Oscar Volley: When did Best Supporting Actor stop being a contest?
Monday, March 6, 2023 at 8:27AM Team Experience is discussing the various Oscar categories. Here's Ben Miller, Elisa Guidici, and Nick Taylor discussing Best Supporting Actor.
NICK TAYLOR: Hi there, Elisa and Ben! Boy do I feel like we have the easiest acting category to evaluate for this year’s ceremony. Eric Blume and Chris James went over this category over two months ago and though their predictions didn't exactly match they both foresaw 4/5ths of Oscar’s lineup. My predictions were rubber-stamping the SAG list, so seeing Judd Hirsch and especially Brian Tyree Henry get in at the last minute felt like a real surprise to me. Ke Huy Quan, Brendan Gleeson, and Barry Keoghan made it as they were expected to, and even with Keoghan scoring a win with BAFTA, I think Quan’s looking like the most secure acting winner going into Oscar night.
With that being said, and before we get too far into the race, would y’all like to quickly share your favorite supporting actors who didn’t get nominated?
BEN MILLER: It's so rare for an Oscar category to sync up so well with my personal preferences, but here we are. My top four Supporting performances (Quan, Keoghan, Gleeson, Henry) are all nominated. If poor, eternally snubbed Paul Dano would have made his way in, it might have been perfect. I want to point out the one performance that never gained any traction but I could not get enough of...Edward Norton in Glass Onion. It takes an acute level of self-awareness to be able to portray a megalomaniacal idiot and Norton did it without ever losing any of the fun he is obviously having. If directing Motherless Brooklyn has forced him to be in more mainstream fare and performances like this are the result, then I consider that film a success.
Brian Tyree Henry in "Causeway"
ELISA GIUDICI: I am on the same page with you Ben. Speaking of snubs, Paul Dano is the first name that came to my mind. I mean, seeing Judd Hirsch there for a performance with such limited screen time while Dano is being ignored again… hurts a little. Another favorite of mine is Ben Wishaw. Brilliant actor with a strong performance in Women Talking, not to mention he has the kind of profile that deserves award recognition. In the realm of pure speculation and daydreaming, I really want to mention Benoît Magimel, who has just won a Cesar for his mind-blowing performance in Albert Serra’s Pacifiction - Tourment sur les îles. That level of intensity in such a demanding role deserves special recognition.
A couple of words about Brian Tyree Henry, too. We can surely say this nomination is the win. It was a surprise for the general audience, but it was fascinating hearing his name pop up here and there in the weeks before the announcement -- there was some quiet but consistent work happening behind the scenes and people loved the work. Here's another "surprise" from Apple's PR department after CODA. I am so happy to see him grow in recognition and fame. Amazing actors like him sometimes don't get this kind of opportunity. Some have to wait years, even decades, to be in the right place, at the right time.
NICK: I don’t love them as much as y’all do, but it would’ve been nice to see career troupers like Paul Dano or Ben Whishaw finally get nominated. Maybe Oscar’s propensity against recognizing pretty young things doing the sort of sensitive, supportive work actresses earn attention for should’ve warned us that Paul Dano would miss, but it still stings. Even scarier to consider: if we’re waiting for Ben Whishaw to stop being pretty, they might never notice him!
It turns out with Ke Huy Quan and Brian Tyree Henry on Oscar’s ballot, my top two performances in this category were actually nominated, and that’s pretty fuckin stellar! Other than them, my other favorites were way, way off the map. If you’re looking to beef up either of your male acting lineups, check out Onoda: 10,000 Nights in the Jungle, where Tetsuya Chiba and Silence’s Issey Ogata are tremendous as, respectively, the older version of Onoda’s loyal second-in-command and their fierce, inspiring commanding officer. Georg Friedrich’s observer/reactor in Great Freedom tells a whole story of his own, provoked and awakened in different ways by Franz Rogowski’s character. Andrew Scott in Catherine Called Birdy starts off quite silly, but keeps deepening his key relationships without losing the film’s light, spirited tone.
Elisa, thank you for singling out Brian Tyree Henry’s nomination. I’m still dismayed he didn’t get any traction for If Beale Street Could Talk, so seeing his endlessly reliable self make it this year makes me so goddamn happy. He won’t win, but I bet we’ll see him walk to the podium someday.
Ben, is there a particular nomination that means a lot to you from this group? And, to spin this back into a slightly more predictive tone, do you think any of these guys have a chance to overtake Ke Huy Quan?
Brendan Gleeson in "Banshees of Inisherin"
BEN: Do I love Brendan Gleeson's performance on its own merit, or because he looks exactly like my grandfather? Who's to say. Seriously though, that performance is a tough one to pull off. Without the balancing of prickliness but inherent likeability, the film falls apart. Despite the film never showing the "good" times between Colm and Padraic, without the audience belief they were once friends, the film doesn't work. Gleeson is spectacular in the role. Of all the Supporting Actor nominees, he seems to be the one who has been getting lost in the shuffle.
As far as Quan losing? The short answer: no. This is Ke Huy Quan's Oscar and I will not take the "well, actually..." arguments seriously. The long answer: this is the perfect narrative. A child star with obvious screen charisma is deprived of further success because of racial attitudes. After years of behind-the-scenes work, he is given this incredible role and runs away with the film. The performance itself is a perfect blend of chameleon action comedy, which stands strong on its own even if his campaign wasn't relying on a narrative. That being said, the narrative is perfect. Just to add the cherry on top, there is no awards stop Quan has not been involved in and fully engaged with. Brendan Fraser and Jamie Lee Curtis are close runners-up, but Quan is the winner of the pre-Oscar press tours. He has never been anything less than an utter delight. He will be an exceptional Supporting Actor winner and I hope it leads to nothing but good things going forward.
Barry Keoghan in "Banshees of Inisherin"
Anyone who tries to talk themselves into Keoghan as the surprise winner is the same people who were saying Ethan Hawke could surprise J.K. Simmons on Oscar night in 2014. You can tell yourself that all you want, but it's not going to happen. By the way, when did Best Supporting Actor become such an afterthought? Since 2007 (Bardem in No Country for Old Men), Supporting Actor has had a dominating, runaway winner every year except 2012 (Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained) and 2015 (Mark Rylance in Bridge of Spies). Only two competitive races in sixteen years seem odd.
ELISA: Okay I will be the “well,actually…” person in this volley. I am not saying Ke Huy Quan is not the favorite as he is the closest thing to a sure bet. But I would argue a Keoghan victory is not in the realm of impossible (though it's unlikely). My reasoning here connects with your view about Grandpa Gleeson: an actor so exemplary that we take for granted performances like this one. Barry Keoghan had the traction to enter the race despite having to split votes with Gleeson in a much larger role so some people are really loving his performance. Now that no one seems to be interested in Gleeson anymore, could Keoghan gain yet more votes from Banshee fans?
I am the Devil's advocate here, mind you. Quan has the perfect narrative, but Keoghan has the perfect scene (maybe more than one). His remarkable performance has at least two outbursts, that are powerful even out of context, as "Oscar clips". Plus, they are in a movie in which they happen naturally, not with the framework of “ok now let's put here this super intense scene in which you cry your heart out in a sort of monologue to gain attention from the Academy voters”. The scene in which he is kindly rejected by Kerry Condon is the perfect example.
Ke Huy Quan, future Oscar winner, in "Everything Everywhere All At Once"
If The Banshees of Inisherin had not lost momentum against Everything Everywhere All at Once I would be slightly more convinced. However, I would still put a 5% chance of seeing Ke Huy Quan without an Oscar in his hands at the end of Oscar Night. Barry Keoghan would be a surprise, but anybody else a pure shock.
NICK: If anyone could pull an upset it would be him, but I don’t fundamentally believe it’s going to happen. Banshees probably has better odds in Original Screenplay and Supporting Actress at this point. Ke Huy Quan has everything in his corner to receive an Academy Award, and I for one couldn’t possibly be happier for him. It’s a great narrative, and it helps that he’s giving a phenomenal performance in an upstart Best Picture frontrunner. Whatever else might happen with the other acting races, I feel completely comfortable predicting he’ll continue to run away with this category.
Do we have any last notes on this lineup? I'm realizing now that none of us have mentioned Judd Hirsch in The Fabelmans, who's pretty solid in a role that basically demands showboating. I have nothing against Hirsch's performance, and though it's always nice to see Oscar remember one-time nominees from years past, I would've liked to see Dano get that slot. He doesn't have a shot at winning, but who really does besides Quan?
Judd Hirsch in "The Fabelmans"
BEN: There is an alternate universe where The Fabelmans has a chance at winning Best Picture and dragging Hirsch along with it, but it's not this universe. I am very much on the Dano > Hirsch side of things, but Hirsch gives a fun, bombastic performance and I understand why it got nominated. This is Quan's award to lose and I don't see any way it doesn't happen.
ELISA: I think we covered everything from this universe, considering we knew from the start where this prize is going.
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Reader Comments (11)
Wow, I guess I didn’t realize how rarely this category has been competitive in recent history. I think you could argue 2016 was somewhat competitive as well since Dev Patel won the BAFTA and the Globe went to the non-Oscar-nominated Aaron Taylor-Johnson, but I still seem to remember Mahershala Ali being considered a nearly sure thing. The following year it looked like it was going to be a tight race between Sam Rockwell and Willem Dafoe early in the season, but then Rockwell started sweeping and became an absolute lock by Oscar night.
@Edwin: that 2016 race was fun! And also just go back one year prior; in 2015, Stallone wins Globe, non-Oscar nominated Idris Elba wins SAG, Mark Rylance wins BAFTA. And then Oscar went with the most boring choice by copying BAFTA with Rylance. Snore…
For this year, I’d say Judd Hirsch is clearly the best of the lineup. Not sure I’d keep anyone else on my own ballot. This is a disappointing lineup. But I will say that I can live better with Quan winning the Oscar knowing he didn’t do a full sweep at BAFTA. That wasn’t a sweep-worthy performance. It was wonderful to see at least a little variety in the winner.
I'm pretty in love with this line up. Gleeson's the weak link for me, but I still like the performance, and it's nice to see him catch some glory.
I would've liked to see Dano in the mix instead - and I can't argue with Henry, Keoghan or Quan (who are perfect), or Hirsch, which is exactly the kind of limited performance I'm always happy to see nominated.
And Edwin's right - 2016 wasn't a slam dunk - I had a lot of fear that Patel would scrape out the win over Ali.
As someone who's keeping a twitter thread of all Ke Huy Quan's wins, it's clear who I'm rooting for. But I am always uneasy to say "lock" for anyone especially for someone of color. I won't breathe easy until he has that gorgeous Oscar in his hands.
THAT SAID, I was ecstatic to see Keoghan get the BAFTA. Hope this encourages him to keep taking risks. I haven't seen Brian Tyree Henry's movie, but since he should've had one for Beale Street (and has been great on so many other films), I'm very happy for him.
Ben Whishaw not making it in was a bit of a shock to me. The lack of acting awards traction that movie received is perplexing considering the love for the movie itself. I knew the women were probably vote splitting amongst themselves, but Whishaw was the lone guy so I thought he would be an easier get. Plus he had some awards heat on the TV side, from the critical hit This is Going to Hurt. When he was blanked by the BAFTAs I knew it was a lost cause since they love him (he has won 2 BAFTA TV awards). Anyways, VERY odd to me.
The only performances I would've wanted SOME attention to would be Ben Aldridge in SPOILER ALERT (which everyone seemed to have ignored) and Theo Rossi in EMILY THE CRIMINAL. At least the latter got a Spirit nom.
But hey we could've gotten Tom Hanks and Eddie Redmayne here. So I'm pretty pleased at the quintet we ended up getting.
Besides Ke Huy Quan, the other supporting performance that has stayed with me this year, in thoughts, and musing, and memory, is Anthony Hopkins in “Armageddon Time”.
In a different year, we might have heard more talk about Stanley Tucci in “I Wanna Dance With Somebody”, playing a biopic supporting role with grace and skill.
I was also impressed by Harry Melling in “The Pale Blue Eye”. Melling seems to have caught the attention of respected film makers, so I would expect there will be more showcases for him coming up.
And yes, I too was delighted by Brian Tyree Henry’s nomination. I love him in everything I’ve seen him in.
I'm glad you both mentioned Whishaw and it's nothing to do with his attractiveness why I liked him in Women Talking,he's not my type
For all the fuss over the women it was he who left the biggest impression,the final smile he gives Mara is heartbreaking,I loved the scene where he gives her water from his hands and that rooftop scene and the response to hearing his mother's death referenced had some of the best acting in the film.
I was surprised Nat didn't find room for him on his Film Bitch awards.
I also felt the older women Ivey and McCarthy were better than the lauded Foy very one note and Buckley okay in a difficult part.
My Ballot now looks like this Quan,Redmayne,Whishaw,Henry,Keoghan but it pains me to leave Dano off.
Anthony Hopkins blows all these gentlemen out of the water, let's be honest. In fact, so does Jeremy Strong from the same film.
I REALLY wanted to like Ben Whishaw in "Women Talking" (it's my top movie of the year with only a few more to see), but **SPOILER ALERT** his climactic scene at the end was a little too weepy and maudlin for me. That quick little subplot seemed to come out of nowhere -- could've done without it honestly. The only black mark on an otherwise very compelling film.
@Paranoid -- "Whishaw a little too weepy" Absolutely. They totally lost me.
Incredibly boring category as usual. At least we will all get Quan right on our predictions, right?
I'm totally Team Hirsch.
Some performances with little screen time make all difference.
Like Hopkins in "The Silence of the Lambs"... like Tracy in "San Francisco"... like Straight in "Network"... like Hirsch in "The Fabelmans".
He's powerful, a force of nature. Hirsch delivers a masterclass in acting.
My runner-up is Barry Keoghan, brilliant, tragic and heart-touching in "The Banshees of Inisherin".
Paul Dano should have gone in leading actor. This category aside from Quan and the Banshee Boys was really up in the air. If Michelle went lead, he should have as well. That category was way less competitive. I think he would have gotten in.
My ranking of the nominees:
1- Quan
2- Hirsh
3- Keoghan
4- Gleeson
5- Henry