as it all was, we now have a lot of answers (rather than guesswork) as to who the major players are in Oscar's acting races since the Globes have already announced their winners, the Critics Choice nominations have long been out, and we've also seen the BAFTA longlist. We can use math and past Oscar patterns with these precursors to determine who the acting nominees might be this year...

What Is The Distribution of Oscar Nominated Performances?

There are two ways to look at this using just historical signals from SAG, Golden Globes (GG) and Critics Choice (CC) nominations.

The first way would be to look at the 360 Oscar nominated performances from 2003 - 2020 (when all three precursors nominated at least 5 nominees). How many precursors did each nominee earn?

This above breakdown is roughly consistent year over year. Last year, there was only a slight variation, as all fourteen performances that earned all three precursors also received Oscar nominations. Only one performance with one precursor (Paul Raci - Sound of Metal) and one performance with zero precursors (Lakeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah) were nominated for an Oscar.

The second way one can figure out the potential distribution of nominated performances would be to look at the success rate from 2003 - 2020. For example, 265 performances showed up at all three major precursors. Of those 265 performances, 242 earned Oscar nominations. This means there is an 89% success rate for actors who did not miss at any precursor.

Looking at how this method affects the nominee distribution, it looks nearly identical to the first method. This predicts there will be one major snub from those 13 performances that showed up at SAG, Golden Globes and Critics Choice. So who will that be?

Who Could Be The Shocking Snub?

Here are the 23 people who earned SAG, Golden Globe and Critics Choice nominations, but then failed to receive an Oscar nomination:

• Movies with No Other Oscar Nominations
  • Angelina Jolie - A Mighty Heart (2007)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar (2011)
  • Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin (2011)
  • Marion Cotillard - Rust and Bone (2012)
  • Daniel Bruhl - Rush (2013)
  • Jennifer Aniston - Cake (2014)
  • Michael Shannon - 99 Homes (2015)
  • Hong Chau - Downsizing (2017)
  • Timothee Chalamet - Beautiful Boy (2018)
  • Jennifer Lopez - Hustlers (2019)
    
    
• Movies With Some Nominations, But Not Best Picture
  • Russell Crowe - Cinderella Man (2005)
  • Ryan Gosling - Lars and the Real Girl (2007)
  • John Hawkes - The Sessions (2012)
  • Emma Thompson - Saving Mr. Banks (2013)
  • Jake Gyllenhaal - Nightcrawler (2014)
  • Helen Mirren - Trumbo (2015)
  • James Franco - The Disaster Artist (2017)
  • Emily Blunt - Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
    
    
• Performances from Best Picture Nominees
  • Paul Giamatti - Sideways (2004)
  • Leonardo DiCaprio - The Departed (2006)
  • Mila Kunis - Black Swan (2010)
  • Tom Hanks - Captain Phillips (2013)
  • Amy Adams - Arrival (2016)

This year, 13 people have earned nominations from all three major awards bodies to date:

• Best Actress
  • Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
  • Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
  • Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
  • Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
    
    
• Best Actor
  • Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
  • Will Smith - King Richard
  • Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick... Boom!
    
    
• Best Supporting Actress
  • Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
  • Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
  • Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
    
    
• Best Supporting Actor
  • Troy Kotsur - CODA
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

Since Supporting Actor only has two performances that have made a clean sweep of the precursors, it’s safe to bet that Kodi Smit-McPhee and Troy Kotsur will receive Oscar nominations. They also star in likely Best Picture nominees, which helps.

Occasionally, a Best Picture nominee will miss on a key “lock” of an acting nomination. However, for the purposes of this exercise, let’s assume that it will come from a movie that will either not show up at the Oscars or only show up in a few categories. This means the following performances are shakiest in terms of guaranteed Oscar play:

• Jessica Chastain - The Eyes of Tammy Faye
• Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
• Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
• Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth

After earning three SAG nominations, House of Gucci and Lady Gaga feel even safer than they did. If Denzel Washington can earn a nomination for the little seen Roman J. Israel Esq. then he seems primed to rack up a tenth nomination for The Tragedy of Macbeth. Finally, Olivia Colman is on a hot streak with the Oscars. Never bet against a hot streak. This means, if there is a big snub on Oscar morning, it would be Jessica Chastain for The Eyes of Tammy Faye.

Who Could Earn a Surprise Nomination?

Since 2003, there have been 19 performances that have earned an Oscar nomination without any precursor nominations from SAG, Golden Globes or the Critics Choice.

• Coattails from Best Picture Nominees

  • Alan Alda - The Aviator (2004)

  • Clint Eastwood - Million Dollar Baby (2004)

  • Max Von Sydow - Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close (2011)

  • Jacki Weaver - Silver Linings Playbook (2012)

  • Jonah Hill - The Wolf of Wall Street (2013)

  • Bradley Cooper - American Sniper (2014)

  • Lesley Manville - Phantom Thread (2017)

  • Marina de Tavira - Roma (2018)

  • LaKeith Stanfield - Judas and the Black Messiah (2020)

• Coattails from Late Breaking Contenders

  • Djimon Hounsou - In America (2003)

  • Shohreh Aghdashloo - House of Sand and Fog (2003)

  • Maggie Gyllenhaal - Crazy Heart (2009)

  • Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy (2011)

  • Laura Dern - Wild (2014)

• Anomalies

  • William Hurt - A History of Violence (2005)

  • Laura Linney - The Savages (2007)

  • Tommy Lee Jones - In The Valley of Elah (2007)

  • Michael Shannon - Revolutionary Road (2008)

  • Javier Bardem - Biutiful (2010)

Yes, anomalies happen, but they are few and far between. Other than Michael Shannon, they also all came from previous Oscar nominees or winners. The best way to predict a surprise nominee is to look at the Best Picture contenders. Specifically, we should look at the supporting cast. Of the 14 coattails nominees, only three were in lead acting categories. More often than not, a big leading performance will get precursors and they will take a key supporting player with them (Reese Witherspoon takes Laura Dern in for Wild, Leonardo DiCaprio takes Jonah Hill in for The Wolf of Wall Street).

This year, here are some supporting performances that have not earned precursor nominations from SAG, Golden Globes or the Critics Choice. These are all from potential Best Picture nominees.

• Jesse Plemons - The Power of the Dog

• Judi Dench - Belfast

• Mike Faist - West Side Story

• David Alvarez - West Side Story

• Jon Bernthal - King Richard

• Saniyya Sidney - King Richard

• Rebecca Ferguson - Dune

• Harriet Sansom Harris - Licorice Pizza

• Robin de Jesus - tick, tick… Boom!

• Marlee Matlin - CODA

• Meryl Streep - Don’t Look Up

• Jessie Buckley - The Lost Daughter

• Nina Arianda - Being the Ricardos

Let’s winnow this down a bit further. Which of these performances will also have a likely lead acting frontrunner? This leaves Plemons, Bernthal, Sidney, de Jesus, Buckley and Arianda. All of these could be potential out-of-nowhere surprises. So how do you pick? Trust your gut and look at the category landscape. Best Supporting Actor appears to be the least firmed up of all the acting categories. So it’s likely the surprise can come here. This is good news for Plemons, Bernthal and de Jesus. From here, ask yourself which movie has the most buzz. From those three, The Power of the Dog stands out. This leads me to believe that Jesse Plemons could be a surprise nominee this year.

My Predictions

• Best Actress
  • Olivia Colman - The Lost Daughter
  • Nicole Kidman - Being the Ricardos
  • Lady Gaga - House of Gucci
  • Kristen Stewart - Spencer
  • Rachel Zegler - West Side Story
    
    
• Best Actor
  • Javier Bardem - Being the Ricardos
  • Benedict Cumberbatch - The Power of the Dog
  • Will Smith - King Richard
  • Denzel Washington - The Tragedy of Macbeth
  • Andrew Garfield - Tick, Tick... Boom!
    
    
• Best Supporting Actress
  • Caitriona Balfe - Belfast
  • Ariana DeBose - West Side Story
  • Kirsten Dunst - The Power of the Dog
  • Aunjanue Ellis - King Richard
  • Ruth Negga - Passing
    
    
• Best Supporting Actor
  • Bradley Cooper - Licorice Pizza
  • Jamie Dornan - Belfast
  • Troy Kotsur - CODA
  • Jessie Plemons - The Power of the Dog
  • Kodi Smit-McPhee - The Power of the Dog

How did the SAG Awards affect your predictions? Let us know in the comments below.

Comments

[Mike in Canada]

That would be a PHENOMENAL supporting actor category, the likes of which we so rarely see.

[whunk (he/him)]

I still think Gaga could be snubbed.

[Jésus Alonso]

the clear "surprise" nomination might be Penelope Cruz... Parallel Mothers probably suffered of the late release and buzz about Drive My Car breaking (we all know how "eager" are people to read subtitles), but while the peak of PM has become too late to make her break through the BAFTA longlist and the Globes (SAG was difficult to happen), the LAFCA and the NSFC (plus the Volpi Cup) make her performance a must of the year, in terms to check out, so she's going to be checked out by the AMPAS members.

While I think Parallel Mothers won't be nominated for anything - but should - at this point I can't really discard any outcome with it. It wouldn't be the first time that some film was suddenly vindicated by AMPAS with one or more above the line nomination... or even win.

[Shmeebs]

Agreed re Cruz. She’s in a great position to break in, as Cotillard did in 2014.

Well researched piece that I enjoyed reading, but think it makes more sense to do after BAFTA.

BAFTA often can give us more information, like Manville in 2017 or Oldman in 2011.

[Gallavich]

In best actress I can't see any surprise coming. They will be the four biopics+Colman. I know we're all hoping for Cruz but the Bafta exclusion make me think her possibility is faded, but who knows.

In my fantasy they're going full on tick tick Boom so is nominated in diretictng, Sup acotr (de Jesus), Sup actress (Hudgens). It will never happen...

[andrewfraser]

I think Chastain is the most vulnerable to be snubbed in Best Actress. It's a baity performance but people do not care about the film are there are contenders on the bubble that appear in Best Picture contenders (Zegler, Haim) or will have some passion (Cruz).

I could also see a surprise Best Actor nomination for Bradley Cooper in Nightmare Alley. I've seen quite a few high profile people really praise the performance, and as more people get around to watching the film, I think he could gain traction. We could see him miss supporting and be nominated in lead.

Alternatively, we could see a surprise nomination for Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, but for Don't Look Up instead of Nightmare Alley. I think this is less likely but stranger things have happened. I definitely think Buckley or Johnson could also make a bid in Supporting for The Lost Daughter.

I also agree Plemons has a great chance to surprise in Supporting Actor, if Power of the Dog continues it's great run.

[Frank Zappa]

Alternatively, we could see a surprise nomination for Cate Blanchett in Supporting Actress, but for Don't Look Up instead of Nightmare Alley.

I actually suggested this recently, which is odd since I haven't seen Don't Look Up yet. But I've heard she's an MVP. I loved her in Nightmare Alley, but she did anything but support, she dominated and took focus. Also I have a feeling Academy voters are going to view Nightmare Alley as a crafts rather acting showcase.

[Peggy Sue]

I would die of happiness if Plemons gets nominated. He's the real supporting performance in the movie

It would be interesting to put into a blender all the names nominated for major awards during the last fifteen years or so. I've got the feeling that they're the same names everywhere like we're in an eternal loop (or circle jerk).

[cal roth]

I think Cruz is getting the "Biutiful anomaly" nomination: Acclaimed/undeniable foreign-language performance by a familiar actor in a respected auteur movie.
Bardem, Cotillard, Banderas, Huppert...

[Peggy Sue]

Isn't Tammy Faye a sure thing for that atrocious makeup?

[Mr Ripley79]

GaGa and Leto out Hinds and Cruz in,Blanchett out for Ellis.

[Mr Ripley79]

A bit of statistics I researched in the last 50 years no Actress lineup has ever included 4 biopic performances.

RE Kidman winning that would be three previous winners in a row taking their 2nd Oscar that has also never happened in the last 50 years.

[Fadhil]

No snub this year pls!
Surprises only:
Bradley Cooper in Actor
TESSA THOMPSON in Actress
Jesse Plemons in Supporting Actor
Jessie Buckley in Supporting Actress

[Edward L.]

I agree with Shmeebs: BAFTA can add to the picture. But yes, some excellent analysis here - a great read!

Re: who could be a surprise acting nominee: I won't be staggered if Daniel Craig shows up for No Time to Die. It's his fifth and final performance in an iconic role, he has so many moods and emotions to deliver - romance, anger, cynicism, bravery, friendship, fear, tenderness, love, and more - and he nails every moment, every line reading, every gesture. It's a towering performance. And I suspect loads of voters will have seen it.

I also think Ana de Armas is in with a shout. There's the BAFTA longlist appearance. More than that, there's the work in the film itself. It's a brilliant supporting performance!

[DAVID S]

HOUSE OF GUCCI doesn't particularly *feel* like a biopic to me, though?

No one really says, "oh the Patrizia Reggiani movie?" the way they would to Tammy Faye, Prince Diana, Aretha Franklin &Lucille Ball

[HowdareU]

Best Actress: I still think Gaga will be snubbed (not surprisingly, for me) & Stewart might be, but I'd keep her instead of Kidman. Zegler could be replaced by a very surprise yet deserved nomination for Renate Reinsve. It'd be cool a line-up like that:
Olivia Colman
Penelope Cruz
Kristen Stewart
Renate Reinsve
Jessica Chastain (winner)
Best Actor : Cumberbatch is my winner. Garfield is brilliant. Have no idea what Smith is doing here, KR is at best a standard film with okay performances; Washington is an Oscar darling but I'd replace him for Simon Rex & Bardem seems like an odd choice. My line-up:
Peter Dinklage
Benedict Cumberbatch
Adam Driver -( Annette )- now, that'd be a cool nod.
Simon Rex
Andrew Garfield

Best Supporting Actress: Dunst is my winner. I'd replace Ellis for Dowd.
Caitriona Balfe
Ariana DeBose
Kirsten Dunst
Ann Dowd
Ruth Negga

Best Supporting Actor: Smit-McPhee is my winner. Cooper feels almost like an extended cameo. From Belfast I'd go with Hinds as well and I'd replace Plemmons for Isaacs (Mass).
Ciarán Hinds
Jamie Dornan
Troy Kotsur
Jason Isaacs
Kodi Smit-McPhee

[Yavor]

I need Cate Blanchett to get in for Nightmare Alley. Ultimately, Dr. Lilith Ritter is the major driving force in that story (things end the way they do because of her) that's far more fascinating and worthy of recognition than supporting mom roles in feel good sports movie number 276510474234.

SAG got it right.

Oscar can do one better if it kicks Caitriona Balfe's Ma out of the picture and make room for whichever performance that's more fascinating and not a Ma.

Also, the MVPs in Don't Look Up are Rylance and Blanchett. Meryl wasn't as funny as I hoped she would be.

[V.]

I really want Chastain in and Gaga out.

[Reginaskguy06]

I hope Jessica Chastain makes it I loved her so much in that role and felt drawn to her character I saw Nicole Kidman as Lucille Ball and still don’t understand the buzz.

[rrrich7]

Can anyone tell me, please, how to see Parallel Mothers, CODA or Eyes of Tammy Faye? Without going to a theater. Am I reaching for the stars here? (Meryl in The Devil Wears Prada).

[Drew]

@rrrich7, Parallel Mothers is the only one you have to see in the theatre, CODA is on Apple TV + and Tammy Faye is on HBOMax.

[Deborah Lipp]

The intensity of the mathematics makes me very happy.