Who is now in the lead for Best Actress?
Thursday, January 13, 2022 at 1:00PM
by Nathaniel R and Team Experience!
The morning after and we're still reeling from the SAG nominations. But in particular what it's done to presumptions about the Best Actress category. I've updated the Oscar chart but after a brief flirtation with Nicole Kidman as #1, I suddenly felt the urge to give that spot to Olivia Colman in The Lost Daughter. Is this insane? Not exactly though it is probably the common pundit psychosis of "overthinking it". My pundit brain began imagining that all the biopic ladies are getting in each other's way with their elaborate makeovers and mimicry (or lack thereof) and through the chaos emerges the true stealth battle of all along: superstar Lady Gaga vs revered thespian Olivia Colman.
Lady Gaga is also playing a real person, like the biopic ladies, but Patrizia Reggiani isn't a famous celebrity being recreated by another famous celebrity as is the usual draw of these things. So the traditional biopic advantage (aka default love for "what a transformation!") doesn't quite apply in Gaga's case. In the end given Olivia Colman mania and Gaga's film having more detractors, is it so outlandish to presume a quick second win could very well happen. So I polled the team, hoping that a crystal clear hive mind pundit choice would emerge. Whoops! Though there is a hesistant "consensus choice" opinions are truly all over the place.
Here's how the team responded to the big question of the moment...
With Kristen Stewart's surprise snub, who do you think is in the lead for "Best Actress" at the Oscars and why?
Surprisingly, Jessica Chastain. Stewart is too outre for some, Olivia too soon for number two, Nicole's movie too unloved for number two, and the fifth nominee? Well, that's anybody's guess. Chastain gives a genuinely major performance in her minor movie, a gorgeous blend of spontaneity and her enviable technique. - Eric Blume
Kidman seems like the apparent choice after the Globe win. It's taken so much for people to come back around on her and rewarding that film and performance with a mixed reception would just give people reason to hate on her (again). So, I’m weirdly feeling Jessica Chastain right now. The elements of performance, overdue status and well-liked celebrity are all there. - Timothy Lyons
Would love to say Olivia Colman, but I'm leaning towards Jessica Chastain since she has the biopic + campaign factor. I could actually see Gaga going either way (winning or getting snubbed on February 8th) - Camila Henriques
Lady Gaga. Partly to make up for A Star is Born and also because SAG clearly loved the film which might get her a win. - Abe Fried Tanzer
I always felt Kristen's front runner status was more by default than from genuine enthusiasm. She got in front early and then when each successive contender didn't live up to expectation she just stayed put, but it never felt like an Oscar winning perf to me. But then neither do any of the others. Now she gets snubbed by SAG which in theory should derail her chances but as there is still no consensus on an alternative I kinda think she's still in the Lead. Penelope has been my most likely challenger but seeing as she didn't make it either, who the fuck knows??? Is it just Lady Gaga??? - Baby Clyde
Nicole Kidman for Being the Ricardos - Voters likely enjoy the movie more than critics. Plus, it feels like the right time to give her a second win, whereas some may see it as "too soon" for Olivia Colman. -Christopher James
Kidman, probably. That being said, I'm kinda rooting against her. It feels wrong if an actress with THAT career gets multiple Oscars for somewhat standard biopic fare. It's not at all representative of her incredible range and predisposition to do risky projects with bold auteurs. - Cláudio Alves
Nicole Kidman, in a role so many many doubted she could pull off, she carries the film and is a natural with Sorkin’s dialogue. Plus, she is absolutely one of those actresses most agree could use a second Oscar. Is this really the role? Maybe. But in a year with so many wide open races, she’s currently pulled into the lead. - Patrick Ball
Probably Nicole Kidman. She's a famous movie star playing a famous icon in a movie about show business. Seems like a winning recipe. - Matt St Clair
Gotta be Kidman, between the SAG nod, the Golden Globes win, and what seems to be general industry affection for BEING THE RICARDOS. I don't get it, but the signs look good. -Lynn Lee
Nicole Kidman seems like the obvious choice, but while Being the Ricardos is better than The Trial of the Chicago 7 (albeit by an almost unquantifiable degree) it hasn't hit with an org like SAG the way I thought it might. She seemed the most logical choice even before the Stewart omission, and I still think she is. But it does feel like a real race given reaction to the film as well as the performance. - Glenn Dunks
I never thought I would be sad to complain that Nicole Kidman is likely to win a second Oscar, yet here I am. She is playing a beloved star in a role that many thought she should keep far away from. Maybe I'm just in denial that Lady Gaga will win for "Most Actress" instead? Who knows? -Gabriel Mayora
Ever since her Globe win I’ve been conditioning myself into accepting that Nicole Kidman is on her way to winning the Oscar. Because even if Stewart had made the five at SAG, I’m inclined to think Kidman would’ve won over Stewart anyways given the film/TV industry crossover appeal of Being the Ricardos and the fact that Kidman had never won at SAG for a Motion Picture category. As uninspired as it is – really? A second Oscar for this film? – this kind of win falls in line with Zellweger’s very recent second Oscar for a not-so-great biopic of a revered American celebrity. -Allen Nguyen
I honestly think this is still wide open. Stats could break so Kristen Stewart is still possible - Juan Carlos Ojano
Finally, Eurocheese and Nick Taylor might have summed it up the confusion and genuine competition most accurately by not really committing to an answer. Here's what they said...
First: I still think Stewart's showing up at the Oscars, and I don't think any of the biopic performers should feel cozy about their slots. Regardless of whether the Globes strictly matter this season, I wonder if Nicole Kidman is about to start sweeping the field. It's the right kind of role, and Being the Ricardos arguably fits their biopic template best of the nominees - not as gaudy or tacky or boring in a bad way. Bardem showing up for no reason sure helps, though Lady Gaga's dragging her whole film into nominations while she charges for the Oscar. Who knows - if there's any justice Olivia Colman will take it all. - Nick Taylor
I could talk myself into all of them. Part of me still wonders if Kristen Stewart could pull it out. If they go populist, we're looking at Gaga. Kidman is surely overdue for a second, but not everyone loves Being the Ricardos. Could Colman win again so soon? And Chastain would be wonderful but I wasn't even sure she was getting in... This race is wide open now. - Eurocheese
We repeat -- and with some glee since this should ever be thus -- the race is wide open now!
Reader Comments (35)
My gut says Kidman takes CC and Colman SAG/BAFTA/Oscar.
I'm in the (very lonely) minority at this site in just not thinking Nicole Kidman is all that. She seems over-rewarded already. There, I said it.
Lady Gaga still seems a bit new and unsettled as an actress, so I find myself wishing it would go to Jessica Chastain, even though I haven't seen her film! She has never been bad that I've ever seen and seems at least as daring as Kidman.
I hope Stewart at least gets nominated. That seems like a fair reward for her effort.
And is Olivia Colman any more "too soon" than Frances McDormand after her second Oscar?
I want to say Chastain as of the field she's my favourite,I don't like BTR or Spencer and felt both Kidman and Stewart were unconvincing.
The fact that KIdman can be underappreciated doesn't mean she could use a 2nd win at all,she has more gas left in the tank,let her rival her greatest turns then give her a 2nd like Cate B did.
If WSS had been huge I think Zegler would be in for the win.
I'm sad we're aren't discussing Tessa Thompson more
Frances M's buzz died quickly.
GaGa can wait a bit longer but Oscar likes her and the film is popular and she's a red carpet godsend,the lack of televised awards and premieres recently might have hurt.
Hudson could happen but I think it there are too many buzzier real person roles for her to get in,she's fine though in the film.
I have not seen Colman,Haim or Cruz.
I wouldn't bet against Coleman. While I was PISSED that she won against Close a few years ago, I've really grown to love her, both as an actress and as a personality on talk shows and wherever. If Daniel Day Lewis, Frances McDormand and Christoph Waltz can rack up two Oscars as fast as they did, so can Coleman.
That said, I think it's anybody's game at the moment. Kidman, Cruz, Gaga, even Stewart could still prevail.
It's so fun to see everyone's thoughts!
I don't think Chastain will win. I just don't think she has the momentum or the narrative to win. The Oscar, particularly lead ones, are also industry awards and her film was a major flop. If she's nominated, that will be her reward.
I think the chilly audience reception will do Stewart in. I also think her other problem is that, for an actress who has been in high grossing films, she doesn't seem to have the right narrative. Critics know she's a great actress, but I suspect a lot of folks, even in the industry are lukewarm on her. Some of her best work has been in smaller foriegn films. She also isn't loved in the way movie stars typically (e.g, Bullock) and her strong performance won't make academy members feel like they're making a discovery.
I have a hard time seeing Gaga win. It's a great performance, but it strikes me as being a bit too much for the academy.
I think it's between Colman and Kidman. Colman could Glenda Jackson her way to a second win, doing it in record time while riding the genuine wave of industry love she has at this time. Much like Jackson, she's also doing something different than she was in her first film and her other big roles in the Father and the Crown.
I also think Kidman could win, much like Ingrid Bergman won her second. She's an actress that's respected and well-loved after spending some time being unloved in a project that is academy friendly. No one would say it's her best performance, but it's just worthy enough and she's at a good moment in her career for this honor. I suspect second winners like Sally Field benefited from that sort of sentiment.
On the other hand, I also think it makes sense that Kidman could be the first lead winner for a streaming film. She is very much so the reigning queen of streaming, effortlessly moving between films and series while still being A-list. Her career, now, is a model for what the right type of celebrity/A-lister looks like.
How very Glenda Jackson of her!
I fear Kidman sealed the deal when she said during a Q&A that she refused to wear prosthethics because she wanted to look naturaLOL
I haven't seen any of these performances yet, but it seems obvious that Kidman is the frontrunner. She's by far the biggest star with the most impressive career of the bunch, hasn't won in 20 years, and is playing a much beloved real life star.
Plus she won the Globe, and BTR came in strong across the board at SAG. BTR is also the most likely of the 5 movies to show up in Best Pic or Best Actor, which will help it be seen more than Chastain or Spencer.
It's obviously still fluid. Colman will probably do well at BAFTA, Stewart has most critics awards, Gaga and Chastain both will campaign hard... but can't see how we can put anyone ahead of Nicole at the moment.
I can clearly see Colman winning her 2nd. Then becoming the new McDormand. Then, the new Meryl.
I am not sure; all the contenders have strikes against them.
I would not be surprised if Olivia Colman win her second. She is respected and she appeals to (ugh..I hate to say it) lowbrow and highbrow crowd. The only thing that gives me pause is the role.
Can anyone point out a similar role winning Oscar, especially a 2nd Oscar? Her character is "unlikeable" but not "unlikeable" like Charlize Theron in "Monster". The positive for Colman is she is probably top 2 at BAFTA and if she wins there, that means there is block supporting her.
As much as I like Kidman's performance, if the Academy wants to reward a biopic performance, I hope they reward Jessica Chastain. I think Chastain is very good but I am not sure if people will care for her movie. I think both Kidman and Chastain can win if people like their movies beyond their performances.
As for Lady Gaga, I am meh on her performance but I cannot deny that she is a movie star and she made "House of Gucci" watchable for me. I saw people comparing her to Cher...ughhh....I don't think so. I think Cher is flawless in Moonstruck while Gaga is uneven. But if Academy wants to award a box office draw as she is perceived right now, I guess she can win. Academy has done worse and at least Lady Gaga is entertaining in spots.
I think Colman could certainly win--she would follow Frances in BA twice, which would not be unwelcome. Jodie Foster, Glenda Jackson, Sally Field, Frances, and others have won two BAs in similar proximity before.
Her star has done nothing but rise since her first award. Two well-received seasons of The Crown (for which she won an Emmy, a Globe, and two SAGs), another Oscar nom in supporting... She's a household name in a way she wasn't in '18. Plus, she is a delightful interview, second only to Miriam Margolyes. She is our new Emma Thompson, our new Maggie Smith.
That said, no idea if she WILL win. But I love a chaotic category! Last year's BA was fully chaotic with an argument to be made for any of the five of the nominees (perhaps not Kirby) to win on Oscar night. I hope for the same this year!
Stewart was never gonna win for this, and nothing that’s happened in the past two weeks has done anything to change that. Gaga’s performance is old school Oscar catnip, but no. Zegler makes a good impression, but not good enough to triumph in this race. Alana Heim is a natural performer, but I don’t think voters will be that impressed. Hudson is just not a great actress and she’s in a standard biopic—but she could win if voters are lazy (not out of the question).
[A moment of silence for Tessa Thompson and Penélope Cruz…]
Kidman’s work is impressive, though I wish she’d had a better director.
Ditto for Chastain.
I can see them both winning.
I haven’t watched Colman’s performance yet.
RANKING (for the win)
Kidman (recency)
Chastain
Hudson (ducking)
Gaga
Stewart
Heim
Zegler
(If I had to rank Colman sight unseen, I’d put her in the top 3)
NOOOOOOOO to Both Kidman and the movie itself. Both are quite forgetful.
I think Gaga is winning SAG. She's the only nominee whose film is nominated for Best Ensemble, her film is tied for the most nominations, and finally she's terrific in the film to boot. Does this mean she wins the Oscar? I do not know.
I could foresee an outcome where Kidman wins the GG (which she did already) , Chastain wins Critics Choice, Gaga wins SAG, Colman wins BAFTA , and then who knows wins the Oscar. If recent history's any indication the Oscar would be awarded to Colman.
Colman isn't winning Best Actress. The McDormand, Day-Lewis, and Waltz comparisons do not work here - they all won second or third Oscars for Best Picture nominees that were broadly admired within the Academy. Colman's film will probably top out at Actress and Screenplay.
I still think Kidman is the frontrunner, but it is conceivable that Chastain could make a run for it, if she is nominated, given that she has an impressive filmography and has never won (and she'll campaign hard).
Wait, is Cláudio suggesting, re: “feels wrong if an actress with THAT career gets multiple Oscars for somewhat standard biopic fare,” that The Hours is standard biopic fare? Because there’s nothing “standard biopic” about The Hours.
That said, I, too, can envision Kidman winning for Being the Ricardos, the way that Zellweger marched to an easy victory for Judy two years ago. More challenging fare such as The Lost Daughter and Spencer (like Promising Young Woman last year) likely will have to settle for nominations, Is AMPAS ready to reward Lady Gaga with *another* Oscar, this time for acting? She’d be on par with Barbra Streisand, who was a prolific, top Hollywood movie star at that point, which Gaga just isn’t (yet). But time’s have changed so who knows. It very well may be Chastain, ultimately, who *is* giving it her all in The Eyes of Tammy Faye, God bless her. Here’s hoping…
Mareko -- I love THE HOURS but I do think Kidman's performance, specifically, follows a lot of the same models and strategies of standard biopics in the Oscar race, right down to the "transformation" aspect of it. I've always thought Streep and Moore were more interesting in the same film.
I really fear Kidman will sweep for what is possibly the least interesting performance of her career.
I wasn't that impressed with Chastain, but at least she had a couple scenes of real emotion.
I've not seen Gaga, so can't comment on her performance yet.
Stewart faces the same challenge as Portman in JACKIE-- too strange and dreamlike a film for literal-minded, paint-by-numbers voters.
Colman was great in an otherwise mess of a film, but ... I still found her performance largely forgettable.
Cruz and Reinsve should really be in this conversation, but alas, Academy voters are not very inclusive when it comes to foreign language performances, are they? And this year, Globes, BFCA, SAG managed to drop the ball in a spectacular way...
Cruz. Sorry, but if she's nominated, she might win it. She defeated ALL of the rest for NSFC and LAFCA, and the SAG was unlikely to nominate her, the Globes and BAFTA seem to have been affected because of the late release of Parallel Mothers (a huge mistake by SPC)... if somehow she gets the nom (I know, unlikely at this point, but Oscar voting is on a time when the screeners will have been seen... ) she may benefit of such lack of a real strong contender for the win, and so big open field... but... will she be nominated? Right now is a huge if.
Banderas was in a similar situation, two years ago, and he got the nom, despite some surprising snubs... and I am sure he would have won, if Joker wouldn't have been released the same year...
@Jesus Alonso; I agree that Penelope deserves to be nominated however what gives me pause is her absence in BAFTA long list. Parallel Mothers was one of the first screeners that was sent to BAFTA so they already have it for months. It is also one the first screeners sent to SAG committee so it’s concerning that she also missed that although it’s more understandable since it’s in foreign language and SAG rarely nominates foreign language performance unless it’s undeniable.
The only hope is there is another month of voting so Academy has time to catch up but it’s been missing everywhere except the score so I am doubtful but it’s Almodovar movie so maybe they will check it out.
What would boost Penélope (or Tessa, for that matter) is a well-timed, well-placed full-page FYC ad paid for and endorsed by someone like Meryl Streep: "You must see this performance!" or something along those lines. And other behind-the-scenes campaigning like Julia Roberts did for Javier Bardem (in 2011) and Denzel (in 2002).
Sincerely, none of them impressed me.
In a good year, I doubt any of those performances would be up for an Oscar.
I'm loving the increasing chaos in the Best Actress race, but I think that the blending of the performances as real people not only exists because of mimicry but because these people were all very stylish and in heightened stations in life. Even Alana in Licorice Pizza is glamour adjacent. If Halle Berry could somehow get in for Bruised, I think she could easily stand out from this group, but that doesn't look likely to happen. So it looks like it's going to have to be a European to be the "which of these is not like the others," most likely British Colman, but I'm still holding out hope for Spanish Cruz, since Norwegian Reinsve, French Rousell, Finnish Harla, and Belgian Efira are all probably flying too far below voters' radar to break though into the lineup.
This race is so close. But I just feel in my gut that Jessica is going to win this. All the other nominees have too many hurdles to cross. And the long window to the Oscar ceremony will give folks a very long period to rediscover this brilliant performance from last September. I also think that none of the other very talented hopefuls come close to the level of difficulty Chastain's role shows.
Even with the SAG miss, it's really hard for me to imagine Stewart is in firth place. SAG is just a really weird awards body.
This is the most disappointing year for Best Actress I can remember. Last year, any of the five performances would have been better than any of the performances that are seriously being considered last year. Even if I didn't like all of the films (The United States vs. Billie Holiday was awful, Andra Day was wonderful), all would have been deserving winners. This year, none of the performances come close to the least accomplished performance last year. I wish Vanessa Kirby or Carey Mulligan were in the running this year!
Rachel Zegler is fine in West Side Story. Alana Haim does a nice job in a film I really disliked. I enjoyed Kristin Stewart, but as various posters point out, the film and her performance are just too weird for mainstream voters. One of the many observations that might get me kicked off this website, but Lady Gaga's "I'm just going to go for it" performance in House of Gucci may be my favorite of the year, and could take this?
I simply cannot see the overwhelmingly older straight white male Oscar goers making it through The Lost Daughter. Have you seen its 45% Audience Score on rotten tomatoes? I am with them -- I thought it was dreary, self indulgent filmmaking that desperately needed a sharper script and some careful pruning. Nicole Kidman was adequate in BTR, but gosh, this shouldn't be what wins her the second Oscar (that should have been Rabbit Hole). I liked Jessica Chastain's over the top evocation of Tammy Faye, but again, I can't see the guys making it through the film, never mind voting for her.
I consider myself a devoted actressexual, but this year the men's performances are much more captivating!
but Tammy Faye made like two dollars at the box office! Not even Gay Film Twitter saw it and that was way before Omicron. I guess people vote based on the trailer and the gif where she looks like she has had mumps.
I demand blue-ribbon panels! Common people have the worst taste
Can't be underestimated a) how much the older members of the Academy love Lucy and b) how entertaining Kidman's performance was to them. I think she's got it in the bag, given the other 4 will split the vote fairly evenly.
Having just seen BEING THE RICARDOS, I can confidently say that Nicole Kidman is going to win her second Oscar for Best Actress.
The movie revolves around her so much and Kidman is more than up to the task of filling Lucille Ball's huge shoes. It's an excellent performance and she delivers Aaron Sorkin's delicious dialogue with aplomb.
Kristen Stewart missing out with SAG just further solidifies Kidman's frontrunner status. Right now I think the nominees will be:
Jessica Chastain - THE EYES OF TAMMY FAYE
Olivia Colman - THE LOST DAUGHTER
Lady Gaga - HOUSE OF GUCCI
Nicole Kidman - BEING THE RICARDOS
Kristen Stewart - SPENCER
Also hoping for Cruz to sneak in last minute. It'd be incredible if she actually pulled it off and won! Specially because I'm not even sure she'll win best actress at the Goyas!
My hunch is that Kidman wins SAG, Stewart wins Critics Choice, and Colman wins BAFTA, which would put Kidman in the lead going into Oscar night (SAG + GG), but not by any means a lock. I do still think she’ll win the Oscar, but I don’t think she’ll sweep the remaining three big precursors.
I for the life of me cannot understand how Cruz missed the Bafta long list. I expected her to miss SAG but thought she'd WIN Bafta and possibly the Oscar. She's missed in too many places; I have no choice but to take her out of my Top 5. Maybe she'll Marion Cotillard herself into this race? I hope so.
Honestly have no clue, which is fun, but the only film / performance here that I feel passionate about is Spencer / Stewart, so I'm just gonna keep rooting for her although her winning does seem far-fetched at this point.
In terms of nominees, I do think the five regulars are looking the most likely, but it's still a volatile race.
There's something in me saying Alana Haim could sneak in... or even Tessa Thompson.
Penelope would be fun but I think people should probably expect the worst in that scenario, even if they keep hoping for the best.
Just please, God, no Jennifer Hudson.
But you know how this stuff goes, your imagination has fun, and then the reductive nature of reality hits ya square on the head come Oscar morning.
*shrug*
It'll probably be the suspected five, as it usually is with Oscar.
I really think it's CHASTAIN's time to win that deserved Oscar. She gave an electrifying performance in TEOTF & clearly elevated the material, plus her tour the force in SFAM gotta count, guess she takes SAG & CC home. KIDMAN is good as always in BTR but it doesn't scream Oscar worthy for me. COLMAN is , again, terrific, Bafta will be between her and Chastain. GAGA is really a head-scratcher, HOG is a mess & she's fun to watch but no way she deserves a nod for that. STEWART is my "I don't care for" actress, she's really good in Spencer (maybe a CC win), but the role is tailor-made for her gifts, she never manages to deeply impress me but she deserves a nod for the effort, not the win though. HUDSON is no surprise here, they do love biopics. I really wish Renate Reinsve & Penélope Cruz got nominated. My Oscar line-up would be: CHASTAIN-COLMAN-CRUZ-REINSVE-STEWART.