Oscar Volley: Supporting Actress confounds and divides
Thursday, March 9, 2023 at 9:00AM Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Eurocheese, Mark Brinkerhoff, and Cláudio Alves on the volatile Best Supporting Actress race.
EUROCHEESE: Hello Gents - With the SAG awards throwing us a curveball, this might be the most exciting race this year! I have no idea who's taking the win. Before we get into it, any thoughts on these five nominees?
MARK: Any thoughts? All the thoughts!
I honestly did not expect for this race to be as exciting and, dare I say, unpredictable as it appears to be now. A month ago, it seemed like Angela Bassett’s to lose, a long coronation to a storied—and underrewarded—career, and now…I don’t know what to make of it, following Kerry Condon’s win at BAFTA and Jamie Lee Curtis’ gobsmacking upset at SAG...
Are we correct to presume that the Oscar is one of those three’s to lose? With Hong Chau and Stephanie Hsu (xoxo) looking in, ostensibly just happy to be nominated.
CLÁUDIO: Such is the chaotic quality of this race, and so tremendous is EEAAO's popularity that I don't even know if Hsu can be classified as 'just happy to be nominated.’
Hong Chau, whose film underperformed with the Academy, is the only one for whom a win feels inconceivable. That has nothing to do with the quality of the performance, of course. Though I find The Whale to be a vile thing and Fraser's potential win a travesty of bad taste cum bad judgment, Chau powers through the wreck and comes out mostly unscathed. While many of her competitors got here through roles tailored for acting pyrotechnics or scripts written in such a way that they help the performers, she is handled an impossible text. That Chau comes close to solving the conundrum in her scattered scenes is a testament to her craft.
I could go on and on, as is my custom. Moreover, even though none of these performances make my personal Best Supporting Actress ballot, they're all eminently discussible and worthy of analysis. Unfortunately, that's not always the case.
EUROCHEESE: I agree that Chau did an excellent job with a terribly written character (thank goodness The Whale missed Screenplay), but that she's the one out of the running here. I am insanely biased when it comes to EEAAO - Hsu and Curtis would be my #1 and #2 picks for the category this year - but until SAG, I assumed we were looking at a two horse race. But now...
Let's add a little confusion to the mix: In any other year, a career narrative forming around an overdue actress that took Critics Choice and the Globe, but did not translate to SAG or BAFTA, would indicate the momentum isn't there to win the Oscar. In any other year, BAFTA's home bias extending to the serious Irish contender when she didn't score elsewhere would be chalked up to BAFTA playing their usual tricks. (I also find it fascinating that when Keoghan and Condon both won, he was immediately dismissed but many are now ready to declare her the frontrunner.) In any other year, a SAG win for a veteran actress in a Best Picture frontrunner could be seen as the one place she might be rewarded. Long story short - I can excuse all of these as not being indicators for a win. So, chaos reigns? Jobu Tupaki is having her way and giving us an opening for Hsu? (For the record, much as I'd love it, I think a win for Hsu would still be a stretch.)
I am leaning in one direction, but could honestly be swayed by our conversation. Would either of you like to pitch me on who is most likely to take the win?
MARK: Oh, boy. Well, part of me feels like the Oscars’ coronation of the Queen Mother of Wakanda, Miss Bassett, may be too irresistible a pull for the Academy to pass up. (I felt similarly when Regina King was inexplicably missing at both BAFTA and SAG, but cruised to ultimate victory...albeit for a very different kind of film than Bassett’s. They both are just so well respected and worthy in their own right.) And yet another part of me has been surprised—and elated—by how dominate EEAAO has proven itself to be with guilds as varied as the CDGAs and the DGAs/PGAs, which certainly bodes well for Bassett’s fellow Hollywood veteran, Jamie Lee Curtis. So considering it could come down to legend vs. legend, that does seem to provide an opening for Condon to win, à la Tilda Swinton in the even more chaotic year that was 2007.
Bassett > Condon > Curtis > Hsu (dark horse), that’s my inkling at this point. (Honestly, it seems to change by the day.)
With actual Oscar voting starting, can you read the tea leaves better than I? What do they tell you?
CLÁUDIO: Full disclosure – I am a terrible pundit regarding prediction accuracy. Even so, my best efforts to interpret the Best Supporting Actress tea leaves lead me back to a past scenario. Like you, I feel 2007 might be the key to unlocking this mystery. In other words, Condon will get this one. Similar to Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton, she's the easiest place to honor a beloved Best Picture contender that looks more and more unlikely to win other categories. Bizarrely enough, the EEAAO dominance, even in the screenplay categories, might help her along. Farrell's dwindling chances further make her case as the best person to win The Banshees of Inisherin some gold.
Curtis and Bassett share the same sort of narrative to victory, both propelled by illustrious careers with their film/role's genre trappings as the biggest handicap. Right now, I'd rank their chances thusly:
- Condon – The Banshees of Inisherin sole win?
- Bassett – A living legend that should have an Oscar already.
- Curtis – Legend aided by frontrunner love. Will split votes with Hsu.
- Hsu – EEAAO's most traditional Oscar-y performance.
- Chau – Just happy to be included.
EUROCHEESE: I'll complete our trio: While this is the last race I would bet on, if I was placing a bet, I'd go with Jamie Lee Curtis. Races like this are all about momentum, and Cláudio, I agree that momentum seems to have shifted away from Bassett. BAFTA didn't make me blink because I knew as soon as she was nominated for BAFTA that Condon was winning there. In 2007, I remember thinking Swinton was a slight surprise, which was not the case this year.
Curtis, on the other hand, felt out of the blue. Bassett was the veteran expected to win, and if the momentum was there for Condon, she could easily have taken it. Hearing the crowd cheer when Curtis gave her "I am an actor" introduction made me realize how much actors respect her, I'm assumingly in part for her season-long cheerleading for her film and leading lady. She's also in a film that seems to be only gaining momentum. Her win would mean EEAAO would tie Streetcar and Network for their number of acting Oscar wins, but I honestly don't think voters consider things like that.
I don't ascribe to the notion that films with high nomination counts have to take home a win, especially when it comes to films heavily focused on dialogue and acting. Condon did an excellent job, but I don't think audiences left her film thinking about her as the standout. I thought Swinton completely stole Michael Clayton with her nervy villain portrayal. Bassett runs away with Wakanda, but it's a Marvel movie that didn't show up in Best Picture. To me, Condon feels like one member of a great ensemble. No examples spring to mind of when that translated to a win (though feel free to tell me otherwise in the comments). Movies like Lady Bird, Up in the Air, all the way back to The Turning Point - movies that won't land a tech win often go home empty handed.
MARK: Fair point. What’s wild to me is that at the beginning of this (already long) Oscar season, the veteran who seemed most plausibly in the hunt was Curtis (and for a decidedly nontraditional role, no less). But then Bassett followed suit and started racking up nominations *and* significant wins. If it truly does come down to veteran vs. veteran, Bassett just seems to be more of a gravitas actor, while Curtis the venerable actors’ actor. (The SAG win is certainly no small shakes in that regard.)
With Bassett, Academy voters would be rewarding her career as much as (if not more than) a solid performance in a film perhaps less likely to win elsewhere. With Curtis (and, to a lesser degree, Condon), voters have ample opportunity to—and likely will—reward the film elsewhere. Will they, with Oscar voting underway, do this calculus? Chances are no, but we also are talking about the body at large, who may respect Curtis and her nearly 50-year career far more than her previous Oscar misses would suggest. (For the record, she easily could’ve been nominated at least basically once every decade since the ‘80s, and each would’ve been totally inspired.)
I’m leaning Bassett still…slightly. Ever so slightly.
CLÁUDIO: To close us off, I'll say this – no matter who comes out on top, we'll finish the season with a good supporting actress winner.
Even Hsu, who I rank fifth in the lineup in terms of personal preference, will receive a standing applause from me if/when she collects the Oscar. Indeed, her Spirit Awards speech might be my favorite from the whole season, holding up the idea of cinema (and theater) as inherently collaborative and all the better for it. Between that lovely moment, Bassett's imperious excellence, Curtis' enthusiasm, Condon's BAFTA homage to her menagerie, and the hypothesis of a thoroughly shocked Chau – the Supporting Actress category feels bound to be a highlight of this year's Academy Awards.
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Reader Comments (22)
My hope is for Stephanie Hsu to sneak with the win. Although I see the reasoning for Condon pulling through, I hate the idea that the Academy "wants to reward the movie with at least one win". I think Tilda won in her year on the merits of a great performance and uniform love for her as an actor, while Michael Clayton hasn't exactly lasted in the public consciousness (did it really then either?). I thought Angela was going to "do the thing" at SAG and the Oscars, but I think lingering distaste for Marvel films will ruin her chances (unless the tech branch overwhelming supports her). Jamie Lee gave a smart SAG acceptance speech and has been rooting for the movie (and Yeoh) for a while now, but I think the schtick (even if genuine) isn't going to be the same for Oscar voters.
My gut says Curtis because voting opened and closed right as EEAAO was peaking and her SAG win was pretty ideally timed. Condon's from a well-loved movie, Bassett has a well-loved career...Curtis has both, plus timing and being a true cultural icon. It's not just "why doesn't she have an Oscar" but "why did it take 40+ years to get her a nomination?" And the nepo baby (not a criticism) angle will help her just as it helped solidify Laura Dern among the Academy rank and file.
No one would surprise me, in fact Bassett might be the least surprising outcome if she takes it because she felt like a frontrunner for the longest period of time. I just don't think Condon is a significant enough Hollywood figure to win here and the BAFTA is her big reward.
This is a very exciting year for knowing who'll win in 3 of the categories.
I'd love Bassett to win as i've watched her for 30 years and am still liking what she does but Marvel isn't for me,I actually watched just her scenes and still didn't include her in my top 5.
Curtis has the momentum now but Condon could sneak in unless Farrel surprises in Best Actor which could still happen,she is who i'd like to win.
I just can't say but i'll go Condon though i'm not a fan of her performance,she'd be a Vikander type winner for me.
My Own Ballot in order of preference
Curtis perfect in EEAAO and my personal winner
Hsu loved her
Morton She Said what a corker 10 minutes,Riveting.
Union The Inspection the best performance in the film
Hathaway Armageddon Time I am shocked no-one singled her out all season,not even TFE
Honorable mentions Dolly De Leon,Judith Light,Carey Mulligan,Naomi Merlant,Hong Chau,
If any of the performances stands out as "best" I'd say it's probably Condon's, but not in a major way. That's why I hope Bassett wins. She's such a strong performer (not unlike Blanchett) in everything she does. It's not like she was bad in the movie, she was great.
Nothing would surprise me in this category except Hong Chau somehow winning.
However my gut says Condon takes it. It's a classic "Best Supporting Actress" part, everyone will have seen it, and she has a real arc that stands out even against great performances by Farrell and Keoghan.
I think Bassett and Curtis wind up sort of splitting the "career" vote. Neither performance is really an Oscar type role, and while they are well respected performers, neither is exactly Lauren Bacall or even Ruby Dee (both of whom of course didn't win either). However, I'd give Bassett a slight edge over Curtis out of the two because of EEAAO vote splitting and a more dramatic Oscary arc in her film.
If Hsu wins I think we are heading for a complete EEAAO sweep, which I wouldn't rule out.
"I don't think audiences left her [Condon's] film thinking about her as the standout"
Speak for yourself. That is exactly the thought I walked away with after seeing that film — twice.
I was thinking that the "they're not going to give an acting award to a performer in a Marvel movie" argument was silly. But now I'm remembering they passed up the chance to honor Alec Guinness one last time in STAR WARS (instead, giving it to Jason Robards who had just won the year before). They also passed up the chance to give Ian McKellen an Oscar for LORD OF THE RINGS (instead giving it to Jim Broadbent for the little-seen IRIS).
So maybe Basset is doomed.
A helpful trick I learned since I started doing Oscar predictions is that if either of the supporting categories is in doubt, go with what BAFTA did. That's how I ended up correctly guessing Alan Arkin in 2006, Tilda Swinton in 2007, and Christoph Waltz in 2012 even though none of those were by any means safe bets. So I'm going to try that strategy again and say Kerry Condon wins, which is extra convenient because I do feel like Banshees will win something, and EEAAO seems likelier to win Original Screenplay, I think.
I"m all about going big and chaotic so let's have Hsu win this so we can talk about this race forever. Plus it's my favorite of the nominees.
THAT SAID, yeah there's no bad winner here. It's going to be GREAT to listen to all of their acceptance speeches.
Despite what the article says, Condon is in the most traditional Oscar role — long-suffering wife/mother/sister etc. Hsu, while great, is in a bizarre sci-fi opus. Ditto JLC. Bassett is in a comic book movie. And Chau has barely made a ripple all season. I think it’s Condon by default due to role (a La Mark Rylance and Mahershala Ali 2).
Condon is the heart & soul of the movie, but this looks like another “narrative” category so it should be a tossup between Curtis and Angela Bassett because they are “due” (a resoning I dislike intensely). I have worked with Jamie Lee and I will be cheering HER, because she is such a delight.
i hope they wait until late in the show to present this award to preserve the mystery for as long as possible
I said it before and I say it again: I know Condon delivered the best performance and deserves it.
Nevertheless, my heart is crying full of love: JAMIE LEE CURTIS! ❤️
If I should smackdown them:
Bassett 2-a collection of Oscar clips
Chau 3-If I had to chose one of The Whale actresses would have been Morton
Curtis 4-comedy genius and all the look of the character in general is wonderful
Condon-4.5 she has the best role of the movie for me and it's always refreshing to watch a new face
Hsu 5-she's the one with the best work to do in confront of the other nominees and nails it
@JDM- 2008 Oscars was such an high quality race across all the categories. Micheal Clayton is one of the movies that more you grow, more you appreciate it. It's such a brilliant piece of acting and writing, but I can see wht it doesn't have any fanbase. It's similar to a commited american movies of the 80s in the wrong era.
My mind has decided that a win for Jamie Lee Curtis is also a win for the Ally Sheedys, the Rosana Arquettes and the Daryl Hannahs of the 80's and that is my happy place until Sunday.
JDM and PP92 - People discuss Michael Clayton all the time. Recently, on one of the podcasts I listen to (probably Blank Check or The Film Stage), one of the hosts remarked that it has aged the best of the Best Picture nominees that year.
I just think Bassett would have won SAG if she were going to win. SAG is so populist. Regina King isn't comparable - she was in a smaller film released late in the year (I wasn't able to see it until January), the type of film SAG often ignores. And Curtis benefitted from being the sole EEAAO nominee in her category at SAG. The people who vote for that movie in every category will be divided between Hsu and Curtis. So Condon will win this one.
Agreed, jules—Michael Clayton has aged beautifully because it's the kind of middle-budget grown-up movie Hollywood doesn't make anymore, and all of those age beautifully. The industry should be making five new Michael Claytons every year.
@DK and jules-Of recent Oscar History I think that Judas and the Black Messiah will have this path
jules - Hsu was nominated at SAG.
Tilda Swinton in Michael Clayton is a best-case scenario: a genuinely great performance by an undersung actor, which generally gets overlooked by the Academy. Is it the greatest supporting actress winner of the 2000s, this side of Mo’Nique? Honestly, probably.
Hsu (or Condon) would be an excellent winner; still lean Bassett, whom I love, though.
@Mark Brinkerhoff-oh, no. It's the auteur cinema actress for excellence that also had the time to step by, win an Oscar and then come back to do art in every corner of the world <3