Weekly Column! Just in time for weekly chart updates. You heard me!
Let's start with an oft-forgotten fact: there are no "locks" until films are open and seen by the Academy. Even then, positive reactions don't always translate into votes. War Horse would be the right example. It feels like a winner by way of pedigree (Spielberg and Team), topic (World War), intangibles (the Broadway play on the same topic is a hit!) and early peeks (the trailer), but until voters are actually watching any movie from start to finish, you can't know.
Until you have seen a movie there is no way to consider how it tugs at your own heart (or doesn't), how it seizes your imagination (or doesn't) and how your instant reaction sizes up with general consensus. Instant reactions do not happen in lockstep with voting (at least not usually) and consensus -- which is say the wisdom of masses, media favoritism, and opinions from one's own social circle -- absolutely affects individual response though people regularly feign otherwise.
Seeing the pictures is key and without the keys, aren't locks mere abstractions?
J. Edgar is another prime example. It's got the pedigree team, the baity topic and genre, but the second people are watching it things will change, for better or worse. I can't say that I'm hopeful after seeing the dull musty trailer, which plays more like the zombie corpse of an Oscar contender rather than a lively shiny hopeful. But then, I didn't get the Clint Eastwood Appreciation Gene so I readily admit that I am no representative sample.
To win nominations a film (or performance) must not only win hearts, minds and imaginations but it must stack up favorably against its competition. In other words "locks" for films or actors no one has seen are an absurd notion. Take War Horse again... will its message resonate with voters as much as The Help's? Will the young male lead (no, not the horse) inspire them or make them feel as protective as his counterpart in Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close might? Will anything within War Horse, stimulate like the wit and adult soul of Moneyball? Does the equine war drama have any lighter moments and are they as effervescent or charming as the best scenes from The Artist or Midnight in Paris?
If nominations were held RIGHT NOW, right this second, and all films that have been seen by a lot of people -- i.e. multiple festivals (whether they're technically open yet or not) were eligible these would be your only "Locks"
BEST PICTURE (right now)
- Midnight in Paris
- The Artist
- The Help
- Moneyball
And more divisive pictures would be battling it out for the "happy to be nominated" slot(s) be they critical darlings (Tree of Life, Drive) or populist hits (Potter, Apes). But of course, none of the four aforementioned right-now "locks" are locked up. There is no way to win a game before competing game pieces are on the board... unless they forfeit by which we mean "Delayed Until 2012".
All of the increasingly crazy "LOCKED! CERTAIN TO WIN!" Oscar talk in the past couple of weeks for films we're already familiar with makes you think about which films can maintain their "#1 fans" and which films will lose steam. In a year with ten beloved respected hit films, for example, some of them which would have had easy roads to nominations in a weaker year would have to fall by the wayside. The new(ish) voting process will give us a Best Picture lineup that can include anywhere from 5 to 10 nominees depending on the complex % of #1 (and other) votes found on 6,000+ ballots votes. This shifting number of nominees is undoubtedly designed to illuminate whether a year was strong, standard, or absurdly rich but it's all theoretical. We don't know how it'll play out. Our suspicion* is that it won't illuminate the quality of any given year but will instead merely show us which film years reach easier consensus as to what is "BEST". Since we've been talking Spielberg's War Horse consider another Spielberiffic year: 1993. It was a terrific film year. Anyone who lived through it will be nodding their heads in agreement. But does anyone have any doubt that Schindler's List and The Piano hogged way more than a usual % of #1 spots, and there probably wasn't room for more than 5 Best Picture nominees anyway.
Best Actor if they voted right now (but they don't)
- BRAD PITT in a walk. The lineup I'm predicting (Clooney, Pitt, DiCaprio, DuJardin and Oldman) looks all set in stone right now... which means it has to be wrong, right? Someone will chip away at it with a sharp campaign and deface it.
Best Actress if they voted right now (but they don't)
- VIOLA DAVIS vs. GLENN CLOSE. (Yes, yes, Meryl Streep may eventually be a threat but remember: no keys = no locks.) Even if this weren't my favorite annual category I'd find this race quite fascinating as of now because there is only one (widely seen) power and that's Viola. The rest are either indie darlings or largely unseen. Feels wide open to me. How about you?
Best Supporting Actress if they voted right now (but they don't)
- I really have no clue, do you? Or does JESSICA CHASTAIN, who may not even be nominated, win in the imaginary "oscars right now" game simply by virtue of her ubiquity and obvious range? But the further we move into the year the more it feels like a nomination for The Help is possible, right? I recently raved about Anjelica Huston (50/50) but with such a small role in a film that's not going to shake up Oscar in anyway traction will be difficult.
Best Supporting Actor if they voted right now (but they don't)
- ALBERT BROOKS vs. CHRISTOPHER PLUMMER in a neck and neck race for the "lifetime achievement Oscar"... but will they still be locking horns by the time nominations roll around in another 100 days? I wouldn't risk money (yet) on both even being nominated though surely at least one of them will. My predicted lineup in this category (Brooks, Plummer, Branagh, von Sydow and Mortensen) strikes me as remarkably free of age and career diversity. It's composed entirely of men over 50 who've all been nominated and never won each of whom could make a case for a "career" style statue grab. And it doesn't even include Nick Nolte who is another threat within that subcategory of actors... before you ever get to the Hoffmans, Cumberbatches, and Hills. This can't possibly last given the sedative this category usually becomes but right now, it looks alive with possibility and valid intense differences of opinions.
SCREENPLAYS if they voted right now (but they don't)
- In Original Screenplay we'd have to consider that MIDNIGHT IN PARIS is in the lead with THE ARTIST and BRIDESMAIDS in a bizarre battle for second place. That's three comic pieces, though. Right now I've predicted them all but perhaps that's too "light" of a lineup by the time January rolls around. Over in Adapted, MONEYBALL would be your new leader obviously.
- I just saw it so I'm freshly in love but at the moment I'm all about Iran's A SEPARATION... and the buzz is all about Lebanon's WHERE DO WE GO NOW? (which I have not yet seen). So perhaps this year's Foreign Category will have a Middle Eastern theme... at least in terms of the shortlist. Who will win is very hard to foresee in this category ahead of time each year.
VISUAL CATEGORIES and AURAL CATEGORIES
- These fascinate me more than they do most people because I always think it's interesting to see which non Best Picture contending beauties can survive the coattails nominations that Best Picture hopefuls tend to bring in the craft categories (whether or not they're deserving... sometimes they are). The Tree of Life, Drive, Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method and Captain America are just a few examples of handsomely mounted successes that may have a tough road toward individual category success. Can they win craft nominations when they're up against more populist or more period or genre lush epics like War Horse, J. Edgar, The Help, Moneyball, War Horse and the Harry Potter finale?
Benedict Cumberbatch investigates the Oscar annex of Price Waterhouse in "Tinker Tailor Oscar Mine"
A lot of questions. Few keys and no locks.
I trust you'll let me know if you have a different suspicion about how the new voting system will affect the Best Picture outcome (I'm guessing 7 best picture nominees) and where we are with all of these races right now. But please take a look around. There's some new text and new rankings and spruced up charts. Oscar predictions are like plants. If you don't water them, they die. This is the plant. Your comments are the water. You know what to do.