My only complaint here is that we are still short on genres in a year in which horror - to name one - gave us some very strong titles. On the other end, I am overjoyed by the contamination of international cinema, even if they did not choose the movies I was hoping for. Furthermore, I was heartened by the absence of some Oscar contenders in this category that had a lot of buzz but I considered too weak to belong. Unlike you Eric, I would be pleased to see The Whale, but Women Talking is an excellent alternative.

Overall, I like this party and I want to dance.

You left me with the difficult part though, didn't you? I’ll try to rule out nominees that don’t have a chance of winning. I would say we can easily rule out Avatar and Top Gun as their main job was to show up here. Triangle of Sadness also won by grabbing this nomination at all. Women Talking could have stood a stronger chance but the campaign was a little bit messed up. I think it could have easily grabbed another nomination or two. I would put both Elvis and The Fabelmans in the category “they had their momentum... but too early”. 

NATHANIEL: Up until nomination morning, I did think that Top Gun Maverick had an outside shot at taking the top prize so I'd move it into the Elvis & Fabelmans category you listed of 'momentum too early'. But agree on the rest mostly. Which according to how you're divvying things up, leaves TAR, All Quiet on the Western Front, and The Banshees of Inisherin trying to take down awards magnet Everything Everywhere All At Once. 

TAR has exhibited real staying power in the imagination of people who obsess over movies and its fans are passionate but it's way too challenging of a drama for mass appeal (which you basically need to win the top prize). This is also why I think Blanchett is going to lose... Oscar has rarely given Best Actress to "unlikeable" women and TAR consistently challenges you about Lydia's character .  So it's just Banshees and... All Quiet?  

This late in the season, with EEAAO becoming less of "a real film to discuss, warts and all" and more of a "thing to worship/actively root for!" -- this is not a knock on the movie, by the way, just the way awards season plays out annually -- it's becoming more difficult to imagine an upset happening. While The Globes favored Banshees and The Fabelmans the Globes feel like they took place six months ago (fact check: it's been 8 weeks). If BAFTA had broke towards Banshees of Inisherin rather than All Quiet, I'd say it was a neck and neck race or at least a neck and...um... chest race, but Everything Everywhere has been winning so many things of late it now feels like a neck and, uh, toe race with all other contenders crushed under its feet.  Only The Banshees of Inisherin feels like a threat, and only a tiny threat because of the weighted ballot. I'd argue that Banshees is the least divisive of the ten films nominated, which is funny because it's about a great divide that there's no way to come back from.

Which is a long way of saying that I dont suspect All Quiet on the Western Front got as much of a boost from BAFTA as its big win there might have suggested in another season.

ERIC: You have distilled this race perfectly.  It's indeed sad that TAR is too challenging for a mass win.  The only film similarly challenging to win in recent years was Nomadland, a film that won probably because everyone was in a very dark, introspective COVID place?  I mean, to this day I am still shocked that a movie that good won Best Picture.  Winners are usually much more mainstream, and I think EEAAO has a little bit of a blockbuster feel despite all the dildoes and more challenging aspects.  TAR is just too demanding and obtuse and difficult to go the distance (though I still think Cate might).

I agree that All Quiet doesn't have the mojo to beat EEAAO.  I'm a big fan of the film, but it also isn't perfect, and it doesn't have that feeling of "UNDENIABLE MASTERPIECE" like Parasite had two years ago.  It'll win International Film and likely one or two additional Oscars, which means it will still have a wonderful night.  

We don't believe BANSHEES OF INISHERIN will go home empty-handed

Back in January, it seemed like Banshees was about even-steven with EEAAO.  While I don't think it stands a real chance now, there is still an incredible amount of love for that film, especially among actors and especially among the international contingent (which makes up a LOT of voters).  It's not going home empty handed.  I think because The Daniels will likely win Best Director that voters will go for McDonagh for Original Screenplay, and I firmly believe Kerry Condon will be our supporting actress winner.  I also still, despite all the punditry, feel Colin Farrell stands an excellent shot at winning... I won't be at all surprised to hear his name called.  In a race that close, it counts to have worked with far, far more voters across every category than your competition, and Ferrell is beloved by everyone he's worked with for two decades.  But that's another category.  All to say that because Banshees won't pull off the big award, the love will be syphoned off in other areas.

Elisa, are you feeling any of the three films mentioned might make a steal from EEAAO?

ELISA: At this point in the race, Daniels' movie has become the favorite almost everywhere, so it feels like it has already won the top prize. There will be a category or two that I think will surprise us. This is my insight, even if right now it seems like EEAAO can even sweep.