Oscar Volley: Best Actress
Sunday, March 5, 2023 at 12:52PM Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Baby Clyde and Juan Carlos Ojano discussing Best Actress.
CARLOS: A two-time Oscar winner gunning for her third, a rising star playing a Hollywood legend in a highly divisive film, a character actress getting an overdue recognition, a recurring nominee playing Steven Spielberg's mother, and an international star in the role of a lifetime in the Best Picture frontrunner. It's quite an exciting mix of actresses plucked from a highly competitive field.
But we would be remiss if we don't address the elephant in the room, to just get it out of the way...
After a surprise inclusion (and exclusions), the polarizing response to those, and an internal investigation, I think we do have enough distance for the dust to settle and just talk about the five nominated actresses and their work. Or do we?
BABY CLYDE: It was touch and go for a while, when it looked like this conflama might overwhelm Oscar season, but thankfully Frances Fisher's omnipotent Instagram account has faded from the headlines and we can concentrate on the great performances that did make it into the final list. Having said that, I've long believed that blaming Academy members for the frequent lack of diversity in nominations misses the point.
Voters aren't responsible for the scripts that get written, or the films that are green lit, the placements at festivals, the response from critics or the choices made by precursor awards. By the time the Academy gets to have any input at all, the fields has been winnowed down to just a few contenders and that field doesn't tend to have much variety.
The problem this year of course, is that none of that was true. The films were made and treated as prestige pictures from the start, with high profiles, campaign funds and all the awards recognition necessary to grab The Academy's attention, AND THE BLACK WOMEN STILL GOT SNUBBED!!!
This is a terrible look. My immediate tweet summed it up:
Best Actress is YIKES 😬
— Baby Clyde’s Oscars (@BabyClydeOscars) January 24, 2023
It's a problem that needs addressing even if I have no solutions to offer. What I do know is that Andrea Riseborough wasn't to blame and the ill-informed backlash she received after her surprise nomination was entirely unwarranted. It goes without saying that the majority of those complaining hadn't actually seen the performance.
But let's get the competition at hand. Cate's got this in the bag, right???
CARLOS: I would have agreed 100% with it until Michelle Yeoh won SAG and got that response. Also take into consideration the film's sweep that night and the overall response to the cast during that ceremony.
Much has been said about the SAG vs BAFTA stats which do favor Blanchett, but sometimes you just have to take a temperature check. EEAAO has been sweeping at the guilds, disproving that the film might strugglewith the industry, particularly its older members. There seems to be genuine love for the film (save BAFTA). And that's what gets me. If there is so much love for the film, would the industry even bother looking away from the gargantuan performance at its core?
Couple it with other coexisting narratives - Yeoh has never been nominated for an Oscar, Yeoh is the first openly Asian actress to be nominated, Yeoh would be the first Asian to win Best Actress - and you have the perfect storm to back Yeoh emerging as the victor. And lucky for us, we did see the embodiment of a potential win for her during the SAG Awards. With both SAG winners Jamie Lee Curtis and Ke Huy Quan basically doing FYC speeches for Yeoh and then Yeoh winning, Yeoh is definitely making a strong case to surprise as the next Oscar winner.
To even call Yeoh a surprise seems weird, but that is really because pre-SAG, Blanchett was the true sweeper of this category. Tár even overperformed in Oscar nominations (getting an impressive total of six), signaling that this could have been a smooth sailing path for her to win a third Oscar. In recent years, SAG vs BAFTA splits in Actress tend to favor the winner in the latter (Davis vs McDormand, Close vs Colman, Davis vs Streep). But EEAAO being an awards juggernaut does give me pause. Also, previous years have BAFTA airing last in the televised awards. This year, it's SAG.
So even during our conversation, I am still undecided! It might seem futile at this point predictions-wise, but where do you think the other three nominees stand?
BABY CLYDE: Have to say I totally agree. That SAG win does suggest a last-minute change in the narrative. But has if come too late? Blanchett has been sweeping. Still this year is refreshingly unstable with very few locks across the 23 categories. After years of predictable Oscar ceremonies, this one could be full of shockers. Being firmly #TeamYeoh, I’d be delighted by her winning.
As I’ve been saying all year, Michelle Yeoh could have starred in Tár but Cate Blanchett could not have pulled off Everything Everywhere All At Once.
The thing that gives me pause is Academy voter’s resistance to making great Oscar moments. Blanchett would be a deserving winner but it won’t be a memorable win. Yeoh on the other hand will be a historic win for the ages. Never underestimate The Academy ability to make the dullest choice imaginable. I’ll never forgive them for wasting a Best Actress award on 22 year old Jennifer Lawrence when 86 year old Emmanuelle Riva was right there, ON HER BIRTHDAY!!! I’m keeping my fingers crossed but expectations low.
As for the others, I think we can agree they have a slim-to-none chance of winning but that’s not to say they wouldn’t be deserving in other years. In order of personal preference, Riseborough would be this year's Indie darling if it wasn’t for the circumstances of her nomination. It’s an astonishing performance which hugely deserves its nomination.
Williams on nomination #5 is fast becoming overdue and in other circumstances would be a strong contender. This time round, category confusion (voters got it right) and a divisive performance in a film that has lost all momentum mean that this isn’t her time.
Which leaves De Armas who is certainly not to blame for her films many faults but for me failed to convince as the most iconic Movie Star of them all. She gives a fine performance but the odd accent slip and fact she looks nothing like Marilyn Monroe left me underwhelmed. It’s really hard to make an impact when everything surrounding the performance is so objectionable.
How do you rank these ladies? Would you like to see any of them triumph?
CARLOS: I would love to see Andrea Riseborough win for To Leslie! I was lucky enough to have watched the film just a day before Oscar nominations were announced, just to see what the fuss was about with that last-minute campaign. And oh my goodness, I was floored. I am familiar with her work but here she takes it to another level. To see her give this character dignity and empathy even when she reaches her lowest low, to have a physicality and expressivity that feels holistic and fully formed, it's just a fantastic showcase. I thought that the vocal support for her work within the actors' circles and the backlash to the backlash would give an urgency to push this to a surprise victory, but I guess the top two contenders are in more widely seen films. But again, I am ecstatic for this nomination.
As for Michelle Williams, there was a point sometime last year when I was entertaining the possibility of her possibly winning. To have her portray Spielberg's mother in a default Best Picture frontrunner and for a four-time nominee still waiting for her first win seemed like a compelling narrative, but that immediately crashed as soon as we realized that there were other films that had more passion in Best Picture (EEAAO, The Banshees of Inisherin, heck even Top Gun: Maverick). As for the performance, I know it's divisive, but I admire her commitment to that character. Her interpretation of Mitzi Fabelman is an unapologetic presence, one that truly occupies space and with an unpredictable rhythm to it. And I respect that - I love seeing Williams be this in character. I also agree with the category placement; this is a big performance and character and her importance resonance even in the parts without Williams' physical presence. Her screentime is also well-distributed throughout the film so I buy the placement. In my opinion, it's too big to be in supporting.
Ana de Armas started as a frontrunner before the film screened. Once it did, the film was polarizing and people immediately dropped her from their predictions. However, the mainstream awards bodies responded to her work, "bringing her back" to the conversation. Personally, as with Williams, I respect de Armas's commitment to the performance. Not the reenactments (but they do help), but to find some semblance of a footing within Andrew Dominik's nightmarish vision and be emotionally present in the moment. I didn't mind the accent because I do think it adds to the performative aspect of "Marilyn Monroe" as a persona coming from Norma Jeane. My problem actually lies from the monotony of this performance, due to the adherence to what the film was going for. The material severely limits what de Armas does with the character. It's hard to find varying notes and I am not sure she even wanted to. Not being able to subvert the material is the performance's glaring fault.
My personal ranking would be:
As for predictions... oh dear, oh gosh:
What would be your personal ranking? And predictions too? I need some guidance!
BABY CLYDE: We’re in total agreement on Riseborough. Before I’d seen or even read anything about the film, I only knew it was a tiny Indie about a recovering alcoholic. As it starred Andrea Riseborough, I’d assumed it was maybe a British period piece set in a gritty Northern town or something. The first few minutes, when I realised she was convincingly playing a modern day Texas woman blew my mind. The range!!! A last minute, cut and paste Twitter campaign did seem a bit cringe and I never for one minute thought it was going to work. But it shouldn’t have been necessary. She should have been in the discussion all season. It’s my favourite performance but not the one I’m actually rooting for.
If I’m honest I was slightly underwhelmed by both Cate Blanchett and Tár. It’s impressive work but most of the most interesting and dramatic action takes place off screen. I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a film that was so unwilling to engage its audience. I wanted to see Lydia Tar confronting her accusers or wrangling with the board who are trying to dismiss her. Those scenes would have been epic. Instead, we’re told everything and shown nothing. This left me frustrated for the performance that could have been. It didn’t help that the film wasn’t released in the UK until January and whilst I could have seen it before that would have meant watching on my laptop and I wanted to experience it on the big screen. I suspect my expectation were too high having heard nothing but raves for three months. I was left underwhelmed. If she was Oscarless I’d be fully onboard, but I see no reason for a third when there is an icon of International Cinema giving the performance of her life ready and waiting.
My personal ranking would be:
1. Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
2. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
3. Cate Blanchett - Tár
(big gap)
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Ana de Armas - Blonde
As for predictions…You’ve convinced me. No guts no glory:
1. Michelle Yeoh - Everything Everywhere All at Once
2. Cate Blanchett - Tár
3. Andrea Riseborough - To Leslie
4. Michelle Williams - The Fabelmans
5. Ana de Armas - Blonde
RELATED:
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- Oscar Volley: Best Director
- Oscar Volley: Adapted Screenplay
- Oscar Volley: International Feature
- Oscar Volley: Costume Design
- Oscar Volley: Cinematography
- Oscar Volley: Visual Effects
- Oscar Volley: Best Original Song
- Oscar Volley: Animated Feature
- Oscar Volley: Film Editing
Reader Comments (29)
Like with Colman vs. Close, the narratives that Close or Blanchett were "sweeping" were a bit off the mark. In Colman's case, she also won a Golden Globe and a weird side-award at the BFCA. She also won a lot more critics awards than Close did. Blanchett and Yeoh split the critics awards and Yeoh also won a Golden Globe. But Blanchett's combo of BFCA & BAFTA looked pretty solid. Now that Yeoh has SAG, it just got a lot closer. If "expert picks" are anything to go by, Yeoh has the momentum now.
" I don’t think I’ve ever encountered a film that was so unwilling to engage its audience. I wanted to see Lydia Tar confronting her accusers or wrangling with the board who are trying to dismiss her. Those scenes would have been epic."
It was not that kind of movie.
I think I understood which is the problem with Williams performance. She failed to give a 50s era style piece of acting à la Kate Winslet in Wonder Wheel. And that wiiiig
What does it say that Yeoh also came out on top (over Blanchett and 8 other lead performers) at yesterday's Spirit Awards? Anyways, I'm definitely rooting for Yeoh. She's a film legend who deserves it for a phenomenal, once-in-a-lifetime performance. They'd be crazy to pass on that and they have in the past so I won't be surprised if Blanchett wins (nor would I be mad at it, just sad).
I want Yeoh to win but wouldn't be upset if Blanchett did,I've come round to Williams also.
My own ballot
Yeoh winner
Blanchett
Deadwyler
Goth
I can't decide on 5th Riseborough,De Armas,Thompson or Weaver in The Good House.
This is an excellent quintet.
Although I like Blanchett’s a bit more, I am rooting for Yeoh all the way.
It’s a performance that’s memorable and really utilizes her skills. In the past, WOC contenders tend to have weak film but EEAAO is the front runner and Yeoh has acclaimed performance so I hope Academy rewards Yeoh accordingly.
Truthfully, Blanchett win will be fine; it’s just not exciting. In fact, any of the other four win will be more memorable. Blanchett will surely win the 3rd sooner than later; she is at the top
of casting list and working with all these top directors so maybe Academy can spread the wealth.
I think we have to look at the temperature check and not the previous awards for this one. Similar to last years temp check for Coda, Yeoh feels like the winner now.
Though I’m using the BAFTA winner and we have to give an Oscar to Banshees to predict Condon in supp.
Yeoh has this in the bag, but I still feel that she gave the weakest performance in that movie, especially compared to Hsu and Quan. Her portrayal of her characters seemed to be the same. One note. I could barely see the difference. I was not impressed by any means.Maybe it’s just me. That said she is going to win and we’ll all see how her win will be perceived in the future.
One slightly contrarian point about Yeoh: It’s not all that surprising that she’d never been nominated for an Oscar. With GREAT respect to her charisma and sterling reputation as a global star, she hasn’t spent a lot of time in traditional prestige elements and hasn’t always succeeded there when she’s tried. She’s basically had one solid play for awards attention prior to this year (Crouching Tiger), give or take Crazy Rich Asians. Often it takes more than one try to get nominated. And it’s not for lack of working, lack of good roles in Asian cinema, etc: That’s just not exactly the kind of career she’s had.
She’s done lots of charismatic and entertaining work with occasionally (next-level) genius performances. I might compare her career to Uma Thurman’s? And however much I love her, I’m not surprised that Uma’s Oscar record isn’t great.
Guys, loved reading your volley. Always nice to hear lots of praise for all these talented women.
I'm a hard disagree though on Michelle Yeoh being able to pull off TAR. One of the lovely things about the race is that the roles are so PERFECTLY and PROFOUNDLY embodied by their respective lead actresses...nobody could do either role as well as they do.
I'll be thrilled for Yeoh if she wins. But I still think it might be Cate. Yeoh was marvelous, but Blanchett was really monumental here. I also think it will be really really sad if Cate does win and then gets the bile of gross film twitter for "taking it away" from Michelle. It's just an award, people! Both actresses have been richly rewarded this year, which has been wonderful to witness.
Thanks EricB for your comment. Agree on the hard disagree that Yeoh could have pulled off Tar. Also thanks for pointing out how sad it will be if (when) Cate wins and people hate on her for ‘taking it’ from Michelle. I agree that it would be really really sad if/when that happens.
It's between Cate and Michelle in both should and will win.
I don't hate Ana De Armas' performance at all, I quite liked her in it.
Andrea is good, but nowhere near close her best.
Williams is horrible. HORRIBLE. But, the character itself is horribly written and directed.
Tang Wei deserved to be in this line up. And so did Mia Goth, IMO.
I don't understand the accolades for Andrea Riseborough when Allison Janney overshadows her every time the two share a scene.
I feel that some people are predicting Yeoh mostly because they want to see her win and not because of likelihood.
Cate's performance is too monumental not to be recognized. And, statistically, GG, CCA, BAFTA, and Critics' Trifecta wins put her in first place.
I have not seen Ana de Armas in Blonde though I read parts of the Joyce Carol Oates' long novel it was based from.
Unlike others, Michelle Williams as the Fabelman matriarch did not bother me. Stylised performance but nothing out of character to the dream factory films came from. Andrea Riseborough is deep in Vera Farmiga territory via Down to the Bone several years ago. Although compulsively watchable as always, I actually prefer Riseborough in edgier fare like Possessor where is beyond human in range. I hope this nomination will give her access to play more challenging material.
Michelle Yeoh was really good as Evelyn Wang. The first time I watched the film, I thought it was Stephanie Hsu and Ke Huy Quan who were the more memorable ones. When I recently re-watched it, Evelyn Wang's multiverse traversal was quite difficult to pull off and not just because of her martial arts training. Yeoh made it easier even if she did not really stand out. And maybe that was the point -- delivering a performance in sync with the story so well it is easy to dismiss the supreme challenge it poses to any actress who plays Evelyn.
Cate Blanchett is also really good and effective as an orchestra maestra. To conduct a Dresden orchestra for real, learn German, re-learn piano, and be riveting in the rarefied field of classical music while discussing her method in sustaining/prolonging/holding time was an art form in itself. She was cold and calculating but when reacting emotionally to Lenny Bernstein's taped performance on an analogue video, I was with her for every emotional beat she displayed.
I would be happy if either Yeoh or Blanchett takes home the big prize. I am fine with Blanchett winning a third - she deserves it through this lived-in performance. Yeoh manages to break my heart especially when she is with her daughter, or with her husband. Both performances have heart and intellect though differently calibrated. Both are also different - it will be interesting which performance voters think is better. But will these performances be talked about years later and not just as acting curios?
But in terms of who I think should have been in the top 5 lead actress this year based on my subjective takes of what is best: (in alphabetical order, natch)
1. Cate Blanchett
2. Mia Goth
3. Rebecca Hall
4. Guslagie Malanda
5. Michelle Yeoh
I found TO LESLIE a forgettable, familiar and dishonest film. Marc Maron's character and behavior was laughable even if Maron gave a solid performance. Andrea Riseborough's performance annoyed me right from the beginning. This film is lifetime t.v. level. There's nothing new or interesting about the story or the characters. As someone with a family who went through something similar, it's quite insulting to the intelligence.
Like TO LESLIE, I thought TAR was completely overrated. It didn't trust its audience so it had to have the characters spell out the messages as if they were talking in all caps. I'm hoping for Yeoh, but I always expect the Academy to do the wrong thing so Blanchett will probably win.
Folks, Andrea Riseborough didn't write Too Leslie. Is its plot oddly optimistic? Definitely. But it's the performance in the film that was nominated, not its script, and I'm delighted to see so much praise here for what I agree is a strong performace.
I mean at its core EEAAO's story is treacly sweet and exhaustingly tired (a family doesn't understand one another, and then they do - groundbreaking), but I don't judge Michelle Yeoh's (excellent) work on her being part of that set-up.
I want Andrea or Ana to win just for chaos, but the backlash would be aggressive in this scenario towards any of them. So just because I want more Andrea and Ana in my life, my “official” pick is Yeoh.
And just a reminder that this is a “best performance” category, not “best film carried by a woman”. Blonde is awful, maybe To Leslie is too “whatever”, but their leading ladies are phenomenal.
Cate's performance is too monumental not to be recognized. And, statistically, GG, CCA, BAFTA, and Critics' Trifecta wins put her in first place.
Versus GG, SAG (2x) and Spirit? Plus how literally every guild has picked EEAAO to win? I'm not saying Blanchett is out of it. I actually think she IS still the frontrunner, but I think it's MUCH closer now than it was even a couple weeks ago. Remember journalists and critics do NOT vote for Oscars.
Michelle Yeoh had the most difficult part. She had to embody several different incarnations of Evelyn, and she was just right in each one. She also had to link the incarnations and make the more outre ones seem plausible.
Cate Blanchett could have played a couple of the EEAAO incarnations, but not the whole set.
Although Blanchett is one of the most respected and well known actresses, there are dozens of actresses who could have played that part. Even in the same cast, Nina Hoss or Noemie Merlant could have played the lead, and been lively, interesting, and realistic.
Who else could have been cast as Tar’s lead and been just as good or better, or as compelling in a different way? Kate Winslet, Judy Davis, Cherry Jones, Nicole Kidman, Eva Green, Diane Kruger, Dale Dickey, Jodie Comer, Glenn Close, Sarah Paulson, Olivia Colman, Kristen Scott Thomas, Noomi Rapace, Toni Colette, Vanessa Kirby, Sigourney Weaver ... oh how Weaver would have eviserated that poor Juilliard student with a terrible smile and viewers would have been repelled but laughing and unwillingly fascinated.
My ranking:
1- Yeoh
2- Williams
3- Blanchett
4- De Armas
I’m watching To Leslie on Wed so I can’t rank her yet
There is no "Critics' Trifecta," there is a "Big Four" of which Blanchett won 3 and Yeoh won 1. This towering, undeniable performance did not sweep the precursors by any means.
@mcgill, I admire your defense of Yeoh’s performance, but which exactly of her incarnations can’t be played by Blanchett? If Blanchett’s Lydia can be played better by another actress, why can’t Yeoh’s character be played better by another actress? I can imagine all the actresses you mentioned, playing Yeoh’s part convincingly as well. A good performer will surely know how to play it. Then again, we will never know though if Weaver or Colman can be a better Lydia or Evelyn.
Just pure conjencture on your part, if I may add.
@Max Brandt: Any incarnation that includes martial arts.
@whunk Sure—but someone as random as Vivica A. Fox can be a convincing “martial artist” with the right direction and stunt assistance; I appreciate that Yeoh is the real deal and it’s a point of pride in her career, but movie magic is just that, movie magic.
I actually found her laundromat/parking lot scene(s) the most compelling and Oscar-worthy, entertainment aside. It’s a pretty great dramatic performance! I think Blanchett is pretty untouchable this year but Yeoh would make a worthy winner.
Sadly, it's the worst analysis I've seen on this site - including the horrible comments.
Please, don't turn "The Film Experience" into a toxic site like that disgusting "Awards Daily".
This said, as someone completely in love with Cate Blanchett since "Oscar & Lucinda", I think Yeoh is going to win this Oscar.
Blanchett is brilliant. But Yeoh is brilliant, and with a great heart. EEAAO is her movie, she's this movie's heart, it's her time.
Riseborough is extraordinary and could easily win in another year.
About Williams and de Armas, these nominations are bad jokes. I won't waste my time talking about how bad they are.
Emma Thompson, forgive the Academy, please. For the second time...
My personal preferences:
1. Cate Blanchett, TÁR
2. Michelle Yeoh, Everything Everywhere All At Once
3. Michelle Williams, The Fabelmans
4. Ana de Armas, Blonde
5. Andrea Riseborough, To Leslie
@McGill, why wouldn’t Blanchett be able to do that? She learned martial arts to play Hela in Thor. Bottom line is we really can’t say for a fact that actresses won’t be able to play Lydia Tar or Evelyn convincingly.
The Critics' Trifecta does exist, and it by no means includes NBR, which is actually considered a death kiss to an actress' campaign. Also, the winner of GG Drama+ CCA+ BAFTA has won the Oscar 41/42 times. The sheer amount of reviews and industry people calling Blanchett's performance the best of the year further reinforces her case.
Yeoh does have a chance, but Blanchett is the clear frontrunner.