Best Actor - Just how volatile is that fifth spot?
Tuesday, January 18, 2022 at 5:59PM by Nathaniel R
Former Oscar winners: Denzel, Nicolas (and Javier Bardem) all rising on the chart
Oscar chart update time. The SAG nominations threw a wrench into Best Actor predictions with the inclusion of the polarizing performance (or rather polarizing casting) of Javier Bardem as Desi Arnaz in Being the Ricardos. But is he really a threat to the nomination? Probably, yes, as Oscar's acting branch loves almost nothing more than celebrities playing other celebrities. Not all biopics are about celebrities or star bonafide celebrities so this is a special awards-magnetized division of the overall 'genre' if you will. We think he might be nominated -- especially if Nicole Kidman becomes the clear favourite in Best Actress -- but he's hardly locked up. Especially because it seems extra foolish to assume his nomination chances are as sturdy as the other four SAG nominees (Will Smith, Andrew Garfield, Benedict Cumberbatch, Denzel Washington) who have all scored at all three important precursors (which Bardem has not).
Our conclusion. The fifth spot is a true free-for-all...
Before the SAG nominations we had been predicting Leonardo DiCaprio to score for his comic star turn as an exasperated spiralling astronomer in Don't Look Up but the SAG response to that movie (Outstanding Cast nod and nothing else) suggests to us that the industry isn't really differentiating the performances in that ensemble. Though the Globes are often dissed for their star-f***ing, SAG is also very impressed with "celebrity" so it stood to reason that Leo had a great shot there. And yet he didn't appear. Neither did Peter Dinklage whose campaign for Cyrano seems to have been somewhat derailed by MGM/UA's strange reluctance to release that damn movie. The movie plays like a potential crowd-pleaser (it's very charming) but it's been kept away from the crowds and therefore they can't be pleased! It's currently scheduled to be released on February 25th. We weren't born yesterday and whenever an Oscar hopeful plans a release well after Oscar nominations, the confidence isnt there. But if not Leo and Peter, then who? This leads us to believe that "passion picks" actually have a great window to climb through.
So suddenly we're wondering if the fifth slot is going to be Nicolas Cage in Pig so that's what we're predicting for the moment. He's the only one who has made a dent in Benedict Cumberbatch's critics win haul and the people who love that performance really love it. Plus we know of at least one Academy member who is considering voting for him...
I encourage viewers to watch Nic Cage in PIG ❣️
— Sharon Stone (@sharonstone) January 8, 2022
Outside of Nicolas Cage, the other passion pick might well be Hidetoshi Nishijima in Drive My Car but, regardless of how great Nishijima is in that movie (yes he's marvelous) that feels awfully far-fetched given Oscar history, even accounting for that movie's swift rise as "The International Feature to beat!"
Are we overthinking all of this? Of course we are; That's the fun of punditry! Your thoughts?
Reader Comments (18)
it's still Leo. Sag voting started in early December before DLU became a huge hit and a major talking point.
Murtada --you're probably right. I do so love to overthink it!
Can't say I am a fan of Cage's performance. Is he capable of giving something between manic and comatose? But then I wasn't all that big on the movie itself despite some strong elements. Not for me.
Dinklage is so well-liked, though... like, he won Emmys for season of GoT that even fans admit weren't his strongest. But, true, the movie is invisible outside of the awards conversation, which means it may as well not exist to a lot of voters.Still, actors can often vote for who thelike like (Damien Bishir for example) no matter the size of a movie. But, yeah, Leo seems the most logical to me...
This is a sorta exciting fifth slot race! I could see Garfield being a shocker snub, but the other three seem about as locked up as could be
If it is Leo, then we should probably expect Mark Rylance or Jonah Hill or one of the other DLU actors to show up in Supporting Actor, like Alan Alda, Djimon Hounsou, Jonah Hill, Tom Hardy, and Brad Pitt.
Will this be the first time in 40+ (?) years Best Actor doesn’t welcome a first time nominee?
Roge, you took mine...I was totally gonna ask if I'm crazy for thinking Garfield ain't as locked as he seems. I'd argue for Cage on passion, but Murtada is probably right even though that makes me sad.
It still feels like Peter Dinklage to me. He had the industry tributes early in the season, he's very popular (but would be a first-time nominee) and the late release can also make it seem fresh (like last-minute releases The Father, Billie Holiday and Judas and the Black Messiah this year).
I think Nicolas Cage in Pig is this year's critical darling that fails to get a nomination - like Ethan Hawke in First Reformed. Nishijima could be a surprise inclusion.
I can see DON'T LOOK UP getting Picture, Screenplay, Editing, Song and Score nods but I'm not expecting any acting nominations.
Steve --- i would think so too except that CYRANO isn't even getting a late release that could make it feel fresh. It's getting released WEEKS AFTER the nominations. Make it make sense!
i agree that it will probably be Leo, but i really do still think there's a shot that the shocker will be Joaquin Phoenix. it feels like a Tommy Lee Jones/Elah sort of seemingly-out-of-nowhere-for-an-actor-we-love-doing-something-different nod.
based on the convos with voters here in LA, i can't imagine Garfield missing, and in fact, i still think there's a shot he wins the whole thing.
I feel like Cumberbatch, Garfield and Smith are the only secure ones. The last two spots are open. I would love it if Nicolas Cage gets in. Hidetoshi Nishijima would be my other pick. I love these sad, simmering performances.
If it is Leo, shouldn't he have happened at SAG? Or are you assuming that the cast nomination at SAG is blind vote? Considering DLU blew up during the voting period, I thought Leo would have made if he is strong contender.
I gave up on Dinklage. If he were to happen, SAG will the place where he should get nominated.
I think it will just be Bardem because of lazy voting. The thing that helps him, I think is this role is different from him, he plays someone charming and funny ; he also sings! And isn't he is Spain submission for international feature? Maybe voters will nominate him just because he shows different sides of him as actor. I wish Joaquin can get traction but it looks unlikely now.
Locked: Cumberbatch, Smith (sigh)
Safe bets: Washington, Garfield
Makes sense: DiCaprio, Bardem
Out of left field and right there all long: Cage
Dubious: Dinklage (besides the lack of buzz, if the film and performance had the same effect on a sizable group of voters that it did on me, it's not happening), Nishijima, Phoenix
I think Leo's the best thing in his movie but cannot imagine actually casting a ballot for him here...but I also think it's gonna be him.
The Oh, he can sing too?!! Factor will give Javier the nomination.
I think if there is a snub it might be Washington. He seems to be the default nominee and would probably struggle if his category was more competitive like McDormand. I don't hear anyone really passionate about this movie and I think that lack of passion might hurt him.
Bardem sure feels like the safest bet, though I can oddly fathom it still being Phoenix in the end, despite a ho-hum precursors run. The DiCaprio SAG snub hurts, I fear PIG is too obscure for Cage to make the cut and Dinklage & CYRANO have terribly underperformed thus far.
My pick:
1. Andrew Garfield
2. Benedict Cumberbatch
3. Peter Dinklage
4. Will Smith
5. Bradley Cooper
6. Joaquin Phoenix
7. Javier Bardem
8. Richard Jenkins
9. Leonardo DiCaprio
10. Nicolas Cage
Andrew -- but even among those who like Being the Ricardos, who loves *his* performance specifically. I like him as an actor but this is going to be such a weird nomination if he gets it since so few people seem enthused.
Joaquin is so deserving. And where is Oscar Isaac for The Card Counter!
Denzel and Javier do not deserved to be nominated. Sigh.
So far, Garfield is my guy. But I haven't seen Smith or Cumberbatch.